VOA标准英语2013--US Oil Surge Could Impact Mideast Geopolitics

US Oil Surge Could Impact Mideast Geopolitics

The IEA report describes a 'supply shock' from the United States rippling¹ through world oil markets.

"The key to it is the resurgence² of shale³ development in the United States," John Mitchell, an oil market analyst⁴ at policy institute Chatham House in London. "It has been building up over some years, but only in the last three years has it reached big proportions."

Shale oil and gas are extracted using pressurized fluid to blast the product out from the rock, a process known as hydraulic⁵ fracturing or 'fracking.' Some U.S. states and European countries have banned the practice over fears that it may cause pollution and even earthquakes.

But the technology will help the United States become largely self-sufficient in oil by 2035, according to the IEA. U.S. gas production is expected to overtake Russia.

When that happens, the concept of energy security will no longer dictate⁶ U.S. foreign policy.

"Will the Middle East still be so dependent on U.S. military support?" Mitchell asked. "I am sure the answer is probably yes, but maybe the U.S. does not have quite the same interest in that as it did before."

A more energy self-sufficient United States has dramatic implications for Middle East politics, according to Christopher Davidson of England's University of Durham, and  author of the book After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse⁷ of the Gulf⁸ Monarchies⁹.

"What we are also likely to see is the United States start to hedge its positions a bit better on the Gulf monarchies," Davidson said. "As it loses the dependent nature of this economic partnership¹⁰, we are perhaps starting to see the U.S. already starting to reach out to opposition¹¹ groups in Bahrain, for example, and increasingly in Saudi Arabia."

In the midst of the Arab Spring, Davidson says many oil-rich Gulf monarchies are trying to pacify¹² their populations with government handouts¹³. Falling receipts from oil exports could trigger political upheaval¹⁴.

"Within just a couple of years we'll have a public spending deficit¹⁵ in most of the Gulf monarchies," Davidson said. "At the same time, we are also seeing the demonstration¹⁶ effect of the Arab Spring in Syria and north Africa starting to embolden¹⁷ the people of these countries. They are no longer willing to tolerate autocracy¹⁸."

Davidson says Gulf states will be gearing their oil exports eastwards¹⁹ in the coming decades.

"However, what is missing is the security relationship that the Western powers have historically provided to the Gulf," he said. "The Gulf states know, and I suspect they are bluffing²⁰, that China and the Pacific Asian states cannot replace the West as this ultimate security guarantor."

Analysts²¹ say the oil boom will give the U.S. economy a competitive advantage with cheap energy supplies no longer vulnerable to global geopolitics. 

1 rippling   

起涟漪的，潺潺流水般声音的

参考例句：

• I could see the dawn breeze rippling the shining water. 我能看见黎明的微风在波光粼粼的水面上吹出道道涟漪。
• The pool rippling was caused by the waving of the reeds. 池塘里的潺潺声是芦苇摇动时引起的。

2 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

3 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 hydraulic   

adj.水力的；水压的，液压的；水力学的

参考例句：

• The boat has no fewer than five hydraulic pumps.这艘船配有不少于5个液压泵。
• A group of apprentics were operating the hydraulic press.一群学徒正在开动水压机。

6 dictate   

v.口授；(使)听写；指令，指示，命令

参考例句：

• It took him a long time to dictate this letter.口述这封信花了他很长时间。
• What right have you to dictate to others?你有什么资格向别人发号施令？

7 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

8 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

9 monarchies   

n. 君主政体, 君主国, 君主政治

参考例句：

• It cleared away a number of monarchies. 它清除了好几个君主政体。
• Nowadays, there are few monarchies left in the world. 现在世界上君主制的国家已经很少了。

10 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

11 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

12 pacify   

vt.使(某人)平静(或息怒)；抚慰

参考例句：

• He tried to pacify the protesters with promises of reform.他试图以改革的承诺安抚抗议者。
• He tried to pacify his creditors by repaying part of the money.他为安抚债权人偿还了部分借款。

13 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

14 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

15 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

16 demonstration   

n.表明，示范，论证，示威

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• He gave a demonstration of the new technique then and there.他当场表演了这种新的操作方法。

17 embolden   

v.给…壮胆，鼓励

参考例句：

• Emboldened by the wine,he went over to introduce himself to her.他借酒壮胆，走上前去向她作自我介绍。
• The Prime Minister was steadily emboldened by the discovery that he faced no opposition.发现自己并未遭到反对，首相渐渐有了信心。

18 autocracy   

n.独裁政治，独裁政府

参考例句：

• The revolution caused the overthrow of the autocracy.这场革命导致了独裁政体的结束。
• Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy.很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

19 eastwards   

adj.向东方（的），朝东（的）；n.向东的方向

参考例句：

• The current sets strongly eastwards.急流迅猛东去。
• The Changjiang River rolls on eastwards.长江滚滚向东流。

20 bluffing   

n. 威吓，唬人 动词bluff的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• I don't think he'll shoot—I think he's just bluffing. 我认为他不会开枪—我想他不过是在吓唬人。
• He says he'll win the race, but he's only bluffing. 他说他会赢得这场比赛，事实上只是在吹牛。

21 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。