VOA标准英语2015--世界经济论坛:冲突是全球最危险的因素

 

World Economic Forum¹: Conflict Top Global Risk Factor 世界经济论坛:冲突是全球最危险的因素

According to a new report, the world is a very risky² place and many are not prepared for it. The World Economic Forum has released its Global Risks 2015 report that listed the greatest threats to stability over the next 10 years.

The report defined a global risk as an “uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.”

Experts were surveyed about the world’s problems and decided³ the number one threat to world stability is – the risk of international conflict. The decision is based on likelihood and potential impact.

The World Economic Forum, the British risk assessment⁴ firm Marsh⁵ & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group were the main partners in the report.

John Drzik, president of global risk and specialties⁶ for Marsh & McLennan Companies, said, “We also had [a] major contribution from academic partners. And then the survey results you’re referring to were a survey of over 800 experts from business, government, academia and NGOs -- people who know risk and could comment on the relative scale of different types of risk.”

The report contained two Top Five lists.

“The idea is to say which ones are more likely to happen and which ones will have the biggest impact if they do happen. And I tend to think the impact scale also tends to have more of a longer horizon to it," he said. "So you see the things that are on that list, like water crisis or climate change and so forth⁷ that’ll be longer developing risk, but if they do evolve in certain directions could have significant impact ; whereas some of the ones that are more frequent are perhaps more current. People are expecting things in the current environment to unfold and so tend to have a shorter term character to them.”

The complete top five in terms of likelihood were: interstate conflict with regional consequences; extreme weather events; failure of national governance; state collapse⁸ or crisis and high structural⁹ unemployment or underemployment.

As for the top five in terms of impact: water crises; rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases; weapons of mass destruction; interstate conflict and failure to adapt to climate change.

The report said, “2015 stands out as a year when geopolitical risks -- largely absent from the landscape of leading risks for the past half-decade -- return to the fore¹⁰.”

Drzik said, “Geopolitical risk is rising and you see that with interstate conflict as the top risk on the likelihood side of the agenda. And then on the impact side of the analysis water crisis is a top risk. And I think another core theme within the report is the growth of societal risks.”

He said rising geopolitical risk was expected.

“It’s not a surprise when you look at what’s in the headlines these days – Russia and the West in a much different relationship than perhaps a year ago and then events in the Middle East, events in East Asia unfolding," he said. "It’s a prominent issue right now and very much more in the central stage right now than perhaps a couple of years ago where I think the list was dominated more by economic risks in the aftermath of the financial crisis.”

Drzik said that the growing threat of terrorist attacks also plays into it. Mitigating¹¹ any of the risk factors, he said, will require collaboration¹² among multiple stakeholders.

“It really does require an extensive dialogue amongst the stakeholders and then I think some very carefully designed international, as well as, national regulation and governance frameworks in order to grapple with some of these risks,” he said.

Drzik said, for example, recent cyber attacks – like that launched against SONY – have stirred much debate over how to prevent them. He said such risks affect governments, private industry and society as a whole. And then there are growing ethical¹³ concerns and implications regarding synthetic¹⁴ biology, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence.

Drzik said, however, geopolitical risks are causing some countries to become more “protectionist and isolated” from the global community. That could make reaching collaborative agreements to mitigate¹⁵ risks much more difficult.

He added that due to the findings of the Global Risks report there could be a higher level of anxiety and tension at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos from January 21-24.

1 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

2 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

5 marsh   

n.沼泽，湿地

参考例句：

• There are a lot of frogs in the marsh.沼泽里有许多青蛙。
• I made my way slowly out of the marsh.我缓慢地走出这片沼泽地。

6 specialties   

n.专门，特性，特别；专业( specialty的名词复数 )；特性；特制品；盖印的契约

参考例句：

• Great Books are popular, not pedantic. They are not written by specialists about specialties for specialists. 名著绝不引经据典，艰深难懂，而是通俗易读。它们不是专家为专业人员撰写的专业书籍。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 文学
• Brain drains may represent a substantial reduction in some labor force skills and specialties. 智力外流可能表示某种劳动力技能和特长大量减少。 来自辞典例句

7 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

10 fore   

adv.在前面；adj.先前的；在前部的；n.前部

参考例句：

• Your seat is in the fore part of the aircraft.你的座位在飞机的前部。
• I have the gift of fore knowledge.我能够未卜先知。

11 mitigating   

v.减轻，缓和( mitigate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Are there any mitigating circumstances in this case ? 本案中是否有任何情况可以减轻被告的罪行？ 来自辞典例句
• A sentencing judge is required to consider any mitigating circumstances befor imposing the death penalty. 在处死刑之前，要求量刑法官必须考虑是否有任何减轻罪行之情节。 来自口语例句

12 collaboration   

n.合作，协作；勾结

参考例句：

• The two companies are working in close collaboration each other.这两家公司密切合作。
• He was shot for collaboration with the enemy.他因通敌而被枪毙了。

13 ethical   

adj.伦理的，道德的，合乎道德的

参考例句：

• It is necessary to get the youth to have a high ethical concept.必须使青年具有高度的道德观念。
• It was a debate which aroused fervent ethical arguments.那是一场引发强烈的伦理道德争论的辩论。

14 synthetic   

adj.合成的，人工的；综合的；n.人工制品

参考例句：

• We felt the salesman's synthetic friendliness.我们感觉到那位销售员的虚情假意。
• It's a synthetic diamond.这是人造钻石。

15 mitigate   

vt.（使）减轻，（使）缓和

参考例句：

• The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
• Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。