2019年CRI 美国经济学家称没有证据表明中国是"汇率操纵国"

James Nolt, a senior research fellow with the World Policy Institute for over 20 years, says that the U.S. labeling of China as a "currency manipulator" stands on no evidence, and that the devaluation of the Yuan is in-time reflection of market volatility¹ mostly triggered by U.S. zeal² for a trade war.

"I think that's a bogus charge. The irony³ there is the very fact that Trump⁴'s threatening of tariffs⁶ is what causes the Chinese currency to go down under market pressures; not that the (Chinese) government intends it to go down, in fact now they are intervening to try to prevent it from going down more; that the more Trump threatens China, the more he's going to get the result that he'll then use as evidence to threaten China even more, that is the more to drive down the currency, and then he'll use that effect of his own threats to justify⁷ further threats, so it's a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy."

He says China's Central Bank is just doing its job, which is to stabilize⁸ its currency.

"China's Central Bank does what most countries' central banks try to do, which is stabilize the currency. When the currency falls too much, they try to prevent it from falling, when it rises too much, they try to prevent it from rising, that's more or less what central banks all around the world do, because stabilizing⁹ currency is good for regular trade relations, for predictability of business, and things like that. China's never had a policy of trying to drive its currency to extreme, which is what is implied by the charge of currency manipulation."

Nolt says the real intention behind the U.S. designating China as a "currency manipulator" is to help justify its tariff⁵ policies against China, and also to enable the U.S. side to g?ain more ground during the trade talks.

"I think mainly Trump wants to have an excuse to put more tariffs on, he believes tariffs are beneficial, and so he is picking a fight in order to justify more tariffs. I think Trumps¹⁰ believes in tariffs as effective in their own way and is successfully and useful economic policies. I don't see him giving up the trade war, I don't see a solution to the trade war, I think the trade war is indeed, as he said, he believes, that a trade war is winnable, so he intends to pursue it to what he thinks is victory."

Nolt also says he appreciates China's restraint and rational responses to the U.S. pressure and constant provocations¹¹, and he warns that fanning the fire for a trade war will crash world economy.

For CRI, this is Chen shanming reporting from New York.

詹姆斯·诺尔特是世界政策研究所高级研究员，已在该研究所任职20多年来，他表示，美国将中国称为“汇率操纵国”并没有证据，人民币贬值是市场波动的实时反映，而市场波动主要是由美国对贸易战的热情所引发的。

“我认为这是虚假指控。具有讽刺意味的是，特朗普在关税方面的威胁是导致人民币在市场压力下下跌的原因；并不是说（中国）政府打算让人民币下跌，事实上现在他们正在进行干预，试图阻止人民市继续下跌；特朗普对中国进行的威胁越多，他就能得到越多的可以作为证据威胁中国的结果，也就是更多地压低汇率，然后他会利用这一威胁的影响为更多的威胁行为辩护，所以这是一种自我应验的预言能力。”

他表示，中国央行正在履行其职责，即稳定人民币汇率。

“中国的中央银行做了大多数国家央行试图做的事情，就是稳定货币。当货币贬值过多时，他们试图阻止货币贬值，当货币涨幅过大时，它们试图阻止其上涨，这或多或少是全世界央行所做的，因为稳定货币对固定的贸易关系、商业的可预测性以及类似的事情有利。中国从来没有试图将其货币推向极端的政策，而这正是货币操纵指控所暗示的。”

诺尔特表示，美国将中国指定为“汇率操纵国”，其背后的真正意图是帮助证明其对中国关税政策的正确性，并使美方在贸易谈判中获得更多优势。

“我认为特朗普想要提高关税的借口，他认为关税是有利的，因此他正在为争取更多的关税而采取斗争。所以，我认为，特朗普认为他们所采取的关税方式是有效的，是成功和有用的经济政策。我认为他不会放弃贸易战，也没有提出贸易战的解决方案，我认为，的确如他所说，他认为贸易战能够获胜，他打算继续追求他认为的胜利。”

诺尔特还表示，他赞赏中国对美国施加压力和不断挑衅行为的克制和理性反应，并警告说，为贸易战煽风点火将使世界经济崩溃。

CRI新闻，陈珊明（音译）纽约报道。

1 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

2 zeal   

n.热心，热情，热忱

参考例句：

• Revolutionary zeal caught them up,and they joined the army.革命热情激励他们，于是他们从军了。
• They worked with great zeal to finish the project.他们热情高涨地工作，以期完成这个项目。

3 irony   

n.反语，冷嘲；具有讽刺意味的事，嘲弄

参考例句：

• She said to him with slight irony.她略带嘲讽地对他说。
• In her voice we could sense a certain tinge of irony.从她的声音里我们可以感到某种讥讽的意味。

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

6 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

7 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

8 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

9 stabilizing   

n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The disulfide bridges might then be viewed primarily as stabilizing components. 二硫桥可以被看作是初级的稳定因素。 来自辞典例句
• These stabilizing design changes are usually not desirable for steady-state operation. 这些增加稳定性的设计改变通常不太符合稳态工作的要求。 来自辞典例句

10 trumps   

abbr.trumpets 喇叭；小号；喇叭形状的东西；喇叭筒v.（牌戏）出王牌赢（一牌或一墩）( trump的过去式 )；吹号公告，吹号庆祝；吹喇叭；捏造

参考例句：

• On the day of the match the team turned up trumps. 比赛那天该队出乎意料地获得胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Every time John is late getting home he trumps up some new excuse. 每次约翰晚回家都会编造个新借口。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 provocations   

n.挑衅( provocation的名词复数 )；激怒；刺激；愤怒的原因

参考例句：

• We cannot ignore such provocations. 对于这种挑衅，我们不能置之不理。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• They must immediately cease all their provocations. 他们必须停止一切挑衅。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》