VOA标准英语2009年-Analysts Worry Threatening N. Korea with S

North Korea detonated an underground nuclear explosion in the northeast of the country - its second nuclear test since 2006.
　
A graph measured by S. Korea's National Earthquake Center shows the seismic¹ wave of N. Korea's nuclear test, Seoul, 25 May 2009

David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security, has been following North Korea's nuclear program for many years.

"In 2006, it [North Korea] was trying to achieve an explosion of four kilotons and it only got about half a kiloton - so it was generally viewed as not very successful. This time, it looks to be anywhere from one to five kilotons and if North Korea was trying to get four kilotons, then you'd have to judge the test a success," he said.

Albright says as a comparison, the bomb the United States detonated over Nagasaki at the end of World War II had a yield of 20 kilotons.
　
A 07 Apr 2009 video grab by N. Korean TV shows a three-stage white rocket, being launched from an undisclosed location in N. Korea

In addition to the nuclear explosion, Pyongyang has over the past few days also tested several short range surface-to-air and surface-to-ship missiles.

Jim Walsh is a nuclear and North Korea analyst² with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [MIT, in Cambridge Mass.]. He questions the value of those tests.

"Back in the summer of 2006 around July 4, when the North Koreans had broken the moratorium³ on long-range missile tests and had their first long-range missile test in 10 years or so, they also fired off a bunch of short-range missiles. There really is no reason why you'd want to do these things together from a scientific or engineering point of view," he said.

For his part, Albright says the short-range missile tests were simply part of North Korea's military research and development program. However he says the missiles - which are not equipped to carry nuclear warheads - were fired to deliberately⁴ coincide with the underground nuclear test.

Experts are asking why would the North Koreans detonate a nuclear device at this time?

Jim Walsh says there are two theories.
　
A photo released 22 May 2009 of Kim Jong Il(l) watching an Air Force flight training at an unidentified location in N. Korea

"One says they are doing this for bargaining - that by creating a crisis, it improves their position when they enter negotiations," he explained. "And then a second thread of thought suggests that it's not for bargaining; it has nothing to do with external foreign policy or external affairs - but rather it is driven by internal political dynamics⁵; that because there is some sort of political transition, a leadership transition going on with Kim Jong-il's health problems, that North Korea, like many countries in that situation, takes dramatic action to sort of reassert themselves and to give it an expression of strength at a time of uncertainty," he said.

The international community has strongly condemned⁶ Pyongyang's detonation⁷ of a nuclear device. But analysts⁸ say there is little it can do to pressure North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program.

Analysts also question the future of the six-party talks - a negotiating process that began in August 2003 bringing together representatives from the United States, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea.

Pyongyang withdrew from the talks following international condemnation⁹ of its April 5 test launch of a long-range ballistic missile.

David Kay, former chief nuclear weapons inspector¹⁰ with the (Vienna-based) International Atomic Energy Agency, believes the talks - as he put it - are dead.

"Not only are they dead because the North Koreans have expressed no interest in returning to them - I think it is recognized in Washington at least and I think around the world that it would be foolish to reward the North Koreans' sending off a nuclear device by rushing back to talks," Kay said.

However David Albright says placing more sanctions on Pyongyang and, as he put it, continuing to demonize North Korea is not the way forward. He says the new U.S. administration must send a high-level mission to that country.
　
Envoys¹¹ to the Six-Party Talks on N. Korea's nuclear issue shake hands before a new round of talks in Beijing, (2008 file photo)

"Not to offer incentives¹². Not to offer threats either. But to go there and try to have a meeting with Kim Jong-il and say look, what's going on? Do you want this confrontation¹³ to escalate¹⁴?" He asked. "And in a sense hold out an open hand: nothing in it, not gifts, not threats. But find out what's going on. Because history tells us that North Korea is happy to escalate in these kinds of conflicts and so who knows how that is going to end," he noted¹⁵.

Albright says threatening North Korea with sanctions and isolation¹⁶ is guaranteed to create escalation¹⁷ and not capitulation.

1 seismic   

a.地震的，地震强度的

参考例句：

• Earthquakes produce two types of seismic waves.地震产生两种地震波。
• The latest seismic activity was also felt in northern Kenya.肯尼亚北部也感觉到了最近的地震活动。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 moratorium   

n.(行动、活动的)暂停(期)，延期偿付

参考例句：

• The government has called for a moratorium on weapons testing.政府已要求暂停武器试验。
• We recommended a moratorium on two particular kinds of experiments.我们建议暂禁两种特殊的实验。

4 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

5 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

6 condemned   

adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He condemned the hypocrisy of those politicians who do one thing and say another. 他谴责了那些说一套做一套的政客的虚伪。
• The policy has been condemned as a regressive step. 这项政策被认为是一种倒退而受到谴责。

7 detonation   

n.爆炸；巨响

参考例句：

• A fearful detonation burst forth on the barricade.街垒传来一阵骇人的爆炸声。
• Within a few hundreds of microseconds,detonation is complete.在几百微秒之内，爆炸便完成了。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 condemnation   

n.谴责; 定罪

参考例句：

• There was widespread condemnation of the invasion. 那次侵略遭到了人们普遍的谴责。
• The jury's condemnation was a shock to the suspect. 陪审团宣告有罪使嫌疑犯大为震惊。

10 inspector   

n.检查员，监察员，视察员

参考例句：

• The inspector was interested in everything pertaining to the school.视察员对有关学校的一切都感兴趣。
• The inspector was shining a flashlight onto the tickets.查票员打着手电筒查看车票。

11 envoys   

使节( envoy的名词复数 )； 公使； 谈判代表； 使节身份

参考例句：

• the routine tit for tat when countries expel each other's envoys 国家相互驱逐对方使节这种惯常的报复行动
• Marco Polo's travelogue mentions that Kublai Khan sent envoys to Malgache. 马可波罗游记中提到忽必烈曾派使节到马尔加什。

12 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

13 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

14 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

15 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

16 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

17 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句