2015年经济学人 欧元区 那种再次下沉的感觉

The euro zone

That sinking feeling (again)

If Germany, France and Italy cannot find a way to refloat Europe's economy, the euro may yet be doomed¹

JUST a few months ago the euro zone's leaders believed that, having weathered the storm, they were set fair at last.

Buoyed² by the promise of Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank,

to do “whatever it takes” to support the currency, confidence had seeped³ back into the continent.

Growth seemed to be returning, albeit⁴ at a slow pace. Troubled peripheral⁵ countries were recovering,

after bail-outs and painful measures to cut budget deficits⁶ and improve competitiveness.

Unemployment, especially among the young, was still desperately⁷ high, but at least in most countries it was falling.

And bond spreads had narrowed sharply, as financial markets stopped betting that the euro would fall apart.

It was an illusion. In recent weeks the countries of the euro zone have begun to take in water once again.

Their collective GDP stagnated⁸ in the second quarter: Italy fell back into outright⁹ recession,

French GDP was flat and even mighty¹⁰ Germany saw an unexpectedly large fall in output (see article).

The third quarter looks pretty unhealthy, partly because the euro zone will suffer an extra drag from Western sanctions on Russia.

Meanwhile, inflation has fallen perilously¹¹ low, to around 0.4%, far below the near-2% target of the European Central Bank,

raising fears that the zone as a whole could fall prey¹² to entrenched¹³ deflation. German bond yields are hovering¹⁴ below 1%, another harbinger of falling prices.

The euro zone stands (or wobbles) in stark¹⁵ contrast with America and Britain, whose economies are enjoying sustained growth.

What started more than four years ago as a banking¹⁶ and sovereign-debt crisis has decayed into a growth crisis that is now enveloping¹⁷ the three biggest economies.

Germany is teetering on the edge of recession. France is mired¹⁸ in stagnation¹⁹. Italy's GDP is barely above its level when the single currency came in 15 years ago.

Since these three countries account for two-thirds of euro-zone GDP, growth in places like Spain and the Netherlands cannot make up for their torpor²⁰.

The underlying²¹ causes of Europe's new ills are three very familiar and interrelated problems.

First, there is a shortage of political leaders with the courage and conviction to push through structural²² reforms to improve competitiveness and,

eventually, reignite growth: the big countries have wasted the two years bought by Mr Draghi's “whatever it takes” commitment.

Second, public opinion is not convinced of the urgent need for deep and radical²³ changes.

And third, despite Mr Draghi's efforts, the monetary²⁴ and fiscal²⁵ framework is too tight, throttling²⁶ growth—which makes structural reforms harder.

Different manifestations²⁷ of these problems can be seen across the euro zone.

But the country that most dramatically epitomises all three is France. This week its embattled Socialist²⁸ president, Fran?ois Hollande,

was forced to reshuffle his government to eject Arnaud Montebourg who, despite being economy minister,

was his own side's most persistent²⁹ critic from the left (see article). Mr Hollande, who came to office in 2012 promising³⁰ a painless future,

is hardly a Thatcherite reformer. But since he appointed Manuel Valls as prime minister in March, he has at least embraced the principle of public-spending cuts,

lower taxes and structural reforms

In theory a new and more cohesive³¹ reforming government could make progress, but public opinion is not remotely prepared for that.

Mr Hollande is not just deeply unpopular; unlike Italy's Matteo Renzi, who has bravely made the case for (as yet undelivered) tough reforms,

the French president has failed to convince voters that painful change, including a reduction in the size of the state, is inevitable³².

Instead, Mr Montebourg and his chums offer the beguiling³³ notion that,

if only the euro zone scraps³⁴ its rules and allows bigger budget deficits and generous enough public spending,

no more painful reforms will be needed, because the economy will miraculously³⁵ lift itself out of danger by its own bootstraps.

Mr Montebourg's argument is all the more seductive because he is right about Europe's third problem:

excessive austerity, largely forced on the continent by Germany.

Mr Draghi has just implicitly³⁶ conceded that fiscal and monetary policy in the euro zone is too tight at the annual economics jamboree in Jackson Hole.

He hinted that he was in favour of quantitative³⁷ easing, which both America and Britain have used, and he called for fiscal policy to do more to encourage growth—

a message plainly aimed at Germany's chancellor³⁸, Angela Merkel. She is the leader who insists most firmly on sticking to the euro zone's rules on fiscal discipline,

just as it is the German Bundesbank that is most strongly against quantitative easing.

Angie, we can say you never tried

Despite the gloom, there should be scope here for a bargain. If Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi can show they are sincere about structural reforms,

Mrs Merkel should be willing to tolerate an easier fiscal stance (including higher public investment in Germany) and a looser monetary policy.

Close your eyes, and you can imagine the three leaders working with the European Commission to complete the single market and pushing through a trade deal with the United States.

Sadly, in the real world, Mrs Merkel has little reason to trust either France or Italy: whenever external pressure on them has eased,

they have promptly³⁹ backtracked on promises of reform. And she has just installed Jean-Claude Juncker, the do-nothing candidate,

as president of the European Commission.

So it will be hard. But without a new push from the continent's leaders, growth will not revive and deflation could take hold.

Japan suffered a decade of lost growth in the 1990s, and is still struggling. But, unlike Japan, Europe is not a single cohesive country.

If the currency union brings nothing but stagnation, joblessness and deflation, then some people will eventually vote to leave the euro.

Thanks to Mr Draghi's promise to put a floor under government debt, the market risk that financial pressures could trigger a break-up has receded⁴⁰.

But the political risk that one or more countries decide to storm out of the single currency is rising all the time.

The euro crisis has not gone away; it is just waiting over the horizon.

1 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

2 buoyed   

v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• Buoyed by their win yesterday the team feel confident of further success. 在昨天胜利的鼓舞下，该队有信心再次获胜。
• His encouragement buoyed her up during that difficult period. 他的鼓励使她在那段困难时期恢复了乐观的情绪。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 seeped   

v.（液体）渗( seep的过去式和过去分词 )；渗透；渗出；漏出

参考例句：

• The rain seeped through the roof. 雨水透过房顶渗透。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Icy air seeped in through the paper and the room became cold. 寒气透过了糊窗纸。屋里骤然冷起来。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

4 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

5 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

6 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

7 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。

8 stagnated   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
• His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句

9 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

10 mighty   

adj.强有力的；巨大的

参考例句：

• A mighty force was about to break loose.一股巨大的力量即将迸发而出。
• The mighty iceberg came into view.巨大的冰山出现在眼前。

11 perilously   

adv.充满危险地，危机四伏地

参考例句：

• They were perilously close to the edge of the precipice. 他们离悬崖边很近，十分危险。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It'seemed to me that we had come perilously close to failure already. 对我来说，好像失败和我只有一步之遥，岌岌可危。 来自互联网

12 prey   

n.被掠食者，牺牲者，掠食；v.捕食，掠夺，折磨

参考例句：

• Stronger animals prey on weaker ones.弱肉强食。
• The lion was hunting for its prey.狮子在寻找猎物。

13 entrenched   

adj.确立的，不容易改的(风俗习惯)

参考例句：

• Television seems to be firmly entrenched as the number one medium for national advertising.电视看来要在全国广告媒介中牢固地占据头等位置。
• If the enemy dares to attack us in these entrenched positions,we will make short work of them.如果敌人胆敢进攻我们固守的阵地，我们就消灭他们。

14 hovering   

鸟( hover的现在分词 )； 靠近（某事物）； （人）徘徊； 犹豫

参考例句：

• The helicopter was hovering about 100 metres above the pad. 直升机在离发射台一百米的上空盘旋。
• I'm hovering between the concert and the play tonight. 我犹豫不决今晚是听音乐会还是看戏。

15 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

16 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

17 enveloping   

v.包围，笼罩，包住( envelop的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Always the eyes watching you and the voice enveloping you. 那眼睛总是死死盯着你，那声音总是紧紧围着你。 来自英汉文学
• The only barrier was a mosquito net, enveloping the entire bed. 唯一的障碍是那顶蚊帐罩住整个床。 来自辞典例句

18 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

19 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

20 torpor   

n.迟钝；麻木；（动物的）冬眠

参考例句：

• The sick person gradually falls into a torpor.病人逐渐变得迟钝。
• He fell into a deep torpor.他一下子进入了深度麻痹状态。

21 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

22 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

23 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

24 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

25 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

26 throttling   

v.扼杀( throttle的现在分词 )；勒死；使窒息；压制

参考例句：

• This fight scarf is throttling me. 这条束得紧紧的围巾快要把我窒息死了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The latter may be used with bypass or throttling valves in the tower water pipework circuit. 近来，可采用在冷却塔的水管系统中设置旁通阀或节流阀。 来自辞典例句

27 manifestations   

n.表示，显示（manifestation的复数形式）

参考例句：

• These were manifestations of the darker side of his character. 这些是他性格阴暗面的表现。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• To be wordly-wise and play safe is one of the manifestations of liberalism. 明哲保身是自由主义的表现之一。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

28 socialist   

n.社会主义者；adj.社会主义的

参考例句：

• China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家，也是一个发展中国家。
• His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。

29 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

30 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

31 cohesive   

adj.有粘着力的；有结合力的；凝聚性的

参考例句：

• She sealed the parcel with cohesive tape.她用粘胶带把包裹封起来。
• The author skillfully fuses these fragments into a cohesive whole.作者将这些片断巧妙地结合成一个连贯的整体。

32 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

33 beguiling   

adj.欺骗的，诱人的v.欺骗( beguile的现在分词 )；使陶醉；使高兴；消磨（时间等）

参考例句：

• Her beauty was beguiling. 她美得迷人。
• His date was curvaceously beguiling. 他约会是用来欺骗女性的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 scraps   

油渣

参考例句：

• Don't litter up the floor with scraps of paper. 不要在地板上乱扔纸屑。
• A patchwork quilt is a good way of using up scraps of material. 做杂拼花布棉被是利用零碎布料的好办法。

35 miraculously   

ad.奇迹般地

参考例句：

• He had been miraculously saved from almost certain death. 他奇迹般地从死亡线上获救。
• A schoolboy miraculously survived a 25 000-volt electric shock. 一名男学生在遭受2.5 万伏的电击后奇迹般地活了下来。

36 implicitly   

adv. 含蓄地, 暗中地, 毫不保留地

参考例句：

• Many verbs and many words of other kinds are implicitly causal. 许多动词和许多其他类词都蕴涵着因果关系。
• I can trust Mr. Somerville implicitly, I suppose? 我想，我可以毫无保留地信任萨莫维尔先生吧？

37 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

38 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

39 promptly   

adv.及时地，敏捷地

参考例句：

• He paid the money back promptly.他立即还了钱。
• She promptly seized the opportunity his absence gave her.她立即抓住了因他不在场给她创造的机会。

40 receded   

v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• The floodwaters have now receded. 洪水现已消退。
• The sound of the truck receded into the distance. 卡车的声音渐渐在远处消失了。