2014年经济学人 俄罗斯和卢布 自己种下的恶果自己承受

Russia and the rouble

As ye sow, so shall ye reap

The collapse¹ in the rouble is caused by Vladimir Putin's belligerence², greed and paranoia³

VLADIMIR PUTIN has successfully suppressed dissent⁴, squeezed out opposition⁵ and clamped down on the media, but he has not been able to control global financial markets. In recent days the rouble has collapsed⁶; it has lost almost 40% of its value over three weeks. This is the biggest crisis of Mr Putin's reign—and it is entirely⁷ his fault.

Mr Putin will no doubt blame all the usual suspects—Western speculators who bet against his currency, Western imperialists who imposed sanctions on his economy, Western economists⁹ who failed to forecast that the oil price (down by half over six months) would fall as far as it has and, of course, Western newspapers that told him that his policies would lead to disaster. But the crisis is the inevitable¹⁰ consequence of Putinism—of aggression¹¹ abroad and a corrupt-and-control economy at home.

Kleptocracy and its consequences

The sanctions were imposed by the West because of his conduct in the Ukraine, where he has, among many things, seized territory, engineered a war and refused to investigate the shooting down of a civilian¹² airliner¹³. Meanwhile, he has failed to reform Russia's economy, leaving it dependent on the energy industry that he has carved up among his friends. Had he chosen to build an economy based on the rule of law and competition rather than patronage¹⁴ and corruption¹⁵, things would have looked very different.

In the short term, there is not a great deal that Mr Putin can do to get his country out of the mess that he has made. A huge interest-rate rise this week, following previous large increases, has not worked. Capital controls are not the answer. They can sometimes be effectively employed against short-term speculation¹⁶, but in this case investors¹⁷ are rightly worried about an economy that is so reliant on one sector¹⁸. Anyway, in such a lawless place, capital controls would be porous¹⁹ and could trigger runs on the banks which the country could ill afford. Russia still has reserves of $370 billion, but it also has foreign-currency debts of more than $600 billion.

To improve the long-term prospects²⁰ of an economy that is heading into a deep recession, two bigger changes are needed. The first is that Russia should pull back from eastern Ukraine and seek some accommodation with the government in Kiev and the West that could lead to the lifting of sanctions. The second is a change to the country's economic model. Mr Putin needs to take advantage of the fall in the value of the currency to diversify²¹ away from excess dependence²² on oil and gas, which make up two-thirds of exports; to improve the competitiveness of manufacturing and high-tech²³ industry; to strengthen the rule of law; and to clean up corruption. To implement²⁴ all this he should replace his pliant²⁵ prime minister (and previous president), Dmitry Medvedev, with a credible²⁶ economist⁸ such as Alexei Kudrin, who was a respected finance minister for 11 years. His oligarch chums might not like this, but Russians would be better off.

Sadly, none of this is likely to happen. Mr Putin will probably double down, railing against Western iniquity²⁷, stifling²⁸ all dissent at home, destabilising Ukraine still more and interfering²⁹ further in other neighbouring countries. And he will pursue a course of growing autarky, severing³⁰ as many of Russia's economic and financial links to the West as he can.

A brazenly³¹ nationalist course will impoverish³² Russia further, making it impossible for Mr Putin to keep delivering rising living standards. He will gamble that the Russian people are foolish enough to trade prosperity for nationalistic fervour. This newspaper hopes he is wrong.

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 belligerence   

n.交战，好战性，斗争性

参考例句：

• He could be accused of passion,but never belligerence.可以说他很冲动，但不能说他爱挑事。
• He was almost back to his belligerent mood of twelve months ago.他故态复萌，几乎又像一年前那样咄咄逼人了。

3 paranoia   

n.妄想狂，偏执狂；多疑症

参考例句：

• Her passion for cleanliness borders on paranoia.她的洁癖近乎偏执。
• The push for reform is also motivated by political paranoia.竞选的改革运动也受到政治偏执狂症的推动。

4 dissent   

n./v.不同意，持异议

参考例句：

• It is too late now to make any dissent.现在提出异议太晚了。
• He felt her shoulders gave a wriggle of dissent.他感到她的肩膀因为不同意而动了一下。

5 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

6 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

7 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

11 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

12 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

13 airliner   

n.客机，班机

参考例句：

• The pilot landed the airliner safely.驾驶员使客机安全着陆。
• The passengers were shepherded across the tarmac to the airliner.旅客们被引导走过跑道去上飞机。

14 patronage   

n.赞助，支援，援助；光顾，捧场

参考例句：

• Though it was not yet noon,there was considerable patronage.虽然时间未到中午，店中已有许多顾客惠顾。
• I am sorry to say that my patronage ends with this.很抱歉，我的赞助只能到此为止。

15 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

16 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

17 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

18 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

19 porous   

adj.可渗透的，多孔的

参考例句：

• He added sand to the soil to make it more porous.他往土里掺沙子以提高渗水性能。
• The shell has to be slightly porous to enable oxygen to pass in.外壳不得不有些细小的孔以便能使氧气通过。

20 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

21 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

22 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

23 high-tech   

adj.高科技的

参考例句：

• The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展，这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
• The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。

24 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

25 pliant   

adj.顺从的；可弯曲的

参考例句：

• She's proud and stubborn,you know,under that pliant exterior.你要知道，在温顺的外表下，她既自傲又固执。
• They weave a basket out of osiers with pliant young willows.他们用易弯的柳枝编制篮子。

26 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

27 iniquity   

n.邪恶；不公正

参考例句：

• Research has revealed that he is a monster of iniquity.调查结果显示他是一个不法之徒。
• The iniquity of the transaction aroused general indignation.这笔交易的不公引起了普遍的愤怒。

28 stifling   

a.令人窒息的

参考例句：

• The weather is stifling. It looks like rain. 今天太闷热，光景是要下雨。
• We were stifling in that hot room with all the windows closed. 我们在那间关着窗户的热屋子里，简直透不过气来。

29 interfering   

adj. 妨碍的 动词interfere的现在分词

参考例句：

• He's an interfering old busybody! 他老爱管闲事！
• I wish my mother would stop interfering and let me make my own decisions. 我希望我母亲不再干预，让我自己拿主意。

30 severing   

v.切断，断绝( sever的现在分词 )；断，裂

参考例句：

• The death of a second parent is like severing an umbilical cord to our past. 父母当中第二个人去世，就象斩断了把我们同过去联在一起的纽带。 来自辞典例句
• The severing theory and severing method for brittle block are studied. 研究裂纹技术应用于分离脆性块体的分离理论和分离方法。 来自互联网

31 brazenly   

adv.厚颜无耻地；厚脸皮地肆无忌惮地

参考例句：

• How dare he distort the facts so brazenly! 他怎么敢如此肆无忌惮地歪曲事实！ 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• "I don't know," he answered, looking her brazenly over. “我也不知道，"他厚颜无耻地打量着她。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

32 impoverish   

vt.使穷困，使贫困

参考例句：

• We need to reduce the burden of taxes that impoverish the economy.我们需要减轻导致经济困顿的税收负荷。
• America still has enough credibility to a more profitable path that would impoverish its creditors slowly.美国尚有足够的信用来让其得以选择一条更加有利可图的路径使它的债权人们渐渐贫困枯竭。