2020年经济学人 美国经济强势回升(2)

The final reason behind the forecast revisions is probably America's flexible labour market. The fall in unemployment in recent months seems to reflect more new jobs, rather than discouraged workers exiting the workforce¹. In Europe governments have tended to assume much of the payroll² cost for furloughed workers. Such schemes are handy in a tight spot. But if prolonged, they could keep workers in jobs that are never coming back. America, by contrast, has mainly protected people's incomes with unemployment benefits (although it has absorbed the payroll costs of many small businesses via loans that may eventually be forgiven). As a result the reallocation of labour from dying industries to up-and-coming ones is happening at speed. For example, the number of travel agents has fallen by 10% since April, even as overall employment has risen. Employment in general-merchandise shops is 6% higher than before the pandemic.

预期提升的最后一大因素大概是美国灵活的劳动力市场。从近几个月失业率的下降来看，美国工人并没有沮丧地退出劳动力市场，而是获得了更多新的就业机会。欧洲国家更愿承担休假工人的大部分工资，该方案用在困境中很是顺手，但长期下去反而不利，它虽保住了工人的工资，却将工人困在了永远无法恢复的工作岗位上。相比之下，美国主要通过失业救济来保护人们的收入（尽管它通过最终可能会被免除的贷款吸收了许多小企业的工资成本。）其结果是，劳动力正迅速从垂死的行业被重新分配到新兴行业。比如，4月以来虽然整体就业率有所上升，但旅行社相关就业率下降了10%。，而百货店的就业率却比新冠爆发前增长了6%。

Much could still go wrong. The virus could surge again, as it has in Europe. Many forecasters continue to assume, optimistically, that Congress will pass another stimulus³ package this year. Americans cannot run down their savings⁴ forever. And socialdistancing requirements remain in place in much of the country. As a result some labour-market indicators⁵ still look dire⁶. In August, even as the overall unemployment rate fell, roughly 3.4m jobs were permanently⁷ culled⁸, more than in October 2008, soon after Lehman Brothers collapsed⁹. The rapid rebound¹⁰ this time could yet hit a hard ceiling. But Mr Christensen's optimism no longer looks so exceptional.

美国经济还有可能再出问题，新冠感染人数可能会像欧洲那样再次激增。不过许多预测者仍持乐观态度，认为国会今年将通过另一项经济刺激计划。美国人不可能一直吃老底儿。至今美国大部分地区仍要求保持安全距离，其结果是某些劳动力市场的糟糕指标不会有所改观。尽管8月份的总体失业率有所下降，但仍有约340万个工作岗位遭遇永久性裁员，该数字比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后不久的2008年10月的数字还要高。这次的快速反弹仍有可能触及硬顶，但至少克里斯坦森先生的乐观态度看上去不再那么突兀。

1 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

2 payroll   

n.工资表，在职人员名单，工薪总额

参考例句：

• His yearly payroll is $1.2 million.他的年薪是120万美元。
• I can't wait to get my payroll check.我真等不及拿到我的工资单了。

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

5 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

6 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

7 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

8 culled   

v.挑选，剔除( cull的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The herd must be culled. 必须有选择地杀掉部分牧畜。 来自辞典例句
• The facts were culled from various sources. 这些事实是从各方收集到的。 来自辞典例句

9 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

10 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。