VOA标准英语2015--世界银行:发生埃博拉的国家,经济增长遭受16亿的损失

 

World Bank: Ebola Countries Face $1.6B in Lost Economic Growth 世界银行:发生埃博拉的国家,经济增长遭受16亿的损失

The World Bank estimates Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will lose more than $1.5 billion this year in economic growth due to Ebola. However, the economic effect on the West Africa region overall is now expected to be much lower than previous forecasts.

World Bank Senior Economist¹ Dave Evans, co-author of the latest report on Ebola’s economic consequences, said the three worst affected² countries have seen their economies contract. Prior to the outbreak, good economic growth had been expected.

“Essentially, the economic slowdown has been profound. This is a huge change for these economies and a real challenge,” he said.

When determining the economic impact of Ebola, the World Bank studies how people react to the disease.

“With the economic impact of Ebola it really comes through these reactions based on fear – or what we often call aversion behavior – people taking decisions to avoid any exposure to the disease," he said. "One of the challenges with that is that even as the disease starts to get under control and we have fewer cases, it doesn’t necessarily mean that investors³ immediately start making new plans to open new mines or set up new factories. The effects can be quite enduring.”

He said that phone surveys show that despite a decline in the number of new Ebola cases, job losses remain high and food insecurity persists.

Evans said there are previous examples of the effects of fear on behavior.

“I think it’s most reminiscent of what we saw with SARS and in the early days of AIDS where there was a lot of uncertainty⁴ about exactly how people could be exposed," he said. "And as a result, people take sometimes extreme reactions to avoid any interaction with these economies.”

In October, the World Bank estimated the West Africa region could suffer up to $25 billion in losses in 2015. But that estimate is now sharply lower.

Evans said, “What we’ve done is we’ve spoken to our economists⁵ in every country around sub-Saharan Africa. What we observe now is that the actual impact we’re seeing for all of Africa – not just West Africa – is more on the order of $500 million – very, very small -- even if we look at a bad case scenario⁶. So, a scenario where the epidemic⁷ does spread more in the region we’re looking at about $6.2 billion for all of Africa. So that’s much, much smaller than the $25 billion we were talking about for just West Africa alone.”

The senior economist said the revised forecast is due to – what the bank calls -- “intensive global and national responses to the epidemic over the past several months.”

“The disease,” he said, “has been controlled significantly within the countries. So, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have taken lots of action to improve safe burials, improve treatments, change behavior -- where people are careful to avoid exposure. And at the same time, neighboring countries have taken strong action to protect themselves. And we see this in Nigeria, Senegal and Mali.”

Nigeria, Senegal and Mali did have a small number of Ebola cases, but all three have been declared Ebola-free.

Evans cautioned, however, that until the number of Ebola cases reaches zero, there is always a chance that the epidemic could grow much worse again.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

7 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。