美国国家公共电台 NPR--What the debt ceiling standoff could mean for your retirement plans

What the debt ceiling standoff could mean for your retirement¹ plans

Transcript²

President Biden is expected to meet with congressional leaders on Tuesday about the debt ceiling, with just about two weeks until the country could run out of money to pay its bills.

Economists³ and administration officials have warned that a potential default on the national debt — for the first in U.S. history — would amount to financial disaster, wreaking⁴ havoc⁵ on the domestic economy and rattling⁶ global markets, too.

"Our economy would fall into a significant recession," Biden told reporters last week. "It would devastate⁷ retirement accounts, increase borrowing cost. According to Moody's, nearly 8 million Americans would lose their jobs. And our international reputation would be damaged in the extreme."

Biden expressed confidence over the weekend that leaders will strike a deal before June 1, and his administration has not yet specified⁸ what choices it would make if that doesn't happen.

A default would be felt first by Americans who receive payments either directly from the federal government or programs funded by it — like Social Security, military and veterans benefits, housing assistance and food stamps — says Samantha Sanders, the director of government affairs and advocacy at the Economic Policy Institute.

And, as she told NPR's Weekend Edition Sunday, the economic effects would ripple⁹ outward from there.

People in low- and medium-income ranges could struggle to pay their bills and cut back on spending. The Treasury¹⁰ could delay payments, rattling financial markets and wiping out household wealth. And people could see higher rates for things like mortgages and credit card interest.

"This is going to sound a little bit depressing, but honestly, there's very little an ordinary person can do to prepare for a financial crisis at that scale," Sanders said, adding that the most productive action people can take now is lobbying their members of Congress for a clean debt ceiling deal.

And what exactly does the debt ceiling have to do with retirement plans? Morning Edition's A Martínez asked Joel Dickson, the global head of advice methodology at the investment firm Vanguard.

Dickson says it's clear that there will be increased market volatility¹¹ as the threat of a default gets closer and if it comes to pass.

"But whether that volatility actually manifests itself in lower or higher returns at any given point in time is really not under an investor¹²'s control and it's really, really hard to predict," he says.

Some experts have tried to put a finer point on it. Center-left think tank Third Way said in a December report that a typical worker near retirement with 401(k) savings¹³ could lose $20,000 if the U.S. were to default on its debt.

Remember that retirement savings are about the long-term

Dickson, however, emphasizes that saving for retirement is a long game, and a temporary disruption is not likely to have a long-term effect on those savings.

And while the average investor can't necessarily dictate¹⁴ what will happen to the market or in the debt ceiling standoff, they can make sure they're not putting all their eggs in one basket.

"The best way for investors¹⁵ to achieve their own success is by focusing on the things that they can control: saving regularly, keeping costs and taxes from eating away at your nest egg and knowing what you need to meet your goal," Dickson says. "Sticking to that plan and controlling what you can is the best way for success."

If you'd been planning to retire sooner, like this year, Dickson says there are some other issues to consider. If there's a default and government payments do get delayed, that would affect the cash flow you're used to receiving — and, in a sense, the income that you're used to spending.

"And that's where we talk about the importance [of] preparing for the unexpected," Dickson says, referring to peoples' overall investing plans. "Think about things like having rainy day funds or backup plans."

The same idea applies to people who are already in retirement, he adds, since those accounts are by their very nature used to pay for daily expenses and annual living.

"But there may be different ways to think about withdrawing your account in inflationary periods or in times when markets are down," he adds. "That's having a well-diversified approach to spending, the timing¹⁶ of it and how you're saving for the longer term, and then drawing that down."

1 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 wreaking   

诉诸（武力），施行（暴力），发（脾气）( wreak的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Coal mining is a messy business, often wreaking terrible environmental damage nearby. 采矿是肮脏的行业，往往会严重破坏周边环境。
• The floods are wreaking havoc in low-lying areas. 洪水正在地势低洼地区肆虐。

5 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

6 rattling   

adj. 格格作响的, 活泼的, 很好的 adv. 极其, 很, 非常 动词rattle的现在分词

参考例句：

• This book is a rattling good read. 这是一本非常好的读物。
• At that same instant,a deafening explosion set the windows rattling. 正在这时，一声震耳欲聋的爆炸突然袭来，把窗玻璃震得当当地响。

7 devastate   

v.使荒芜，破坏，压倒

参考例句：

• A few days before,a fire had devastated large parts of Windsor Castle.几天前，温莎城堡的大部分被一场大火烧毁。
• Earthquakes can also cause tsunamis,which devastate coastal regions.地震还引发海啸，它直接破坏海岸地区。

8 specified   

adj.特定的

参考例句：

• The architect specified oak for the wood trim. 那位建筑师指定用橡木做木饰条。
• It is generated by some specified means. 这是由某些未加说明的方法产生的。

9 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

10 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

11 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

12 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

13 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

14 dictate   

v.口授；(使)听写；指令，指示，命令

参考例句：

• It took him a long time to dictate this letter.口述这封信花了他很长时间。
• What right have you to dictate to others?你有什么资格向别人发号施令？

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。