2020年经济学人 新冠病毒的宏观看法(2)

The outbreak began in December. The repeated mingling¹ of people and animals in China means that viral mutations that infect humans are likely to arise there; and mass migration² to cities means that they are likely to spread between people. This virus probably originated in bats and passed through mammals, such as palm civets or ferret badgers³, ending up in Wuhan’s wet market, where wild animals were on sale. Symptoms resemble ?u, but can include pneumonia⁴, which may be fatal. About 20% of reported cases are severe, and need hospital care; about 2% of them have been fatal. As yet, there is no vaccine⁵ or antiviral treatment.

疫情始于去年12月。人和动物的反复混合意味着可能会出现感染人类的病毒突变；大量的人口迁移到城市意味着他们很可能在人群中传播。这种病毒可能起源于蝙蝠，通过哺乳动物传播，如棕榈果子狸或雪貂獾，最后出现在武汉的野生动物市场。症状类似于流感，但可能包括能致死的肺炎。约20%的报告病例是严重的，需要住院治疗；其中约2%是致命的。到目前为止，还没有疫苗或抗病毒治疗。

The greatest uncertainty⁶ is how many cases have gone unrecorded. Primary health care is rudimentary in China and some of the ill either avoided or were turned away from busy hospitals. Many more may have such mild symptoms that they do not realise they have the disease. Modelling by academics in Hong Kong suggests that, as of January 25th, tens of thousands of people have already been infected and that the epidemic⁷ will peak in a few months’ time. If so, the virus is more widespread than thought, and hence will be harder to contain within China. But it will also prove less lethal⁸, because the number of deaths should be measured against a much larger base of infections. As with ?u, a lot of people could die nonetheless. In 2017-18 a bad ?u season saw symptoms in 45m Americans, and 61,000 deaths.

最大的不确定性是有多少病例没有被记录在案。初级卫生保健是最基本的，一些病人要么得以避免，要么无法被繁忙的医院接收。更多的人可能症状非常轻微，以至于他们没有意识到自己得了这种病。香港学者建立的模型显示，截至1月25日，已有数万人感染，疫情将在几个月内达到顶峰。如果是这样的话，这种病毒的传播范围比想象的要广，因此在中国将更难控制。但它也将被证明不那么致命，因为死亡人数应该与更大的感染基数进行比较。和流感一样，很多人还是会死。2017年至2018年，严重的流感季节导致4500万美国人出现症状，6.1万人死亡。

Scientists have started work on vaccines⁹ and on treatments to make infections less severe. These are six to 12 months away, so the world must fall back on public-health measures. In China that has led to the biggest quarantine in history, as Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province have been sealed o?. The impact of such draconian¹⁰ measures has rippled¹¹ throughout China. The spring holiday has been extended, keeping schools and businesses closed. The economy is running on the home-delivery of food and goods.

科学家已经开始研究疫苗和治疗方法，以降低感染的严重程度。但至少还需6到12个月的时间，所以世界必须依靠公共卫生措施。在中国，新冠病毒导致了历史上最大规模的隔离，武汉和湖北省其他地区已经被封锁。这些严厉措施的影响已波及整个中国。春节假期延长，学校停课、企业停工。而经济运行的基础是食品和商品的送货上门。

1 mingling   

adj.混合的

参考例句：

• There was a spring of bitterness mingling with that fountain of sweets. 在这个甜蜜的源泉中间，已经掺和进苦涩的山水了。
• The mingling of inconsequence belongs to us all. 这场矛盾混和物是我们大家所共有的。

2 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

3 badgers   

n.獾( badger的名词复数 )；獾皮；（大写）獾州人（美国威斯康星州人的别称）；毛鼻袋熊

参考例句：

• Badgers had undermined the foundations of the church. 獾在这座教堂的地基处打了洞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• And rams ' skins dyed red, and badgers' skins, and shittim wood. 5染红的公羊皮，海狗皮，皂荚木。 来自互联网

4 pneumonia   

n.肺炎

参考例句：

• Cage was struck with pneumonia in her youth.凯奇年轻时得过肺炎。
• Pneumonia carried him off last week.肺炎上星期夺去了他的生命。

5 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

6 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

7 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

8 lethal   

adj.致死的；毁灭性的

参考例句：

• A hammer can be a lethal weapon.铁锤可以是致命的武器。
• She took a lethal amount of poison and died.她服了致命剂量的毒药死了。

9 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

10 draconian   

adj.严苛的；苛刻的；严酷的；龙一样的

参考例句：

• You can't expect the people to obey such draconian regulations.你不能指望人民服从如此严苛的规定。
• The city needs a draconian way of dealing with robbers.这个城市需要一个严苛的办法来对付强盗。

11 rippled   

使泛起涟漪（ripple的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The lake rippled gently. 湖面轻轻地泛起涟漪。
• The wind rippled the surface of the cornfield. 微风吹过麦田，泛起一片麦浪。