2015年经济学人 贫富皆为 美洲政府都会出钱援助波多黎各

 

Free exchange

自由交流

For richer, for poorer

贫富皆为

One way or another, America's government will end up bailing¹ out Puerto Rico

无论如何，美洲政府都会出钱援助波多黎各

IN DECEMBER, as a winter chill descends² on the continental³ United States, temperatures in Puerto Rico often reach 30°C. Palm trees sway alongside the Spanish colonial buildings in Old San Juan; the blue Atlantic stretches to the horizon. Yet the economic outlook for America's Caribbean dependency is anything but sunny. Its government owes $72 billion in debt, which it says it cannot repay. On December 1st the territory is supposed to make—and is almost certain to miss—a $354m debt payment. And that is just the first of a series of repayments⁴ that add up to $1.4 billion (or nearly 1.5% of GDP) due in December and January.

11月，美国大陆寒气袭人，加勒比地区的属地波多黎各却是30°C。那儿的圣胡安老城留有西班牙殖民时期的建筑，街道两旁的棕榈树来回摇摆。还有蔚蓝的大西洋，一眼望不到头。可它的经济前景并不明朗。政府欠债720亿美元，还还不了。12月1日应当还款3.54亿美元，这肯定是做不到的。12月和1月要还款14亿美元，而3.54亿美元的还款仅是第一步。

Politicians in Washington are scrambling⁵ for a solution. The island's fiscal⁶ woes⁷ are in part the result of chronically⁸ bad budgeting. But they also stem from structural⁹ economic weakness. Bailing out Puerto Rico, which is self-governing but not a state, is not a popular option. Yet when any corner of America faces a deterioration¹¹ in its long-run economic fortunes, the costs will end up being shared, one way or another.

此时，华盛顿的政要们正在寻找对策。波多黎各遭遇了财政灾难，既因为长期以来预算糟糕，又因为结构性经济疲软。这个岛屿虽然自治但未独立。经济援助并不欢迎，但美洲只要有国家经济面临下滑，人们就各种方法共同解决问题。

For decades Puerto Rico, which is poorer than the mainland, enjoyed a special tax status designed to encourage economic development. From 1976 the income of some manufacturers was exempt¹² from both federal and local tax. Investment poured in, notably¹³ in pharmaceuticals¹⁴. But in the 1990s the tax break fell victim to efforts to balance America's federal budget and was phased out. When it came to an end in 2006, the island sank into a deep and protracted¹⁵ depression. The economy has since shrunk by 14%. Employment is 12% below the peak of 2006. As the economy has withered¹⁶, obligations to creditors¹⁷ have loomed¹⁹ larger.

波多黎各比美国大陆穷。几十年来，为鼓励经济发展，税收状况特殊。1976年以来，某些制造业免除了联邦税和地方税。投资拥入，尤其是药业。1990年代，人们努力平衡美洲联邦财政，实行了减税政策，结果失败，并逐步停止。2006年废止时，经济已经陷入大萧条，旷日持久。自此，经济缩减14%，就业率12%，低于2006的最好时期。经济萎缩，债权人负担加重。

Many Puerto Ricans have not waited for a recovery. More than 200 move to the mainland every day. Roughly 5m Americans of Puerto Rican descent live in the continental United States; 3.5m remain on the island. Its labour force has shrunk 11% since 2009.

波多黎各很多人都等不起复苏。每天有200人流向美国大陆。将近有500万波多黎各血统的美国人住在美国大陆；350万人未走。2009年后，劳动力缩减11%。

This migration²⁰ to more prosperous places saps the Puerto Rican economy of potential, but it is precisely²¹ what economists²² think ought to happen when one region of a larger economy falls on hard times. At 5.7%, the unemployment rate in Detroit, a cash-strapped American city, is ten percentage points below the level of six years ago, when the car industry was in crisis. It would be much higher but for the shrinkage of Detroit's labour force, which has contracted by about 5% since 2009. Between 2000 and 2014 about 90,000 Detroiters, or 2% of the population, moved away. In much of America's industrial heartland, labour forces are shrinking. The migration of working-age adults away from struggling areas reduces joblessness. The country as a whole benefits as labour is drawn²³ toward places that are on the up.

人口流向更加富庶的地区，破坏了本地经济的潜力。这就是大经济体中小区域落难时的情况，跟经济学家想的一样。美国城市底特律缺乏资金，失业率为5.7%，比6年前低10个百分点。但假如劳动力不萎缩，失业率还会更高。2009年后，萎缩近5%。2000 至2014年间，底特律约有9万人（总人口的2%）出走。美洲很多工业中心城市，劳动力都在缩减。适龄工作人口离开艰苦的地区，减轻了失业状况。总体来看，波多黎各还是受益了，因为劳动力都流向了富庶的地区。

Migration reduces unemployment, but it cannot liberate²⁴ struggling spots from accrued²⁵ obligations—most notably pensions. Puerto Rico's biggest government-pension programme has sufficient funds to cover just 0.7% of future obligations. State pension pots are not in quite such bad shape, but massive liabilities still loom¹⁸. In Illinois, where the labour force has shrunk by about 3% since 2007, pensions are just 39% funded. Puerto Rico will not be the last local government to run out of money.

人口外流可以减少失业，但不能解放那些艰苦的地区，因为那里债台高筑，主要是养老金方面。波多黎各养老计划是最大的项目，有充足的资金，未来可以负担0.7%。波多黎各养老金体系并不差劲，但巨大的债务还是令人担忧。2007年后，伊利诺斯州劳动力缩减约3%，州出资的养老金只占39%。波多黎各不会成为把钱花光的最后一个地方政府。

Perhaps for that reason, many politicians are adamant²⁶ that the federal government should never rescue insolvent²⁷ localities. Detroit, for one, was left to write down its debts in bankruptcy²⁸ court. Puerto Rico cannot do that. The law bars states and territories from declaring bankruptcy, in order to deter¹⁰ profligate²⁹ behaviour.That makes little sense when redistribution among states is already enormous. Because America's tax system is progressive, rich states contribute much more per person to the Treasury³⁰ than poor ones. Alabama and West Virginia routinely receive more than $2 in federal spending for each dollar they pay in federal tax; New York and California receive less than $0.70 on the dollar. Most of the redistribution comes in the form of programmes like Social Security (the national pension scheme) and Medicare (public health insurance for the elderly), for which average spending per person is not that different from one state to another.

可能由于此，很多政要都坚定认为，联邦政府不能求助破产的地方政府。底特律就是例子，当时底特律在破产法院记录下了自己的债务。波多黎各不能这样，因为法律规定，州和属地不能宣布破产，就是为了避免挥霍。这就是说不通了，因为美国各州之间分配差异巨大。较富裕的州上缴国库，对个人的分配多于较贫穷的州。阿拉巴马州和西弗吉尼亚州，每上缴联邦税收1美元，就会收到联邦2美元多的返还。纽约和加利福尼亚返还却不足0.7美元。重新分配多是以社会保障（国家养老金计划）和医保制度（老年人医辽保险）的形式进行，为的是对个人花费州与州之间不能差异太大。

During the financial crisis these handouts³¹ to poorer regions became even more generous. The federal government stood behind all American banks and borrowed to finance infrastructure³² spending and increased unemployment benefits. It also took in less tax, offsetting³³ some of the pain of the recession. Indeed, America's fiscal union is so good at absorbing shocks that it is often cited as a model for the more accident-prone euro zone.

金融危机期间，贫困地区的援助更加大方。联邦政府支持所有的美国银行，让他们放款去资助基础设施建设，增加失业救济。同时，还减轻税务，减轻因衰退产生的悲痛。其实，美国的财政同盟十分擅长吸收冲击，都被事故多发的欧元区引为典范。

In sickness and in health

无论生病还是健康

The administration of Barack Obama has released a sensible plan to repair Puerto Rico's finances. It would allow indebted government agencies, such as the island's power company, to declare bankruptcy, and would provide for a restructuring of other debts and pension obligations. The federal government would also oversee³⁴ the territory's future public spending; as a sweetener, residents of the territory would gain full access to various anti-poverty schemes that are less generous there than on the mainland.

奥巴马执政后，实施了一项明智的举措，来修补波多黎各的财务。政府欠债的各种单位，比如能源公司可以允许破产；还可以重组其它债务和养老金债务；联邦政府将会负责本地区的公共开支。让地区居民尝到甜头的是，他们可以充分享受各种扶贫政策，当然钱比美国大陆的要少。

If Congress spurns³⁵ this plan, Puerto Rico's government will be forced to raise taxes to crippling levels and slash³⁶ spending to pay its bills. That would hit the island's residents, 40% of whom live below the poverty line, hard. It is difficult to imagine the federal government ignoring the humanitarian³⁷ crisis that would probably follow. In addition, emigration to the mainland would presumably jump, initiating³⁸ a vicious cycle whereby a shrinking tax base leads to rising taxes and curtailed³⁹ services, prompting further emigration. As American citizens, the migrants will be eligible⁴⁰ for public support of various kinds on the mainland. There is no question, in other words, that America will end up bearing much of the cost of Puerto Rico's past profligacy⁴¹. The only question is how considered and efficient its assistance will be.

假如国会通过此项决计，波多黎各政府将会被迫提高税收，减少支出，来偿还债务。这将会严重伤害岛内居民，其中40%生活在贫困线以下。这也很难想象，联邦政府会忽视随之而来的人道主义危机。此外，移居美国大陆的人可能会更多，进而开始恶性循环，因为税基萎缩，导致税收提高，服务缩减，又进一步激发人口出走。波移民也是美国居民，在美国大陆有资格申请各种公共支持。换言之，毫无疑问，波多黎各曾经肆意挥霍，最后需要美国共同承担。问题的核心是援助的效率和成熟度。

1 bailing   

（凿井时用吊桶）排水

参考例句：

• Both fountains were going furiously and both pumps bailing with might and main. 两个人的口水只管喷泉似地朝外涌，两个抽水机全力以赴往外抽水。
• The mechanical sand-bailing technology makes sand-washing operation more efficient. 介绍了机械捞砂的结构装置及工作原理，提出了现场操作注意事项。

2 descends   

v.下来( descend的第三人称单数 )；下去；下降；下斜

参考例句：

• This festival descends from a religious rite. 这个节日起源于宗教仪式。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The path descends steeply to the village. 小路陡直而下直到村子。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

4 repayments   

偿还，报答，偿付的钱物( repayment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The repayments of the loan are spread over 10 years. 贷款可在十年内分期偿还。
• The repayments of the loan are spread over 25 years. 这笔贷款分摊二十五年偿还。

5 scrambling   

v.快速爬行( scramble的现在分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Scrambling up her hair, she darted out of the house. 她匆忙扎起头发，冲出房去。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• She is scrambling eggs. 她正在炒蛋。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

8 chronically   

ad.长期地

参考例句：

• Similarly, any pigment nevus that is chronically irritated should be excised. 同样，凡是经常受慢性刺激的各种色素痣切勿予以切除。
• People chronically exposed to chlorine develop some degree of tolerance. 人长期接触氯气可以产生某种程度的耐受性。

9 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

10 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

11 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

12 exempt   

adj.免除的；v.使免除；n.免税者，被免除义务者

参考例句：

• These goods are exempt from customs duties.这些货物免征关税。
• He is exempt from punishment about this thing.关于此事对他已免于处分。

13 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

14 pharmaceuticals   

n.医药品；药物( pharmaceutical的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• the development of new pharmaceuticals 新药的开发
• The companies are pouring trillions of yen into biotechnology research,especially for pharmaceuticals and new seeds. 这些公司将大量资金投入生物工艺学研究，尤其是药品和新种子方面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 withered   

adj. 枯萎的，干瘪的，（人身体的部分器官）因病萎缩的或未发育良好的 动词wither的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• The grass had withered in the warm sun. 这些草在温暖的阳光下枯死了。
• The leaves of this tree have become dry and withered. 这棵树下的叶子干枯了。

17 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 loom   

n.织布机，织机；v.隐现，(危险、忧虑等)迫近

参考例句：

• The old woman was weaving on her loom.那位老太太正在织布机上织布。
• The shuttle flies back and forth on the loom.织布机上梭子来回飞动。

19 loomed   

v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的过去式和过去分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• A dark shape loomed up ahead of us. 一个黑糊糊的影子隐隐出现在我们的前面。
• The prospect of war loomed large in everyone's mind. 战事将起的庞大阴影占据每个人的心。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

21 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

22 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

24 liberate   

v.解放，使获得自由，释出，放出；vt.解放，使获自由

参考例句：

• They did their best to liberate slaves.他们尽最大能力去解放奴隶。
• This will liberate him from economic worry.这将消除他经济上的忧虑。

25 accrued   

adj.权责已发生的v.增加( accrue的过去式和过去分词 )；（通过自然增长）产生；获得；（使钱款、债务）积累

参考例句：

• The company had accrued debts of over 1000 yuan. 该公司已积欠了1000多万元的债务。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I have accrued a set of commemoration stamps. 我已收集一套纪念邮票。 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 adamant   

adj.坚硬的，固执的

参考例句：

• We are adamant on the building of a well-off society.在建设小康社会这一点上，我们是坚定不移的。
• Veronica was quite adamant that they should stay on.维罗妮卡坚信他们必须继续留下去。

27 insolvent   

adj.破产的，无偿还能力的

参考例句：

• They lost orders and were insolvent within weeks.他们失去了订货，几周后就无法偿还债务。
• The bank was declared insolvent.银行被宣布破产。

28 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

29 profligate   

adj.行为不检的；n.放荡的人，浪子，肆意挥霍者

参考例句：

• This young man had all the inclination to be a profligate of the first water.这个青年完全有可能成为十足的浪子。
• Similarly Americans have been profligate in the handling of mineral resources.同样的，美国在处理矿产资源方面亦多浪费。

30 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

31 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

32 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

33 offsetting   

n.偏置法v.抵消( offset的现在分词 )；补偿；（为了比较的目的而）把…并列（或并置）；为（管道等）装支管

参考例句：

• Dealers, having concluded a forward contract, should always hedge with an offsetting contract. 外汇经营商在签订了一项远期合同之后总是应进行套头交易签订一项相抵合同。 来自辞典例句
• Where does Germany think offsetting shifts into greater external deficits might occur? 在德国看来，这么大的外部赤字应该转移到哪里？ 来自互联网

34 oversee   

vt.监督，管理

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts.士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Use a surveyor or architect to oversee and inspect the different stages of the work.请一位房产检视员或建筑师来监督并检查不同阶段的工作。

35 spurns   

v.一脚踢开，拒绝接受( spurn的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• NIV A fool spurns his father's discipline, but whoever heeds correction shows prudence. 5[和合]愚妄人藐视父亲的5管教；领受6责备的，得着见识。 来自互联网

36 slash   

vi.大幅度削减；vt.猛砍，尖锐抨击，大幅减少；n.猛砍，斜线，长切口，衣衩

参考例句：

• The shop plans to slash fur prices after Spring Festival.该店计划在春节之后把皮货降价。
• Don't slash your horse in that cruel way.不要那样残忍地鞭打你的马。

37 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

38 initiating   

v.开始( initiate的现在分词 )；传授；发起；接纳新成员

参考例句：

• He is good at initiating projects but rarely follows through with anything. 他善于创建项目，但难得坚持完成。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Only the perchlorate shows marked sensitiveness and possibly initiating properties. 只有高氯酸盐表现有显著的感度和可能具有起爆性能。 来自辞典例句

39 curtailed   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。
• Their public health programme had to be severely curtailed. 他们的公共卫生计划不得不大大收缩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

40 eligible   

adj.有条件被选中的；(尤指婚姻等)合适(意)的

参考例句：

• He is an eligible young man.他是一个合格的年轻人。
• Helen married an eligible bachelor.海伦嫁给了一个中意的单身汉。

41 profligacy   

n.放荡，不检点，肆意挥霍

参考例句：

• Subsequently, this statement was quoted widely in the colony as an evidence of profligacy. 结果这句话成为肆意挥霍的一个例证在那块领地里传开了。 来自辞典例句
• Recession, they reason, must be a penance for past profligacy. 经济衰退，他们推断，肯定是对过去大肆挥霍的赎罪。 来自互联网