美国国家公共电台 NPR--How climate change is making storms such as Hurricane Ian stronger

How climate change is making storms such as Hurricane Ian stronger

Transcript¹

Hurricane Ian and Typhoon Noru strengthened quickly before landfall. NPR's Rachel Martin talks to Princeton University professor Gabriel Vecchi about climate-fueled intensification².

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Hurricane Ian trapped people with high water. It flooded a fire station and tore the roof off a hospital, and it knocked out power for millions of people. Before making landfall in Florida, one of the strongest storms ever to hit the U.S. had winds that rapidly strengthened to nearly 150 miles an hour. On the other side of the world, another storm, Typhoon Noru, went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in just 6 hours, before slamming into the Philippines. So how did Ian and Noru get so strong so fast? Gabriel Vecchi is a climate scientist at Princeton University, and he joins us this morning. Thanks so much for being here.

GABRIEL VECCHI: Thanks for having me.

MARTIN: Can we say definitively³ that this fast-changing intensity⁴ that we saw with these storms in particular, but others as well, is an effect of climate change?

VECCHI: I think for these specific storms and for any specific storm, we're not going to be able to say definitively that global warming was the main cause. In fact, it's just going to be one of the factors that change the odds⁵. But we are having growing confidence that global warming is changing the odds of hurricanes and typhoons undergoing rapid intensification, becoming monster storms overnight.

MARTIN: Can you explain those other factors? I mean, what is the science behind what makes these storms stronger?

VECCHI: Well, in order for a storm to get much stronger, you need to have fuel, and fuel comes in the form of warm ocean. But then you also need to have the weather and the winds in the atmosphere, the humidity, be in the right condition so that the storm itself can tap into that energy. So you need to have a combination of climate and other factors setting the table but also the weather playing along, unfortunately, to make these storms intensify⁶.

MARTIN: What do you, as a climate scientist, learn? What data do you glean⁷ every time we see one of these really intense storms?

VECCHI: Well, each one of these storms allows us to have another probe into what used to be a really rare type of event. This rapid intensification that we're seeing more and more often was rare, so we didn't have many real-life samples. So every single one of these events really adds to our ability to see these events undergo and gives us a better ability not only to understand the climate context but also to test our forecast models.

MARTIN: And what does all that mean? I mean, when you end up testing forecast models, do you then draw observations and conclusions that ultimately end up being prescriptions⁹ for how to manage, deal or even prevent the damage that can come from these storms?

VECCHI: Well, I think as a society, we need to incorporate not only history but also our understanding of how hurricanes are likely to change over the coming century, and decades even, in order to really build a resilient society. If we want to have a future in which we are thriving, we need to have an accurate view of the intensification of hurricanes that is going to happen over the coming decades and also the rising sea level and the fact that these storms are going to be wetter and need to incorporate this into the way that we decide to place our cities, our infrastructure¹⁰ and invest in our forecast and observation techniques so that we can provide society with the best information, not just from a decade-to-decade time scale but also as storms like this are going to be on the water.

MARTIN: Do I hear you saying there's nothing in terms of a policy prescription⁸ that's going to make these storms less strong over time? It's about prevention of damage. It's about creating resiliency in our infrastructure. That's what we can really manage.

VECCHI: I think in the short term, we've already baked in a certain amount of warming and so a certain amount of hurricane impact. In the longer term, reducing our greenhouse gas impact is going to help us live in a less hostile environment. So it's a combination of adapting to the climate changes that are going to occur, as well as trying to reduce the climate changes.

MARTIN: Professor Gabriel Vecchi of Princeton University, we appreciate your time and perspective this morning. Thank you so much.

VECCHI: Oh, you're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 intensification   

n.激烈化，增强明暗度；加厚

参考例句：

• The intensification of the immunological response represents the body's natural defense. 增强免疫反应代表身体的自然保卫。 来自辞典例句
• Agriculture in the developing nations is not irreversibly committed, to a particular pattern of intensification. 发展中国家的农业并没有完全为某种集约化形式所束缚。 来自辞典例句

3 definitively   

adv.决定性地，最后地

参考例句：

• None of the three super-states could be definitively conquered even by the other two in combination. 三个超级国家中的任何一国都不可能被任何两国的联盟所绝对打败。 来自英汉文学
• Therefore, nothing can ever be definitively proved with a photograph. 因此，没有什么可以明确了一张照片。 来自互联网

4 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

5 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

6 intensify   

vt.加强；变强；加剧

参考例句：

• We must intensify our educational work among our own troops.我们必须加强自己部队的教育工作。
• They were ordered to intensify their patrols to protect our air space.他们奉命加强巡逻，保卫我国的领空。

7 glean   

v.收集(消息、资料、情报等)

参考例句：

• The little information that we could glean about them was largely contradictory.我们能够收集到的有关它们的少量信息大部分是自相矛盾的。
• From what I was able to glean,it appears they don't intend to take any action yet.根据我所收集到的资料分析，他们看来还不打算采取任何行动。

8 prescription   

n.处方，开药；指示，规定

参考例句：

• The physician made a prescription against sea- sickness for him.医生给他开了个治晕船的药方。
• The drug is available on prescription only.这种药只能凭处方购买。

9 prescriptions   

药( prescription的名词复数 )； 处方； 开处方； 计划

参考例句：

• The hospital of traditional Chinese medicine installed a computer to fill prescriptions. 中医医院装上了电子计算机来抓药。
• Her main job was filling the doctor's prescriptions. 她的主要工作就是给大夫开的药方配药。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。