2015年经济学人 土耳其大选会有多少抗议票？

Turkey's election

How big will the protest vote be?

Why the ruling AK party may not do as well on June 7th as in the past

THE Justice and Development (AK) party has won three general elections in a row, most recently in 2011.

Yet although it seems certain to win over 40% of the vote and remain the largest party after the election on June 7th, it is losing ground.

Many things that helped AK are being reversed. The economy, its strongest suit, has run out of steam.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AK's charismatic former prime minister, who became Turkey's first directly elected president in August,

has become increasingly despotic and out of touch. And some opposition¹ parties now look more appealing.

The main centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has changed tack². Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu,

has ditched his shrilly³ anti-Erdogan rhetoric⁴ of old and is hitting AK hard on the economy.

His pledges to double the minimum wage and to improve the lot of some 11m pensioners⁵ may sound populist, yet they have resonance⁶.

Two-thirds of CHP candidates were elected in primaries. And Mr Kilicdaroglu has managed to bring in female candidates such as Selina Dogan,

an ethnic⁷ Armenian lawyer, and Selin Sayek Boke, a respected Arab Christian⁸ economist⁹. Ultra-secular dinosaurs¹⁰ have gone.

Alas¹¹, the newly colourful CHP is still not expected to add much to the 26% it got in 2011.

But that is partly because some supporters are defecting to another opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP).

The HDP is a challenge to Mr Erdogan because his dream of an executive presidency¹² depends on its share of the vote.

Previously¹³ the Kurds fielded independent candidates to get around the minimum 10% threshold for seats in the parliament.

But the HDP is now running nationally. Should it get over 10% of the vote, it will pick up 50-60 seats,

leaving AK well short of the minimum 330 deputies required to propose constitutional changes, including an executive presidency.

Some pollsters think AK might even fall short of the 276 seats it needs for a simple majority.

It would then have to form a coalition¹⁴ with the third main opposition party, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP),

since both the CHP and the HDP say they will not go into government with AK. If, however, the HDP does not clear the 10% hurdle¹⁵,

AK will inherit all its seats, clearing the way not just for a renewed single-party government but perhaps for Mr Erdogan's executive presidency.

The HDP owes its rising fortunes in part to its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas. With his youthful looks and biting wit,

the former human-rights lawyer from Diyarbakir makes Mr Erdogan seem a has-been.

All over Turkey, bejewelled dowagers, hipsters and factory workers say they may vote HDP either because they “like Demirtas” or because “it's the only way to stop Erdogan.” This is a sea change.

The HDP was long seen as the political arm of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the rebels fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984.

Few doubt that the PKK and its imprisoned¹⁶ leader, Abdullah Ocalan, still hold much sway. But a ceasefire that has held since March 2013 has legitimised the HDP.

Winning more seats in parliament would propel the Kurds further into the mainstream¹⁷ and loosen the rebels' grip. Being shut out would have the opposite effect.

Although it was Mr Erdogan who initiated¹⁸ peace with the Kurds, he has hit the campaign trail,

Koran in hand, ranting¹⁹ about Mr Demirtas's supposed “terrorist connections” and lack of faith.

The HDP has to lure²⁰ pro-AK Kurds into switching sides if it is to squeak²¹ past the threshold.

“Kurds in the big western cities like Istanbul and Izmir hold the key,” concludes Behlul Ozkan, a political scientist.

The HDP's victory is “by no means guaranteed”

1 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

2 tack   

n.大头钉；假缝，粗缝

参考例句：

• He is hammering a tack into the wall to hang a picture.他正往墙上钉一枚平头钉用来挂画。
• We are going to tack the map on the wall.我们打算把这张地图钉在墙上。

3 shrilly   

尖声的； 光亮的，耀眼的

参考例句：

• The librarian threw back his head and laughed shrilly. 图书管理员把头往后面一仰，尖着嗓子哈哈大笑。
• He half rose in his seat, whistling shrilly between his teeth, waving his hand. 他从车座上半欠起身子，低声打了一个尖锐的唿哨，一面挥挥手。

4 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

5 pensioners   

n.领取退休、养老金或抚恤金的人( pensioner的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He intends to redistribute income from the middle class to poorer paid employees and pensioners. 他意图把中产阶级到低薪雇员和退休人员的收入做重新分配。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am myself one of the pensioners upon the fund left by our noble benefactor. 我自己就是一个我们的高贵的施主遗留基金的养老金领取者。 来自辞典例句

6 resonance   

n.洪亮；共鸣；共振

参考例句：

• Playing the piano sets up resonance in those glass ornaments.一弹钢琴那些玻璃饰物就会产生共振。
• The areas under the two resonance envelopes are unequal.两个共振峰下面的面积是不相等的。

7 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

8 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 dinosaurs   

n.恐龙( dinosaur的名词复数 )；守旧落伍的人，过时落后的东西

参考例句：

• The brontosaurus was one of the largest of all dinosaurs. 雷龙是所有恐龙中最大的一种。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Dinosaurs have been extinct for millions of years. 恐龙绝种已有几百万年了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

14 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

15 hurdle   

n.跳栏，栏架；障碍，困难；vi.进行跨栏赛

参考例句：

• The weather will be the biggest hurdle so I have to be ready.天气将会是最大的障碍，所以我必须要作好准备。
• She clocked 11.6 seconds for the 80 metre hurdle.八十米跳栏赛跑她跑了十一秒六。

16 imprisoned   

下狱，监禁( imprison的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was imprisoned for two concurrent terms of 30 months and 18 months. 他被判处30个月和18个月的监禁，合并执行。
• They were imprisoned for possession of drugs. 他们因拥有毒品而被监禁。

17 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

18 initiated   

n. 创始人 adj. 新加入的 vt. 开始，创始，启蒙，介绍加入

参考例句：

• He has not yet been thoroughly initiated into the mysteries of computers. 他对计算机的奥秘尚未入门。
• The artist initiated the girl into the art world in France. 这个艺术家介绍这个女孩加入巴黎艺术界。

19 ranting   

v.夸夸其谈( rant的现在分词 )；大叫大嚷地以…说教；气愤地)大叫大嚷；不停地大声抱怨

参考例句：

• Mrs. Sakagawa stopped her ranting. 坂川太太戛然中断悲声。 来自辞典例句
• He was ranting about the murder of his dad. 他大叫她就是杀死他父亲的凶手。 来自电影对白

20 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

21 squeak   

n.吱吱声，逃脱；v.（发出）吱吱叫，侥幸通过；（俚）告密

参考例句：

• I don't want to hear another squeak out of you!我不想再听到你出声！
• We won the game,but it was a narrow squeak.我们打赢了这场球赛，不过是侥幸取胜。