The U.S. has a public strategy about Russia's plans to invade Ukraine

The U.S. has a public strategy about Russia's plans to invade Ukraine

Transcript¹

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, about the latest attempts by Western leaders to defuse the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

So diplomatic efforts continue to try and resolve this crisis in Europe. But here in the U.S., the Pentagon keeps sounding the alarm about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. For weeks now, the Biden administration has been revealing details of Russian troop movements, exposing what it said was Moscow's plan to create a fake video of an attack and warning that an invasion could kill thousands of people. Russia has accused the U.S. of conducting, quote, "megaphone diplomacy²." However, this morning, President Vladimir Putin's top adviser³ suggested that Putin should keep talking with the West.

John Herbst is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. He joins me now. Thank you for being here.

JOHN HERBST: Good morning.

MARTIN: We just heard from NPR's Joanna Kakissis that German Chancellor⁴ Olaf Scholz is in Kyiv today, Moscow later in the week. She nodded to some of the tension that could exist in a meeting with President Zelenskyy. What do you make of that meeting?

HERBST: Well, I think Ukraine is certainly unhappy with Germany's policy in recent months or, in fact, over the last couple of years, and perhaps especially since Scholz became the chancellor of Germany. It's been very weak in pushing back against Kremlin aggression⁵. And in fact, you know, Scholz even to this day has not said that if the Russians send those massed forces into Ukraine that Nord Stream 2 will stop. Biden said it. Scholz did not disagree, but he has not said it himself.

MARTIN: What do you think Germany, through Olaf Scholz in this moment, is likely to communicate, then, to Zelenskyy?

HERBST: Well, the good news is - I don't want to overstate it. The good news is that Germany understands that it has to present a stronger position more in line with what the United States has laid out and the other allies. So, you know, Scholz, starting with his visit to Washington last week, began to talk about, yes, how we have one approach, how Russia is the aggressor here and how there will be strong sanctions if, in fact, Moscow goes in. That is a good thing - a little bit late, a little bit not strong enough, but still moving in the right direction.

But again, Ukraine is unhappy not just with the German position on Nord Stream 2, but the fact that the Germans were holding up the transfer of arms from other NATO allies. So Germany has some steps to take, I think.

MARTIN: I want to ask what you make of the Biden administration's handling of all of this and the messaging in particular. I mean, Russia's U.N. ambassador says it's megaphone diplomacy. What that alludes⁶ to is the very public nature of the U.S. diplomacy on this and the messaging here. How unusual is that?

HERBST: The - what you're referring to as megaphone diplomacy is quite unusual. But I think it's actually a very clever tactic⁷ on the part of the White House. I mean, it's clear Moscow has been pursuing this provocation⁸ of massing forces on Ukraine's border. Well, they did it first last spring. And now they've done it again since October of last year. And Moscow wants to claim that it has no aggressive intent. But if you listen carefully to what commentators⁹ in Moscow are saying, what officials are saying, it is that, well, of course, they're not going to do anything. But if there's a provocation, if those crazy Ukrainians try to take back the territories in eastern Ukraine, which Moscow is currently occupying, then Moscow will respond. So the notion of a, quote-unquote, "Ukrainian provocation" is becoming the pretext¹⁰ for a launch of a major Russian offensive.

MARTIN: But just because the Biden administration, through the Pentagon or the CIA, would announce, hey, our intelligence says Russia is going to create this fake pretext for war, I mean, do you think that would really curtail¹¹, prevent Russia from just doing so?

HERBST: It makes the risk for Russia higher. It's not foolproof by any means, but then nothing is foolproof. But as a tactic, I think it makes sense. And, you know, it's clear the administration, as it picks up intelligence, has been putting it out there. So you know - so now we're hearing talk there may be something on the 16th...

MARTIN: Right.

HERBST: ...You know, two days from now. And I think this...

MARTIN: Very specific.

HERBST: Yes. This takes Putin off of his game. And he has to wonder, you know, what else might they know? So to me, this is clever.

MARTIN: Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has criticized the U.S. for this kind of very public diplomacy, saying that it's just caused panic, which in and of itself has been harmful to Ukraine, especially on the economic front, right?

HERBST: Well, there are at least two perspectives here. And I understand what Zelenskyy is complaining about. There's no doubt that as a result of these very public warnings, there is - there are economic problems. And the Ukrainian currency, the hryvnia, was under great pressure in recent weeks. And the government has probably spent hundreds of millions of dollars defending the hryvnia. So this is a tangible¹² hit the Ukrainians take.

At the same time, the loudness of the administration's statements on a possible Russian - or a likely Russian invasion of Ukraine is designed not just to throw Putin off his game, but also to help persuade reluctant allies and partners in Europe to take strong measures against Moscow if, in fact, the Russians do invade again.

MARTIN: National security adviser Jake Sullivan says the administration is trying to avoid war by releasing this information to the public. Do you think this narrows Putin's options, though, because the world is watching? Or could this strategy backfire and make it harder for him to back down?

HERBST: I don't see this as backfiring. I mean, it's possible that everything the administration is doing will not prove enough to stay Putin's hand. But I don't see this as a problem because despite what some people think, Putin has the ability to retreat on a dime¹³. He could turn around in a second. He controls the major media in Russia. He could explain this to his people. And the whole world will breathe a sigh of relief were that to happen.

MARTIN: Does he have a stake in just keeping the status quo? Does he win by just holding everyone's collective breath over what's going to happen?

HERBST: I think that's a very smart question. Putin, I believe, is truly concerned about what the West, led by the United States, will do if he marches those troops into Ukraine. There will be punishing sanctions. There will be more forces in NATO's east. But if he just keeps his troops there, or if he demobilize and then returns them to the border in six months, he's creating actual harm to the Ukrainian economy, and he pays no price.

MARTIN: John Herbst. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, now the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. We appreciate your time and perspective, Ambassador. Thank you.

HERBST: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF HANDBOOK'S "SWOON")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

3 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

4 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

5 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

6 alludes   

提及，暗指( allude的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In the vegetable kingdom Mr. Mivart only alludes to two cases. 在植物界中，密伐脱先生仅提出两点。
• Black-box testing alludes to test that are conducted at the software interface. 黑箱测试是指测试软件接口进行。

7 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

8 provocation   

n.激怒，刺激，挑拨，挑衅的事物，激怒的原因

参考例句：

• He's got a fiery temper and flares up at the slightest provocation.他是火爆性子，一点就着。
• They did not react to this provocation.他们对这一挑衅未作反应。

9 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 pretext   

n.借口，托词

参考例句：

• He used his headache as a pretext for not going to school.他借口头疼而不去上学。
• He didn't attend that meeting under the pretext of sickness.他以生病为借口，没参加那个会议。

11 curtail   

vt.截短，缩短；削减

参考例句：

• The government hopes to curtail public spending.政府希望缩减公共事业开支。
• The minister had to curtail his visit.部长不得不缩短访问日期。

12 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

13 dime   

n.（指美国、加拿大的钱币）一角

参考例句：

• A dime is a tenth of a dollar.一角银币是十分之一美元。
• The liberty torch is on the back of the dime.自由火炬在一角硬币的反面。