特朗普为美国工人叫屈有道理吗

 　　North America’s share of global output has fallen much less than that of Europe or Latin America over the past 20 years, undermining US President Donald Trump²’s claims that unfair trade deals have been detrimental³ to American workers in particular.

　　过去20年里，北美在全球产出中所占份额的降幅远远小于欧洲或拉美，这削弱了美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)关于不公平贸易协议尤其不利于美国工人的说法。

　　Since 1997, North America’s share of global output has fallen from 28.5 per cent of the total to a forecast 24.1 per cent this year, a decline of 15 per cent, according to data from Euromonitor, a research group.

　　研究集团欧睿(Euromonitor)的数据显示，自1997年以来，北美在全球产出中所占份额从28.5%持续下降，今年预计降至24.1%，总降幅为15%。

　　But western Europe’s share has slumped⁴ 31 per cent over the same period, with its share set to fall below 20 per cent for the first time in 2017, compared with 29.1 per cent in 1997. Latin America has fared almost as badly, with its share slumping⁵ by more than a quarter to 5.1 per cent.

　　但同期西欧所占的份额下降了31%，在1997年为29.1%，而2017年预计将首次降至20%以下。拉美的情况几乎同样糟糕，其占比下降逾四分之一，今年将降至5.1%。

　　All are grappling with the growing power of Asian economies, which are on track to account for 40 per cent of global output this year, up from 26.3 per cent in 1997.

　　所有地区都在努力应对亚洲经济体实力不断增强的局面。今年，亚洲占全球产出的份额料将达到40%，高于1997年的26.3%。

　　“The shift of the past 20 years has been the expansion of global supply chains which saw the integration⁶ of Asia, especially China, into the global manufacturing sector,” said William Jackson, senior emerging market economist⁷ at Capital Economics.

　　“过去20年中出现的变化是全球供应链扩张，亚洲、尤其是中国融入了全球制造业，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级新兴市场经济学家威廉?杰克逊(William Jackson)说。

　　Mr Trump has claimed that “horrible” trade deals signed by his predecessors⁸ allowed American jobs to slip away to Mexico and China, and called the move to quit the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership⁹ deal a “great thing for the American worker”. But the data suggest other European and Latin American nations have lost out much more.

　　特朗普声称，他的前任们签署的“可怕”贸易协议让美国的工作岗位得以流向墨西哥和中国，退出有12国签署的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)“对美国工人而言是伟大的事情”。但数据表明，欧洲和拉美国家失去的更多。

　　Indre Cesniene, head of industrial research at Euromonitor, said: “In 2017?.?.?.?Asia will account for 70 per cent of all high-tech¹⁰ goods produced globally, with virtually all major companies having production capacities in the region.”

　　欧睿工业研究主管因德雷?切斯尼内(Indre Cesniene)说：“2017年……在全球生产的所有高科技产品中，亚洲将占到70%，几乎所有大公司都在该地区拥有生产能力。”

　　Asia also accounts for more than half of global production of intermediate goods and machinery¹¹. Across manufacturing as a whole, Asia is forecast to have a 45.5 per cent share this year.

　　在全球的中间产品和机械生产领域，亚洲所占份额也在50%以上。就整个制造业而言，亚洲今年预计占到45.5%的份额。

　　Separate figures from the UN suggest that, between 1990-2015, China went from the world’s 8th-largest manufacturer to its largest, South Korea from 12th to fifth, India from 14th to sixth, and Indonesia from 18th to 11th.

　　来自联合国(UN)的数据则表明，从1990年到2015年期间，中国从世界第8制造业大国上升至第一位，韩国从第12位升至第5位，印度从第14位升至第6位，印尼从第18位升至第11位。

　　Asia remains¹² far weaker in service sectors¹³, however, accounting¹⁴ for less than a quarter of turnover¹⁵ in areas such as finance and insurance, and business services.

　　然而，亚洲在服务业方面仍然较弱，在金融保险和商业服务等领域的营收总额中占比不足四分之一。

　　Euromonitor estimated that Asia’s share of global output will grow further, to almost 49 per cent of the total by 2025, with a 75 per cent share in sectors such as textiles and transportation equipment.

　　欧睿估计，亚洲在全球产出中所占份额将进一步增长，到2025年将达到近49%，在纺织品和运输设备等行业的份额将达75%。

　　But Mr Jackson said this advance was “unlikely to continue at the same pace,” given rising protectionism and the fact that one-off boosts such as China joining the World Trade Organisation¹⁶ in 2001 cannot be repeated. “We’re already seeing signs that the integration of manufacturing supply chains has probably reached a peak,” he said.

　　但杰克逊表示，鉴于保护主义加剧以及中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)等一次性刺激不可重复，这种进步“不太可能以同样的速度继续下去”。“我们已看到制造业供应链的整合可能已经见顶的迹象，”他说。

　　Ms Cesniene said she did not envisage¹⁷ Mr Trump making much of a dent¹ in Asia’s rise, arguing that manufacturers, such as automakers, want to be in the region as it is increasingly where their customers are based.

　　切斯尼内表示，她预计特朗普不会对亚洲崛起造成很大打击。她辩称，制造商（如汽车制造商）想要在亚洲立足，因为他们在那里的客户越来越多。

　　The figures are based on national accounts data and industry surveys, standardised by Euromonitor to strip out computational and methodological differences.

　　上述数字基于国民账户数据和行业调查，欧睿对数据进行了标准化处理，以消除计算和方法上的差异。

1 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 detrimental   

adj.损害的，造成伤害的

参考例句：

• We know that heat treatment is detrimental to milk.我们知道加热对牛奶是不利的。
• He wouldn't accept that smoking was detrimental to health.他不相信吸烟有害健康。

4 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

5 slumping   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的现在分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Hong Kong's slumping economy also caused a rise in bankruptcy applications. 香港经济低迷，破产申请个案随之上升。
• And as with slumping, over-arching can also be a simple postural habit. 就像弯腰驼背，过度挺直也可能只是一种习惯性姿势。

6 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

10 high-tech   

adj.高科技的

参考例句：

• The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展，这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
• The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。

11 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

14 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

15 turnover   

n.人员流动率，人事变动率；营业额，成交量

参考例句：

• The store greatly reduced the prices to make a quick turnover.这家商店实行大减价以迅速周转资金。
• Our turnover actually increased last year.去年我们的营业额竟然增加了。

16 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

17 envisage   

v.想象，设想，展望，正视

参考例句：

• Nobody can envisage the consequences of total nuclear war.没有人能够想像全面核战争的后果。
• When do you envisage being able to pay me back?你看你什么时候能还我钱？