2014年经济学人 世界经济 比看起来更糟

The world economy

Weaker than it looks

Growth is healthy in America and Britain. But most of the world economy is in trouble

FOR the American and British economies it has been a long road out of the woods, but the journey is nearing its end. America's unemployment rate fell below 6% in September. Britain's economy, where output was up 3.2% in the year to June, is growing faster than any other big rich country's. Central bankers are counting the days until they can raise interest rates.

Virtually everywhere else, however, the news is grim and getting grimmer. The euro zone, the world's second-biggest economic area, seems to be falling from a feeble recovery back into outright¹ recession as Germany hits the skids². Shockingly weak industrial production and export figures mean Germany's GDP is likely to shrink for the second consecutive³ quarter—a popular definition of recession. Japan, the world's third-biggest economy, may also be on the edge of a downturn, because April's rise in the consumption tax is hurting spending more than expected. Russia's and Brazil's economies are stagnant⁴, at best. Even in China, still growing at a suspiciously smooth 7.5% a year, there are worries about a property bust⁵, a credit bubble and a fall in productivity.

Such a lopsided world economy is unlikely to be stable. Either the weakness outside the Anglo-Saxon world proves temporary, or it will spook financial markets and darken the outlook everywhere. The conventional view is that global growth will strengthen in 2015 as America's surge buoys⁶ other places, and as the recent weakness elsewhere proves temporary. The IMF reckons global growth will rise to 3.8% next year. This newspaper, however, is more worried on two counts. First, today's weakness, especially in the euro area, could last longer than investors⁷ expect; and second, the lopsided growth could itself fuel destabilising shifts, particularly in the dollar.

The euro area is in a far bigger mess than the headline figures suggest because its growth has long been flattered by Germany. Italy has been in recession for two years; France's economy has been stagnant for months. Now that Germany is in trouble, the chances of a Japan-style deflationary spiral have risen sharply. German policymakers remain pigheadedly opposed to the stimulus⁸ the euro area needs. Even as their own economy has stalled, they are determined⁹ to balance the budget in 2015. They want to force France to cut its deficit¹⁰, they show little interest in a euro-wide investment scheme, and their opposition¹¹ explains why the ECB is going so slowly with a bond-buying scheme to address deflation. The quantitative¹² easing that markets expect is months off, if it happens at all.

The euro zone's prospects¹³ are grimmest, but other weaklings are also a long way off recovery. In Japan, for instance, the economy is due to get clobbered¹⁴ by another rise in the consumption tax in October 2015. And with commodity prices falling and China slowing, it is hard to see how other emerging economies will accelerate, even if America is growing.

Optimists¹⁵ see the stronger dollar as a simple means to export America's recovery elsewhere; but that too is more complicated than it first looks. The greenback is certainly on the rise, fuelled by faster growth and the prospects of tighter monetary¹⁶ policy from the Fed. On a trade-weighted basis, it is up 6.3% since July, and is at a six-year high against the yen¹⁷ and two-year high against the euro.It looks likely to go higher: dollar surges tend to stretch over several years.

This should be good news for the weaklings: their exporters will get more competitive, while pricier imports will ward¹⁸ off deflation. But it could also bring risks. Currencies have a tendency to overshoot. Firms and governments that have borrowed in dollars in recent years will have to pay more. Dollar borrowing by emerging-market firms has risen dramatically since 2008, to an estimated 70% of total bond issuance. And the temporary boost from a cheaper currency could provide the likes of France, Italy and Brazil (and increasingly Germany) yet another excuse to put off structural¹⁹ reform.

The prescription²⁰ for the weaklings is simple: heal thyself. Rather than waiting for America to solve their problems, the laggards²¹ should treat the recent spate²² of bad news as a wake-up call. The ECB should start bond-buying forthwith. The Japanese government should delay the rise in the consumption tax until the economy recovers. Countries that can afford it, notably²³ Germany, should invest in infrastructure²⁴. And even America and Britain should be wary²⁵, especially over tightening²⁶ monetary policy too quickly. There is a lot that can go wrong—and they don't want to be dragged back into those woods again.

1 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

2 skids   

n.滑向一侧( skid的名词复数 )；滑道；滚道；制轮器v.（通常指车辆） 侧滑( skid的第三人称单数 )；打滑；滑行；（住在）贫民区

参考例句：

• The aging football player was playing on the skids. 那个上了年纪的足球运动员很明显地在走下坡路。 来自辞典例句
• It's a shame that he hit the skids. 很遗憾他消沉了。 来自辞典例句

3 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

4 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

5 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

6 buoys   

n.浮标( buoy的名词复数 )；航标；救生圈；救生衣v.使浮起( buoy的第三人称单数 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• The channel is marked by buoys. 航道有浮标表示。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Often they mark the path with buoys. 他们常常用浮标作为航道的标志。 来自辞典例句

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

10 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

11 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

12 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

13 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

14 clobbered   

v.狠揍， （不停）猛打( clobber的过去式和过去分词 )；彻底击败

参考例句：

• The paper got clobbered with libel damages of half a million pounds. 这家报纸被罚以五十万英镑的诽谤损害赔偿金。
• The robbers clobbered the shopkeeper to make him open the safe. 强盗们殴打店主迫使他打开保险箱。 来自辞典例句

15 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

18 ward   

n.守卫，监护，病房，行政区，由监护人或法院保护的人（尤指儿童）；vt.守护，躲开

参考例句：

• The hospital has a medical ward and a surgical ward.这家医院有内科病房和外科病房。
• During the evening picnic,I'll carry a torch to ward off the bugs.傍晚野餐时，我要点根火把，抵挡蚊虫。

19 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

20 prescription   

n.处方，开药；指示，规定

参考例句：

• The physician made a prescription against sea- sickness for him.医生给他开了个治晕船的药方。
• The drug is available on prescription only.这种药只能凭处方购买。

21 laggards   

n.落后者( laggard的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I would say the best students at Chengdu are no laggards. 依我看成都最优秀的学生绝不逊色。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The laggards include utilities and telecommunications, up about % and 12% respectively, to MSCI. 据摩根士丹利资本国际的数据，涨幅居后的包括公用事业和电信类股，分别涨了约%和12%。 来自互联网

22 spate   

n.泛滥，洪水，突然的一阵

参考例句：

• Police are investigating a spate of burglaries in the area.警察正在调查这一地区发生的大量盗窃案。
• Refugees crossed the border in full spate.难民大量地越过了边境。

23 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

24 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

25 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

26 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。