默克尔如何应对民粹政党崛起

 　　The state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is something of a backwater.

　　梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州（Mecklenburg-Vorpommern，以下简称梅前州）有点儿闭塞。

　　Otto von Bismarck is said to have quipped that, if the world was about to end, he would move to Mecklenburg as it would take a further 50 years for the apocalypse to arrive there.

　　据说奥托?冯?俾斯麦(Otto von Bismarck)曾打趣说，如果世界末日到来，他将会搬到梅克伦堡去住，因为大灾难还得50年才能抵达那里。

　　Yet the election to its state legislature put this rural corner of northeastern Germany at the heart of a long-overdue debate.

　　然而该州立法机构的选举让这个位于德国东北部的偏远地区成为一场拖延已久的辩论的焦点。

　　Chancellor¹ Angela Merkel’s Christian² Democrats³ (CDU) finished third in Sunday’s poll behind the rightwing populist Alternative for Germany and the Social Democrats (SPD).

　　德国总理安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)的基民盟(CDU)在上周日梅前州议会选举中的得票位列第三，落后于右翼民粹政党德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)和社民党(SPD)。

　　The question is how to deal with the AfD now it is here to stay.

　　问题是如何应对现在已经站稳脚跟的德国新选择党。

　　The difficulty is that this is a party to which many of the usual rules of German political life do not seem to apply.

　　困难在于，这是一个似乎不适用诸多德国政治常规的政党。

　　Normally, voters shun⁴ parties whose top officials publicly fight among themselves.

　　在正常情况下，选民不会支持最高层官员公开内讧的政党。

　　Not so with the AfD.

　　这并不适用于德国新选择党。

　　Public mudslinging among party leaders does not appear to be putting people off.

　　该党领导人彼此公开诋毁似乎并没有让人们放弃支持。

　　Moreover, voters normally abandon their support for anti-establishment parties once a particular problem is solved or is no longer at the top of the political agenda.

　　此外，一旦某一特定问题得到解决或者不再处于政治议程的首位，选民通常就会放弃对反建制政党的支持。

　　This is what happened in the early summer of 2015 when the crisis in the eurozone was solved, for the time being at least, with a third bailout deal for Greece.

　　当2015年夏初相关各方就希腊第三轮纾困达成协议、欧元区危机得到解决（至少暂时得到解决）的时候就是这样。

　　The AfD’s opinion poll ratings went down almost immediately.

　　德国新选择党的民调支持率几乎应声下跌。

　　Not so this time.

　　这次却不是这样。

　　The massive influx⁵ of refugees and migrants from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East has long since slowed to a trickle⁶ yet the AfD is still going strong.

　　来自叙利亚和其他中东地区的难民和移民已经从大规模涌入转变为零星进入，然而德国新选择党仍在壮大。

　　This is bad news for Ms Merkel.

　　这对默克尔来说是坏消息。

　　Her style is pragmatic rather than emotional or charismatic.

　　她的风格是务实型、而非情感型或魅力型。

　　But it is emotion and fear that are fuelling the rise of the AfD, and the chancellor appears to have no answer to it.

　　但正是情感和担忧促成了德国新选择党的崛起，默克尔似乎没有解决办法。

　　Nevertheless, she will not budge⁷.

　　然而，她不会动摇。

　　Last week, she reaffirmed her refugee policy.

　　上周，她重申了自己的难民政策。

　　I don’t regret anything, she said in an interview with the Bild newspaper.

　　她在接受德国《图片报》(Bild)采访时表示：我不后悔任何事。

　　In the wake of the CDU’s third place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, party officials, as well as ordinary members, are getting nervous.

　　基民盟在梅前州议会选举中的得票位列第三位之后，党内官员以及普通党员越来越感到担忧。

　　They ask anxiously whether the party can still win elections with Ms Merkel at the helm.

　　他们不安地质问，在默克尔掌舵下，基民盟还能否赢得选举。

　　At the same time, adding to the sense of helplessness, they know that there is no obvious or plausible⁸ alternative to her.

　　与此同时，他们也知道没有明显或貌似合理的替代人选，这更让他们感觉无助。

　　Win or lose, the party is chained to Ms Merkel, who will urge her colleagues and supporters to be patient.

　　无论赢得还是输掉选举，基民盟都与默克尔休戚相关，她将敦促同僚和支持者保持耐心。

　　In December, a CDU convention is supposed to re-elect her as party leader.

　　在今年12月，默克尔有望在基民盟大会上再次当选为领导人。

　　It is highly likely that she will use the occasion to announce her intention to run for the chancellorship⁹ again.

　　她届时很可能宣布有意再次竞选总理。

　　In short, the AfD is not going away and nor is Ms Merkel.

　　简言之，德国新选择党不会走开，默克尔也不会。

　　So the CDU must decide whether the taboo¹⁰ on coalition¹¹-building with the AfD will be permanent.

　　因此基民盟必须决定，不能与德国新选择党缔结联盟的禁忌是否是永久性的。

　　The discussion in the party will be painful, as much as the one the SPD had to undergo when the formerly¹² communist Die Linke party did not vanish after reunification in 1990.

　　该党将会进行痛苦的讨论，就像是在1990年两德统一后，原共产主义党派德国左翼党(Die Linke)没有消亡的时候，社民党不得不展开的讨论那样。

　　Bringing the AfD into the fold might be a way to defang a populist movement that is clearly anti-establishment and xenophobic.

　　拉拢德国新选择党可能大大削弱显然是反建制和排外的民粹运动。

　　AfD officials say openly that they do not want to be in government but they cannot explain why.

　　德国新选择党官员公开表示，他们不想上台执政，但他们无法说清原因。

　　Pressing them on this point might be a more effective way of draining support for the populist party than any of the other strategies that the CDU has attempted.

　　与基民盟已尝试的其他战略相比，在这一点上施压可能会更为有效地削弱该党的支持。

　　Unfortunately, Ms Merkel is not a particularly daring or audacious politician.

　　遗憾的是，默克尔不是特别勇敢或者大胆的政客。

　　In all likelihood, she will try to keep on doing business as usual instead of broaching¹³ the delicate subject of coalition or co-operation with the AfD.

　　她将很有可能像往常那样行事，而不是提出与德国新选择党组建联盟或合作的敏感话题。

　　The chancellor might even tacitly count on the AfD entering the Bundestag after the elections in autumn 2017 because, if it does, it will be mathematically impossible to construct a governing majority without her and the CDU.

　　默克尔可能甚至暗中希望新选择党在2017年秋季选举之后进入德国联邦议院，因为如果该党进入联邦议院，在缺少默克尔和基民盟的情况下，组成执政所需的多数席位从数学角度来说是不可能的。

　　The paradox¹⁴ is that a strong AfD will probably help Ms Merkel stay in power for another term.

　　矛盾之处在于，一个强大的新选择党很可能将帮助默克尔再连任一届。

1 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

2 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

3 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 shun   

vt.避开，回避，避免

参考例句：

• Materialists face truth,whereas idealists shun it.唯物主义者面向真理，唯心主义者则逃避真理。
• This extremist organization has shunned conventional politics.这个极端主义组织有意避开了传统政治。

5 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

6 trickle   

vi.淌，滴，流出，慢慢移动，逐渐消散

参考例句：

• The stream has thinned down to a mere trickle.这条小河变成细流了。
• The flood of cars has now slowed to a trickle.汹涌的车流现在已经变得稀稀拉拉。

7 budge   

v.移动一点儿；改变立场

参考例句：

• We tried to lift the rock but it wouldn't budge.我们试图把大石头抬起来，但它连动都没动一下。
• She wouldn't budge on the issue.她在这个问题上不肯让步。

8 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

9 chancellorship   

长官的职位或任期

参考例句：

• For instance, Chien Wei-chang can perhaps still keep his post as professor but not the vice-chancellorship. 比如钱伟长，恐怕教授还可以当，副校长就当不成了。
• The first televised debate between candidates for the chancellorship was judged a draw last night. 昨晚竞选长官职位的第一场电视辩论以平局告终。

10 taboo   

n.禁忌，禁止接近，禁止使用；adj.禁忌的；v.禁忌，禁制，禁止

参考例句：

• The rude words are taboo in ordinary conversation.这些粗野的字眼在日常谈话中是禁忌的。
• Is there a taboo against sex before marriage in your society?在你们的社会里，婚前的性行为犯禁吗？

11 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

12 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

13 broaching   

n.拉削；推削；铰孔；扩孔v.谈起( broach的现在分词 )；打开并开始用；用凿子扩大（或修光）；（在桶上）钻孔取液体

参考例句：

• Before broaching the subject of this lecture, I should like to recall that the discoveries of radium and of polonium were made by Pierre Curie in collaboration with me. 在开始讨论这次演讲的话题之前，我还想回忆一下，镭和钋发现是皮埃尔·居里与我合作完成的。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A: Can you use broaching to make a gear? 你能用拉削技术制作齿轮吗？ 来自互联网

14 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。