2016年经济学人 德国能源转型 适时求变(上)

 

Europe Germany's energy transformation¹

欧洲 德国的能源转型

Energiewende

能源大变身

German plans to cut carbon emissions² with renewable energy are ambitious, but they are also risky³

德国计划通过可再生能源削减碳排放。雄伟的能源计划风险犹存。

“The quieter the evening, the more you hear it,” says Wilfried Bockholt, mayor of Niebull in North Friesland. He mimics⁴ the sound of a 55-metre-long rotor whirling round a windmill’s mast. He is a driving force behind the “citizens’ wind park”, but he has mixed feelings. A region famed for broad horizons is now jagged with white spires⁵. “They alter the landscape completely,” he laments⁶.

北弗里兰县的尼必尔市市长Wilfried Bockholt说，“夜愈是寂静，风车的声音就愈震耳。”他随即模仿了长达5米的风车翼片在桅杆上急速旋转的声音。Bockholt是“市民风电场”背后的推动力量，然而于此项目，他却是喜忧参半。曾以视野广阔盛名的尼必尔，现今却挤满了高低起伏的白风车。他抱怨道，“风车完全改变了这儿的地形。”

North Friesland’s wind boom is part of Germany’s Energiewende (energy transformation), a plan to shift from nuclear and fossil fuels to renewables. It was dreamed up in the 1980s, became policy in 2000 and sped up after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011. That led Angela Merkel, the chancellor⁷, to scrap⁸ her extension of nuclear power (rather than phasing it out by 2022, as previous governments had planned). She ordered the immediate⁹ closure of seven reactors¹⁰. Germany reaffirmed its clean-energy goals—greenhouse-gas emissions are to be cut from 1990 levels by 40% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050—but it must now meet those targets without nuclear power.

北弗里兰县蓬勃发展的风力是德国能源转型计划的一部分，该计划旨在将德国利用的能源从核能、矿物燃料转变为可再生能源。能源转型计划构想于上世纪80年代，于2000年出台相关政策，并在2011年3月福岛灾难发生后加快了政策进程。上届政府曾计划在2022年前彻底废除核能，而福岛事故促使现任总理安吉拉·默克尔改变对扩大发展核能的态度。她下令立即关闭7座核反应堆。德国重申了本国的清洁能源计划，即在2020年和2050年，温室气体排放量分别比1990年减少40%和80%，但如今德国需在不利用核能的情况下完成目标。

The rest of the world watches with wonder, annoyance—and anticipatory¹¹ Schadenfreude. Rather than stabilising Europe’s electricity, Germany plagues neighbours by dumping unpredictable surges of wind and solar power. To many theEnergiewende is a lunatic gamble with the country’s manufacturing prowess. But if it pays off Germany will have created yet another world-beating industry, say the gamblers. Alone among rich countries Germany has “the means and will to achieve a staggering transformation of the energy infrastructure”, says Mark Lewis, an analyst¹² at Deutsche Bank.

其他国家看德国的眼神里带有一丝惊奇，些许厌恶，幸灾乐祸。德国理应维护欧洲供电的稳定，现今却用廉价出售琢磨不定的风能、太阳能给邻国添堵。对多数人而言，能源转型计划就是用德国强大的制造业来进行一场疯狂的赌博。然而一旦有所回报，德国将创建另一个世界级行业，“赌徒们”如是说。在所有发达国家中，德国是唯一“有方法、有决心完成能源基础设施交错转型”的国家，德意志银行的分析师Mark Lewis说道。

Much could go wrong. Wholesale¹³ electricity prices will be 70% higher by 2025, predicts the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Germany must build or upgrade 8,300km (5,157 miles) of transmission lines (not including connections to offshore¹⁴ wind farms). Intermittent¹⁵ wind and sun power creates a need for backup generators¹⁶, while playing havoc¹⁷ with business models that justify¹⁸ investing in them. Hans-Peter Keitel, president of the Federation¹⁹ of German Industry, likens theEnergiewende to “open-heart surgery”.

仍有很多地方会出现差池。据卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院预测，截至2025年，发电成本将整体上涨70%。德国必须修建或升级8300千米（5157英里）的电力传输线，其中不包括将海上风电站连到电网的线路。风能、太阳能的间接性在搅乱专为其投资建立的商业模型的同时，也产生了对备用发电机组的需求。德国工业联合会主席Hans-Peter Keitel就将能源转型计划比作“开胸手术”

In May Mrs Merkel sacked the environment minister, Norbert Rottgen, after he led her Christian²⁰ Democrats²¹ to a disastrous²² defeat in a regional election. His successor is Peter Altmaier, a canny²³ parliamentarian who will share responsibility with the economy minister, Philipp Rosler. In fact Mrs Merkel has taken charge herself. She convenes²⁴ energy summits with leaders of the 16 states, and promises to incorporate grid²⁵ operators’ plans into federal law by the end of the year. But even she admits the Energiewende is a “Herculean task”.

今年五月，Norbert Rottgen代表基民盟竞选州长失败，默克尔随后解除了其环境部长职位，并任命精明谨慎的国会议员Peter Altmaier接任。Altmaier将同财政部长Philipp Rosler共担重任。事实上，默克尔早已亲自接管此事。她召集16个州的州长举行州长能源峰会，并向各州长保证，将会在今年年底前，把电网运营商的计划纳入联邦法律。但就连她自己也不得不承认能源转型计划是一项异常艰巨的任务。

1 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

2 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

3 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

4 mimics   

n.模仿名人言行的娱乐演员，滑稽剧演员( mimic的名词复数 )；善于模仿的人或物v.（尤指为了逗乐而）模仿( mimic的第三人称单数 )；酷似

参考例句：

• Methods:Models were generate by CT scan,Mimics software and Abaqus software. 方法：采用CT扫描，Mimics软件和Abaqus软件的CAD进行三维有限元模型的创建。 来自互联网
• Relaxing the mind and body mimics the effect that some blood-pressure pills would have. 放松身心会产生某些降压药才能产生的效果。 来自辞典例句

5 spires   

n.（教堂的） 塔尖，尖顶( spire的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Her masts leveled with the spires of churches. 船的桅杆和教堂的塔尖一样高。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• White church spires lift above green valleys. 教堂的白色尖顶耸立在绿色山谷中。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 laments   

n.悲恸，哀歌，挽歌( lament的名词复数 )v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In the poem he laments the destruction of the countryside. 在那首诗里他对乡村遭到的破坏流露出悲哀。
• In this book he laments the slight interest shown in his writings. 在该书中他慨叹人们对他的著作兴趣微弱。 来自辞典例句

7 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

8 scrap   

n.碎片；废料；v.废弃，报废

参考例句：

• A man comes round regularly collecting scrap.有个男人定时来收废品。
• Sell that car for scrap.把那辆汽车当残品卖了吧。

9 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

10 reactors   

起反应的人( reactor的名词复数 )； 反应装置； 原子炉； 核反应堆

参考例句：

• The TMI nuclear facility has two reactors. 三哩岛核设施有两个反应堆。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• The earliest production reactors necessarily used normal uranium as fuel. 最早为生产用的反应堆，必须使用普通铀作为燃料。

11 anticipatory   

adj.预想的，预期的

参考例句：

• An anticipatory story is a trap to the teller.对于讲故事的人而言，事先想好的故事是个框框。
• Data quality is a function of systematic usage,not anticipatory design.数据质量是系统使用的功能，不是可预料的设计。

12 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

13 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

14 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。

15 intermittent   

adj.间歇的，断断续续的

参考例句：

• Did you hear the intermittent sound outside?你听见外面时断时续的声音了吗？
• In the daytime intermittent rains freshened all the earth.白天里，时断时续地下着雨，使整个大地都生气勃勃了。

16 generators   

n.发电机，发生器( generator的名词复数 )；电力公司

参考例句：

• The factory's emergency generators were used during the power cut. 工厂应急发电机在停电期间用上了。
• Power can be fed from wind generators into the electricity grid system. 电力可以从风力发电机流入输电网。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

18 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

19 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

20 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

21 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

23 canny   

adj.谨慎的，节俭的

参考例句：

• He was far too canny to risk giving himself away.他非常谨慎，不会冒险暴露自己。
• But I'm trying to be a little canny about it.但是我想对此谨慎一些。

24 convenes   

召开( convene的第三人称单数 )； 召集； （为正式会议而）聚集； 集合

参考例句：

• The Premier convenes and presides over the executive meetings and plenary meetings of the State Council. 总理召集和主持国务院常务会议和国务院全体会议。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法
• Chinese woman tenth the National People Congress convenes grandly today in Beijing. 中国妇女第十次全国代表大会今天在北京隆重召开。

25 grid   

n.高压输电线路网；地图坐标方格；格栅

参考例句：

• In this application,the carrier is used to encapsulate the grid.在这种情况下，要用载体把格栅密封起来。
• Modern gauges consist of metal foil in the form of a grid.现代应变仪则由网格形式的金属片组成。