美国国家公共电台 NPR--Public companies' earnings reports give us a glimpse of the state of the economy

Public companies' earnings¹ reports give us a glimpse of the state of the economy

Transcript²

s Wall Street worries about the effects of high inflation and a potential recession, company forecasts will give investors³ a better sense of where the U.S. economy may be heading.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Prices are rising at their fastest pace in more than four decades. Just in June, they surged up 9.1% from the year before.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

So how long could that trend continue? It can be worth listening to the companies that spend a lot of money trying to answer questions like that.

MARTIN: NPR's David Gura joins us now to talk about all this. Hey, David.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE⁴: Hey, Rachel.

MARTIN: Companies have started reporting earnings for the second quarter, the last three months. What are we learning from them?

GURA: When it comes to the economy, we spend a lot of time looking at information that is backwards-looking - jobs data, consumer prices. You know, commentary from CEOs and forecasts of future earnings can shape our understanding of what the economy may look like in the future. So while earnings reports and calls executives do with analysts⁵ may seem dry, not relevant to most people, they are worth paying attention to because companies have access to tons of data about themselves, their customers, talking about customer spending patterns, how they're feeling.

You know, companies have data about their inventories⁶, their supply chains, how higher interest rates will affect them in the coming months. And all this informs forecasts and shapes the guidance they give on how they think their company and the economy will do. And in this moment, amid all this economic uncertainty⁷, that is what's most important to investors like Liz Ann Sonders, who's the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

LIZ ANN SONDERS: It's very much the, you know, Wayne Gretzky - you got to look to where the puck is going, not where the puck is right now.

MARTIN: Oh, hockey.

GURA: A good one there from The Great One, Rachel. And picking up on that metaphor⁸, the Fed, investors, executives, the rest of us - everyone's trying to figure out where that puck is going, what inflation is doing and where the economy is headed.

MARTIN: All right. So can we get specific, though? I mean, I have to admit, it's a little harrowing to think about all the data that these companies do have on us. But what can we learn about inflation from companies' earnings?

GURA: Well, they've told us in past quarters how they've navigated⁹ really persistent¹⁰ problems with supply chains that have led to higher costs. And for a while, companies were able to pass that on to their customers. People were just simply willing to pay more, the reason being coming out of the darkest days of the pandemic, demand was so strong.

MARTIN: Right.

GURA: Steven Wieting says that's changing. He's the chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth.

STEVEN WIETING: We're getting into an environment now where consumers, of course - the big story - are facing inflation without income supports from the government.

GURA: Of course, those stimulus¹¹ checks are long gone. Prices have continued to climb. And, you know, from these earnings reports, we should get a better understanding of whether people are still willing or able to pay a premium¹² for cars and travel and hotels or if demand for all that has diminished. We'll see how companies are dealing¹³ with the Federal Reserve's response to high inflation. The era of easy money with very low interest rates is over. It's more expensive to borrow, to grow. And many companies, Rachel, are retrenching¹⁴ as a result.

MARTIN: So these earnings seasons - we talk about them in seasons - starts with the big banks, right? So what is Wall Street listening for specifically from financial firms?

GURA: Morgan Stanley reports today, along with JPMorgan Chase. Then we turn to Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs in the coming days. And these big banks are integral, not just to the U.S. economy, but the global economy. And they lend money to all kinds of companies, which gives them a really unique perspective on how the economy is functioning broadly - who's getting loans, who isn't, how tight credit is right now.

The last thing I'll say is when the CEOs of these big banks speak, people listen. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan caused a small tempest a few weeks back when he said there's an economic hurricane on the horizon. So during earnings season, there could be more pronouncements like that from these very powerful people, Rachel.

MARTIN: NPR's David Gura. Thank you so much, David.

GURA: Thank you.

1 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

7 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

8 metaphor   

n.隐喻，暗喻

参考例句：

• Using metaphor,we say that computers have senses and a memory.打个比方，我们可以说计算机有感觉和记忆力。
• In poetry the rose is often a metaphor for love.玫瑰在诗中通常作为爱的象征。

9 navigated   

v.给（船舶、飞机等）引航，导航( navigate的过去式和过去分词 )；（从海上、空中等）横越；横渡；飞跃

参考例句：

• He navigated the plane through the clouds. 他驾驶飞机穿越云层。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The ship was navigated by the North Star. 那只船靠北极星来导航。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

11 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

12 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

13 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

14 retrenching   

v.紧缩开支( retrench的现在分词 )；削减（费用）；节省

参考例句：