华尔街的赚钱经 第7期:鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧(1)

 All-Suitable Investment Wisdom鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

即便是专家也对物价到底是涨还是跌的看法不一。

That leaves investors¹ in a quandary² how to construct a portfolio³ at a time of great uncertainty⁴? A wrong bet could be devastating⁵. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump⁶ if the country instead experiences a bout⁷ of inflation.

这就给投资者出了一个难题目在经济前景如此不明朗的情况下，该如何构建自己的投资组合呢?下错了注，受到的打击将是致命的。比如，你的组合是基于对通货紧缩的预期，那么假使发生了通货膨胀，你的资产便会大幅缩水。

鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧.pngThe answer is to prepare for the economic scenario⁸ you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

最佳方案就是，按你认为最有可能出现的经济状况来进行投资，同时采取一定的保险措施，以防止出现失误。

"If you want to win the war," says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant⁹ at Charles Schwab, "you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree."嘉信理财的金融咨询师里奇·罗索说，“要想赢得战争的胜利，作战双方你都得投点资。”

Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns.

采取这种投资方式的话，不管经济形势如何，你都会有部分资产受损。

Here are three portfolios¹⁰, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle¹¹ through without severe inflation or deflation.

下面的三种投资组合均考虑了内在的保险要素。第一种组合在通货膨胀时期表现最佳，遭遇通货紧缩时却也不致崩盘。第二种适于那些预期通货紧缩，同时也希望能够应对通货膨胀的投资者。第三种针对的则是那些认为经济发展温和，既不会有严重的通货膨胀也不会有严重通货紧缩的投资者。

Inflation通货膨胀型投资If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget¹² inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

如果你认为政府应对经济危机的——应开销最终会导致通货膨胀，那么你肯定希望自己的投资组合在物价上涨时能有良好表现。

Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper¹³ and pork bellies¹⁴ should gain. Plus, commodities-particularly gold-hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

商品期货可以是投资的重头，因为到时候原油、粮食、铜、猪肉的价格都会上涨。而且，大宗商品——尤其是黄金，可对冲美元贬值。有人预计，在美元疲软兼通胀的形势下，投资黄金可能会带来双倍的收益。

Insurance Component¹⁵; Long-term Treasury¹⁶ bonds and municipal bonds.

保险元素：长期国债和市政债券Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed¹⁷ payments would bean attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, would like paychecks shrink. And Treasury papers, in particular, would likely become a haven¹⁸ for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

这两种债券在通货紧缩时期价格都会攀升，因为在商品和服务大幅降价、薪酬缩水的情况下，这两种债券的长期固定收益会是一笔可观的收入。尤其是美国国债，到时会很受国外投资者的青睐，从而价格会受到进一步地推动。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 quandary   

n.困惑，进迟两难之境

参考例句：

• I was in a quandary about whether to go.我当时正犹豫到底去不去。
• I was put in a great quandary.我陷于进退两难的窘境。

3 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

6 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

7 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

8 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

9 consultant   

n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生

参考例句：

• He is a consultant on law affairs to the mayor.他是市长的一个法律顾问。
• Originally,Gar had agreed to come up as a consultant.原来，加尔只答应来充当我们的顾问。

10 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

11 muddle   

n.困惑，混浊状态；vt.使混乱，使糊涂，使惊呆；vi.胡乱应付，混乱

参考例句：

• Everything in the room was in a muddle.房间里每一件东西都是乱七八糟的。
• Don't work in a rush and get into a muddle.克服忙乱现象。

12 beget   

v.引起；产生

参考例句：

• Dragons beget dragons,phoenixes beget phoenixes.龙生龙，凤生凤。
• Economic tensions beget political ones.经济紧张导致政治紧张。

13 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

14 bellies   

n.肚子( belly的名词复数 )；腹部；（物体的）圆形或凸起部份；腹部…形的

参考例句：

• They crawled along on their bellies. 他们匍匐前进。
• starving children with huge distended bellies 鼓着浮肿肚子的挨饿儿童

15 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

16 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

17 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

18 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。