2015年经济学人 气候变化 高举环保大旗

 

Climate change

气候变化

Raise the green lanterns

高举环保大旗

China is using climate policy to push through domestic reforms

中国以环境政策推动国内改革

WHEN world leaders gathered in Paris to discuss cutting planet-heating emissions¹, a pall² of smog hung over Beijing. In parts of the capital levels of fine particulate³ matter reached 30 times the limit deemed safe. Though air pollution and climate change are different things, Chinese citydwellers think of them in the same, poisoned breath. The murky⁴ skies seemed irreconcilable⁵ with the bright intentions promised in France.

当各国领导人齐聚巴黎讨论有关减少温室气体排放的问题，北京被厚厚的雾霾笼罩。在首都的某些地方，大气细颗粒物的含量达到了最低安全指标的30倍。尽管空气污染和气候变化不是一件事，但生活在城市的中国居民认为他们都会在我们呼吸的过程中毒害我们的健康。灰蒙蒙的天空似乎和领导人在法国所承诺的美好意愿不太相符。

Yet a marked change has taken place in China's official thinking. Where once China viewed international climate talks as a conspiracy⁶ to constrain⁷ its economy, it now sees a global agreement as helpful to its own development.

然而中国官员的思维模式开始有了显著的变化。曾经中国认为国际气候谈判是一场阻碍其发展的鸿门宴，现在中国领导人将全球气候协议看成是有助其发展的一种推动。

China accounts for two-thirds of the world's increase in the carbon dioxide emitted since 2000. It has come a long way in recognising the problem. When China first joined international climate talks, the environment was just a minor⁹ branch of foreign policy. The ministry¹⁰ for environmental protection had no policymaking powers until 2008. Only in 2012 did public pressure force cities to publish air-pollution data.

自2000年以来，全球三分之二二氧化碳排放量的增长量都来自中国。而中国在很长一段时间后才开始正视这个问题。当中国第一次参加国际气候谈判时，环境问题仅仅只是其外交政策的一个小分支。环境保护部在2008年以前都没有制定政策的权利。而出于公众舆论的压力，各市政府在2012年才公布了空气污染数据。

Yet today China pledges to cap carbon emissions by 2030 (reversing its former position that, as a developing power, it should not be bound to an absolute reduction); and it says it will cut its carbon intensity¹¹ (that is, emissions per unit of GDP) by a fifth, as well as increase by the same amount the electricity generated from sources other than fossil fuels. The latest five-year plan, a blueprint¹² for the Communist Party's intentions that was unveiled last month, contains clear policy prescriptions¹³ for making economic development more environmentally friendly.

但是中国决定在2030年前控制碳排放（该决定与中国过往的立场完全不同，中国之前的立场是作为发展中国家的中国不应该被规定做出绝对数目的减排目标），宣布大幅减少碳浓度（即每单位GDP的排放量）达五分之一，同时中国将增加五分之一用除化石燃料以外的清洁能源来发电的电量。在上个月最新出炉的五年计划包含着共产党对中国未来的规划，其中明确包含促使经济更环保发展的政策。

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Right after the Paris summit, however it ends, China is expected to make more promises in a new document, co-written by international experts, that presents a far-reaching programme of how China should clean up its act. It is based on models that account for both economic and political viability¹⁴. On top of existing plans, such as launching a national emissions-trading scheme in 2017, the government may even outline proposals for a carbon tax, something that has eluded¹⁵ many prosperous countries in the West.

不管过程如何，各国在巴黎峰会上通过了一份由各国专家共同撰写的文件，其中要求中国在环境问题上给出更多的承诺，同时该文件中还有一个计划长远的项目用以指导中国该如何规范其行为。该文件是基于那些给出经济可行性和政治可行性的模型。在现存计划之外，如2017年开始运行的全国碳排放交易系统，中国政府甚至开始拟定征收碳排放税，而在许多发达的西方国家，这都是一件避而不谈的事。

The big question is why China is now so serious about climate change. The answer is not that Communist leaders are newly converted econuts. Rather, they want to use environmental concerns to rally domestic support for difficult reforms that would sustain growth in the coming decades. Since a global slowdown in 2008 it has become clear that to continue growing, China must move its economy away from construction and energy-intensive industry towards services. At the same time, China faces an energy crunch¹⁶. For instance, in recent years China has been a net importer of coal, which generates two-thirds of China's electricity. It all argues for growth plans that involve less carbon.

问题是中国为什么现在对气候变化如此重视？答案不是因为共产党领导人向环境保护论低头。相反，中国领导人希望用环境问题来召集国内支持，增援改革瓶颈，维持接下来几十年的经济增长。自2008年全球经济增长放缓以来，中国领导人开始明白，要实现经济的持续增长，中国经济需要摆脱建筑业密集型和能源密集型的特点，转向服务集中型经济。与此同时，中国面临能源枯竭问题。举个例子，近几年中国是煤炭净进口国，而煤炭发电量占中国总发电量的三分之二。这些都让低碳经济增长计划成为讨论热点。

This is where signing international accords, such as the one hoped for in Paris, come in, for they will help the government fight entrenched¹⁷ interests at home. Observers see a parallel with China's joining the World Trade Organisation¹⁸ in 2001. It allowed leaders to push through internal economic reform against fierce domestic opposition¹⁹. In the same way, a global climate treaty should help it take tough measures for restructuring the economy.

正如巴黎气候大会所预设达成的协议一样，签署这些国际协议能够让各国政府更有利地对抗国内根深蒂固的利益集团。有分析人士认为中国2001年加入世贸组织的行为也同样有着这一目的。此举让中国领导人能够在强烈的国内反对声音中继续推动内部经济改革。同样，全球性的气候条约能够使得一些重构经济的硬措施成为可能。

It will not be easy. Provincial²⁰ party bosses and state-owned enterprises hate to shut factories, particularly in those parts of the country, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in the north, where coal is a big employer. Cutting demand for energy is even harder. Even if the amount of electricity used by state industry falls, that used by private firms and households is bound to increase. What is more, environmental regulations and laws laid down by the centre are routinely flouted²¹.

但是这不会是件简单的事。各省级政府以及各个国企领导不希望关闭工厂，特别是像山西和内蒙古这些以煤矿业提供工作岗位的北方省份。降低能源需求就更苦难了。即使国有产业的用电量下降了，民用和私营企业的用电量一定都会上升。另外，由中央政府制定有关环境的法律法规常常遭到各地政府的无视。

But cleaning up China's act has, for the central government, become a political necessity too. Environmental issues have been major public concerns for over a decade, says Anthony Saich of Harvard University, which has conducted polls. True, rural people fret²² most (and with good reason) about water pollution. But those in the cities gripe about their toxic²³ air. Both represent a reproach to the government over its neglect of people's lives and health.

但对于中央政府来说，变更中国的行为模式也开始有了政治必要性。哈佛大学的安东尼·塞挈进行了一项投票调查，称环境问题在过去十年中变成了公众关心的一大问题。事情确实是这样的，比如农村居民最担心的是水污染问题（这个担心也是非常合理的）。但那些居住在城市的人抱怨空气中的毒害成分。这两种人都表达了对政府忽略人民生命健康的斥责。

That is why national economic goals, political goals, public opinion and international pressure all point towards trying to cut emissions, pollutants²⁴ included. In particular, says Zhang Zhongxiang of Tianjin University, now that dealing²⁵ with climate change is a pillar of China's diplomacy²⁶, the government must show it can keep its promises. It has some tools at its disposal. Across the country, the environmental record of government officials has become a crucial part of their evaluation²⁷ by the Communist Party; and cadres will be held accountable for their actions even after leaving their position. Several provinces have already punished officials for environmental accidents and for not enforcing environmental laws.

这也是为什么国家的经济目标、政治期望、民众意见以及国际压力都将矛头指向了减少某些污染物在内的排放量。就像天津大学的张忠祥所说的一样，现在气候变化问题成为中国外交的重点之一，政府必须要拿出遵守承诺的行动。中国有着其自身可用的方法处理环境问题。环境行政档案成为了共产党评定一个政府官员的重要依据，各级政府官员即使在离职后依然要对其在职时所作的决策负责。某些省份已经因为出现有关环境问题的事故或者没有依环境法行政等问题对一些官员进行了惩处。

Fifty shades of grey

五十度灰

But there are obstacles to real change. The electricity grid²⁸ and national power market are ill-equipped to increase renewable generation by much. Corruption²⁹ in industrial procurement³⁰ remains³¹ widespread, which does nothing to promote long-term efficiency or reductions in emissions. Competing incentives³² are also in play: earlier this year, the authorities forced a big Chinese investment company to buy back shares it had sold in old-fashioned industrial fields, for fear that it might depress share prices (which crashed anyway in a more general stockmarket meltdown). The government will not trust market mechanisms³³ alone, says Yang Fuqiang of the Natural Resources Defense³⁴ Council, an activist³⁵ group.

但想要真正做到改变，前面还有一些拦路虎。国家电网和国家能源市场对于新能源大量涌入没有足够的准备。行业采购中的腐败行为依然泛滥，这对于提高长期效率以及减少排放没有好处。竞争激励依然起作用：今年早些时候，一家大型中国投资公司在旧工业领域出售了许多股份，但有关部门因为担心抛售会使股份价格贬值（虽然其股价在股市暴跌情况下依然跌至低谷），于是强制要求其购回相应股份。维权团体自然资源保护委员会的杨富强称，政府不会把宝都压在市场机制上的。

Nor are leaders yet pushing for change on all fronts. For instance, government efforts to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide⁸ are greater than for many other greenhouse gases. Scarce and polluted water, one of China's most severe environmental challenges, is almost entirely³⁶ beyond the scope of the current raft of reforms. And China refuses to publish its estimate of the environmental toll³⁷ of economic growth.

但政府也没有在每个方面都推进改革。例如政府对于减少二氧化碳和氮氧化物所采取行动明显大于其他温室气体。稀缺且日益受到污染的水资源是中国最严重的环境威胁之一，但却几乎没有没能在这一轮改革的方案之中看到相关措施。而且中国政府拒绝透露经济增长所带来的环境破坏预估值。

Sceptics scoff³⁸ that China's promises in Paris are irrelevant³⁹ because emissions will probably peak regardless, long before the promised 2030. Nor has the government said how high that top might be. Yet the sceptics underestimate the importance of an international agreement for China and beyond. Like other countries, China has to date followed a pattern of “grow first, clean up later”. Yet very quickly it has recognised the dangers and drawbacks of such a policy and has been pouring money into clean energy and other innovations it hopes will provide green growth. In that, it may prove a model for other fast-developing countries. That might signal a small patch of blue sky.

持怀疑态度的人嘲弄称中国在巴黎气候大会上的承诺根本毫无意义，因为远在2030年前，全球温室气体排放量不论如何都会达到最大。尽管没有政府预计过这个最大的具体数值是多少，但这些人都低估了国际协议对于现在和以后的中国的重要性。和其他国家一样，中国曾经采用“先污染后治理”的模式。但是很快中国政府就意识到了其中的危害和缺点，并投入大量资金建设清洁能源和其他有助于绿色增长模式的研发。因此，中国或许能够成为其他高速发展国家的可模仿的例子。这可能标志着天空那一抹蔚蓝色出现。

1 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

2 pall   

v.覆盖，使平淡无味；n.柩衣，棺罩；棺材；帷幕

参考例句：

• Already the allure of meals in restaurants had begun to pall.饭店里的饭菜已经不像以前那样诱人。
• I find his books begin to pall on me after a while.我发觉他的书读过一阵子就开始对我失去吸引力。

3 particulate   

adj.微小的；n.微粒，粒子

参考例句：

• A special group was organized to dig up the particulate of the case.成立了一个专门小组来查明该案件的各个细节。
• Lungs retain relatively insoluble particulate material.肺脏内留有不溶解的颗粒物质。

4 murky   

adj.黑暗的，朦胧的；adv.阴暗地，混浊地；n.阴暗；昏暗

参考例句：

• She threw it into the river's murky depths.她把它扔进了混浊的河水深处。
• She had a decidedly murky past.她的历史背景令人捉摸不透。

5 irreconcilable   

adj.（指人）难和解的，势不两立的

参考例句：

• These practices are irreconcilable with the law of the Church.这种做法与教规是相悖的。
• These old concepts are irreconcilable with modern life.这些陈旧的观念与现代生活格格不入。

6 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

7 constrain   

vt.限制，约束；克制，抑制

参考例句：

• She tried to constrain herself from a cough in class.上课时她竭力忍住不咳嗽。
• The study will examine the factors which constrain local economic growth.这项研究将考查抑制当地经济发展的因素。

8 oxide   

n.氧化物

参考例句：

• Oxide is usually seen in our daily life.在我们的日常生活中氧化物很常见。
• How can you get rid of this oxide coating?你们该怎样除去这些氧化皮？

9 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

10 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

11 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

12 blueprint   

n.蓝图，设计图，计划；vt.制成蓝图，计划

参考例句：

• All the machine parts on a blueprint must answer each other.设计图上所有的机器部件都应互相配合。
• The documents contain a blueprint for a nuclear device.文件内附有一张核装置的设计蓝图。

13 prescriptions   

药( prescription的名词复数 )； 处方； 开处方； 计划

参考例句：

• The hospital of traditional Chinese medicine installed a computer to fill prescriptions. 中医医院装上了电子计算机来抓药。
• Her main job was filling the doctor's prescriptions. 她的主要工作就是给大夫开的药方配药。

14 viability   

n.存活(能力)

参考例句：

• What is required to achieve or maintain such viability? 要达到或维持这种生存能力需要什么？
• Scientists are experimenting to find ways to ensure the viability of seeds for even longer periods of time. 正如我们所说，科学家正在试验努力寻找让种子的生命力更加延长的方法。

15 eluded   

v.（尤指机敏地）避开( elude的过去式和过去分词 )；逃避；躲避；使达不到

参考例句：

• The sly fox nimbly eluded the dogs. 那只狡猾的狐狸灵活地躲避开那群狗。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The criminal eluded the police. 那个罪犯甩掉了警察的追捕。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

16 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

17 entrenched   

adj.确立的，不容易改的(风俗习惯)

参考例句：

• Television seems to be firmly entrenched as the number one medium for national advertising.电视看来要在全国广告媒介中牢固地占据头等位置。
• If the enemy dares to attack us in these entrenched positions,we will make short work of them.如果敌人胆敢进攻我们固守的阵地，我们就消灭他们。

18 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

19 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

20 provincial   

adj.省的，地方的；n．外省人，乡下人

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes.城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。
• Two leading cadres came down from the provincial capital yesterday.昨天从省里下来了两位领导干部。

21 flouted   

v.藐视，轻视( flout的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• North Vietnam flouted the accords from the day they were signed. 北越从签字那天起就无视协定的存在。 来自辞典例句
• They flouted all our offers of help and friendship. 他们对我们愿意提供的所有帮助和友谊表示藐视。 来自辞典例句

22 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

23 toxic   

adj.有毒的，因中毒引起的

参考例句：

• The factory had accidentally released a quantity of toxic waste into the sea.这家工厂意外泄漏大量有毒废物到海中。
• There is a risk that toxic chemicals might be blasted into the atmosphere.爆炸后有毒化学物质可能会进入大气层。

24 pollutants   

污染物质（尤指工业废物）( pollutant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pollutants are constantly being released into the atmosphere. 污染物质正在不断地被排放到大气中去。
• The 1987 Amendments limit 301(g) discharges to a few well-studied nonconventional pollutants. 1987年的修正案把第301条（g）的普通排放限制施加在一些认真研究过的几种非常规污染物上。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

25 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

26 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

27 evaluation   

n.估价，评价；赋值

参考例句：

• I attempted an honest evaluation of my own life.我试图如实地评价我自己的一生。
• The new scheme is still under evaluation.新方案还在评估阶段。

28 grid   

n.高压输电线路网；地图坐标方格；格栅

参考例句：

• In this application,the carrier is used to encapsulate the grid.在这种情况下，要用载体把格栅密封起来。
• Modern gauges consist of metal foil in the form of a grid.现代应变仪则由网格形式的金属片组成。

29 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

30 procurement   

n.采购；获得

参考例句：

• He is in charge of the procurement of materials.他负责物资的采购。
• More and more,human food procurement came to have a dominant effect on their evolution.人类获取食物愈来愈显著地影响到人类的进化。

31 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

32 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

33 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

35 activist   

n.活动分子，积极分子

参考例句：

• He's been a trade union activist for many years.多年来他一直是工会的积极分子。
• He is a social activist in our factory.他是我厂的社会活动积极分子。

36 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

37 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

38 scoff   

n.嘲笑，笑柄，愚弄；v.嘲笑，嘲弄，愚弄，狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• You are not supposed to scoff at religion.你不该嘲弄宗教。
• He was the scoff of the town.他成为全城的笑柄。

39 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。