美国国家公共电台 NPR--乌克兰战争凸显了美国与中东的紧张关系

The war in Ukraine highlights strained relations between the U.S. and Middle East

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf² State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy firm, about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected³ U.S. relations in the Middle East.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is exposing cracks in U.S. relationships in the Middle East. For 50 years, Saudi Arabia has accepted only the dollar for global oil sales. That helps keep U.S. currency strong internationally. But the Saudis say they could accept the yuan for Chinese oil sales. To learn more, our colleague Steve Inskeep talked to Giorgio Cafiero. He's the CEO at Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy firm based here in Washington.

GIORGIO CAFIERO: I think there's good reason to think that this is more about signaling and messaging and that it's very possible that the Saudis are not seriously considering doing this. But this is about sort of gaining leverage⁴ and letting Washington know that Saudi Arabia has other options.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Well, the United States looks at Saudi Arabia, it seems to me, and we hear about the downsides from the U.S. point of view, that they're an absolute monarchy⁵, that they've notably⁶ killed journalists, that they have been a source of cheap oil and have helped stabilize⁷ the world oil markets, but they sometimes decline to intervene, as they seem to be doing now. What are the benefits to the United States of a continued, close relationship with the Saudis?

CAFIERO: Well, beyond oil, there's also other factors, too. The Biden administration is obviously pursuing efforts aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear accord that Trump⁸ unilaterally pulled the United States out of. We don't know if the talks in Vienna will result in the JCPOA being revived or not. But in any event, the United States is going to continue to see Iran and its regional activities as a big threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East. And the United States is going to continue to see Saudi Arabia and other GCC states as bulwarks⁹ against the expansion and consolidation¹⁰ of Iranian influence in the Arab world. And I think that's an important factor we have to keep in mind.

INSKEEP: Were you surprised that a good number of countries in that region have not been as supportive of the United States as the U.S. may have wanted? The UAE abstained¹¹ rather than voting with the United States at the United Nations. Israel, of course, has tried to take a kind of special position between the United States and Russia and has not joined the sanctions in the way that the U.S. might have liked. We could give other examples.

CAFIERO: I was actually not that surprised. And for a number of years, we have seen the UAE in particular align¹² more closely with the agendas of Russia and China at the expense of U.S. foreign policy interests. We saw this in Libya, Syria. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE value their partnerships¹³ with Russia. And in recent years, that's been increasingly so. When the dust eventually settles in Ukraine, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are going to want to continue working with Moscow. This cooperation takes place across many domains¹⁴, from energy, investments, defense¹⁵, and they're determined¹⁶ to make sure that they don't respond to the war in Ukraine in ways that seriously antagonize the Russian leadership.

INSKEEP: Could the Gulf countries significantly dampen the effect of Western sanctions since they're not participating and even want to deepen ties with Russia?

CAFIERO: The UAE and some other partners of the United States in the Middle East have not been joining this effort to squeeze the Russians. Since the sanctions began being implemented¹⁷, many Russian oligarchs and others who are close to Putin have been coming to Dubai to park their wealth. And yes, to answer your question, the UAE is an enabler of Russia and seems to be a country that is helping¹⁸ the Russians bypass these Western sanctions.

INSKEEP: Is there anything the United States can do to cajole, persuade or threaten the Gulf states to take a different approach?

CAFIERO: Certainly, there are things that the U.S. could do to that end. However, I think the U.S. very much values its partnerships with the Gulf, despite these sources of frustration¹⁹ and deep disappointment. The U.S. depends on these countries in many different ways, and I think the Biden administration is keen to avoid taking actions that would excessively antagonize them. After all, in 2020, the United Arab Emirates normalized diplomatic relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords. And after the UAE did that, three other Arab states followed suit. Abu Dhabi has a lot of leverage in Washington. The Emirati leadership knows this, and I think that's going to enable the UAE to get away with doing a number of things that don't sit well with Washington.

INSKEEP: Giorgio Cafiero is CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consultancy firm. Thanks so much.

CAFIERO: Pleasure's all mine. Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

3 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

4 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

5 monarchy   

n.君主，最高统治者；君主政体，君主国

参考例句：

• The monarchy in England plays an important role in British culture.英格兰的君主政体在英国文化中起重要作用。
• The power of the monarchy in Britain today is more symbolical than real.今日英国君主的权力多为象徵性的，无甚实际意义。

6 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

7 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

8 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

9 bulwarks   

n.堡垒( bulwark的名词复数 )；保障；支柱；舷墙

参考例句：

• The freedom of the press is one of the great bulwarks of liberty. 新闻自由是自由最大的保障之一。 来自辞典例句
• Surgery and X-irradiation nevertheless remain the bulwarks of cancer treatment throughout the world. 外科手术和X射线疗法依然是全世界治疗癌症的主要方法。 来自辞典例句

10 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

11 abstained   

v.戒（尤指酒），戒除( abstain的过去式和过去分词 )；弃权（不投票）

参考例句：

• Ten people voted in favour, five against and two abstained. 十人投票赞成，五人反对，两人弃权。
• They collectively abstained (from voting) in the elections for local councilors. 他们在地方议会议员选举中集体弃权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 align   

vt.使成一线，结盟，调节；vi.成一线，结盟

参考例句：

• Align the ruler and the middle of the paper.使尺子与纸张的中部成一条直线。
• There are signs that the prime minister is aligning himself with the liberals.有迹象表明首相正在与自由党人结盟。

13 partnerships   

n.伙伴关系( partnership的名词复数 )；合伙人身份；合作关系

参考例句：

• Partnerships suffer another major disadvantage: decision-making is shared. 合伙企业的另一主要缺点是决定要由大家来作。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• It involved selling off limited partnerships. 它涉及到售出有限的合伙权。 来自辞典例句

14 domains   

n.范围( domain的名词复数 )；领域；版图；地产

参考例句：

• The theory of thermodynamics links the macroscopic and submicroscopic domains. 热力学把宏观世界同亚微观世界联系起来。 来自辞典例句
• All three flow domains are indicated by shading. 所有三个流动区域都是用阴影部分表示的。 来自辞典例句

15 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

16 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

17 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

18 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

19 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。