VOA标准英语2015--World Bank: Dimmer 2015 for Developing Countries

World Bank: Dimmer 2015 for Developing Countries

In recent years, the economic outlook for many developing countries appeared bright. But the World Bank has lowered its expectations for 2015, saying they now face a series of tough challenges.

The World Bank projects developing countries will grow by 4.4 percent this year, instead of the earlier forecast of 4.8 percent.

Ayhan Kose, Director of the bank’s Development Prospects¹ Group, gives a major reason why prospects dimmed this year.

“Developing countries as a group have been slowing down since 2010," he said. "It’s fair to say that. But what happened in 2014 and a part of this year [was] a significant drop in oil prices started weighing on activity, especially in oil exporting economies.”

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report outlined problems in the so-called emerging economies.

Kose said, “Brazil, now we’re expecting, is going to have a recession. Russia is going through a painful recession. Both of those are big emerging market economies. And you look at the emerging market economies, for example, China is going through an orderly slowdown. South Africa has serious structural² bottlenecks³. All of these when you put them together led to a forecast revision.”

Bad news for developing oil-exporting countries, he said, is good news for importers. 

“It is a windfall for the global economy. And we still think that the benefits of oil price decline will be materialized during the next 12 to 18 months. For oil exporting economies it’s a painful adjustment. But for oil importing economies there’s no question it’s a positive development.”

The decline in oil prices is causing a global economic shift.

“Ultimately, with the decline in oil price what you see is a real income transfer from oil-exporting economies to oil-importing economies – the consumers, the spenders,” he said.

The World Bank official said, however, consumers are still hesitant to use their savings⁴ from lower oil prices to buy things. Spending spurs economies, but there’s still a lack of consumer confidence.

So what about those oil exporting developing counties – like Nigeria and Angola -- that pinned their hopes on their oil reserves?

 “For this year, we reduced our growth forecast for Nigeria and Angola. And in both countries you see policy adjustment as well. Nigeria reduced their expenditures⁵, the fiscal⁶ spending. Angola, they reduced the fiscal spending. They are taking measures to adjust to this new environment. At the same time, over the medium term, we expect them to think about diversification⁷ -- to think about more investment in infrastructure⁸ -- investment in human capital,” Kose said.

He said that while diversification may be a painful process for Nigeria and Angola, in the long-term it could help them weather future economic shocks. For example, investing in non-oil sectors⁹ could allow them to have more trading partners.

The bank’s forecast for the turmoil-plagued Middle East and North Africa is just 2.2 percent this year. Officials are monitoring the various crises, saying they could trigger a rise in oil prices.

Another factor expected to negatively affect many developing nations is the predicted rise in U.S. interest rates.

Kose said, “The U.S. interest rates are the reference interest rates. When the U.S. short-term policy rate increases that has an impact for the cost of borrowing at different maturities¹⁰. So it can have a widespread effect across the different interest rates [for] consumers and firms at which they are borrowing. And it will have an impact on the cost of international borrowing, as well.”

A region that’s the exception to the World Bank forecast for developing nations is South Asia. It has a projected growth rate of 7.1 percent this year.

“South Asia is becoming the fastest growing region. The main driver of that is India with [a] strong monetary¹¹ policy framework, willingness to undertake reforms. All of these send a very strong signal that medium term growth prospects are going to get stronger,” he said.

The World Bank Global Economic prospects report is more optimistic for 2016 and 2017. Growth forecasts for developing countries for those two years are 5.2 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.

1 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

2 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

3 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

5 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

8 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

9 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

10 maturities   

n.成熟（maturity的复数形式）

参考例句：

• Maturities of commercial paper range from three days to nine months. 商业票据的期限从3天到9个月不等。 来自互联网
• German federal government bonds issued with maturities of up to 30 years. 指期限可长达30年的德国联邦政府债券。 来自互联网

11 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。