经济学人:欧元区经济:保持信心(1)

 Central banking¹ can be agonising. The effect of monetary² policy on the economy is not immediate³, 中央银行可能很痛苦。货币政策对经济的影响并非即刻见效，

so decisions must be based on expectations for two years' time. That means putting faith in forecasts that could well turn out to be wrong. 因此必须根据对未来两年的预期来做决策。这意味着要对那些可能是错误的预测有信心。

Some soul-searching might be expected at the monetary-policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on December 13th. 或许有望在12月13日的欧洲中央银行（ECB）货币政策会议上进行一些深刻反思。

Since 2015 it has stimulated⁴ the euro-zone economy by buying bonds worth 2.6trn euros ($3trn) under its quantitative-easing programme. 自2015年以来，该行通过其“量化宽松”计划购入了价值26000亿欧元（30000亿美元）的债券以刺激欧元区经济。

In June it said it planned to stop asset purchases by the end of the year (though it will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds), 6月该行表示计划于年底停止资产收购（虽然它会继续将到期债券的收益用于再投资），

and to keep interest rates at their current rock-bottom levels "through the summer" of 2019. 并且2019整个夏季的利率将维持在目前的最低水平。

Since then, though, economic growth has slowed and inflation, stripped of oil-price rises, has stayed resolutely⁵ low. 虽然自那时起，经济增长已经放缓，且通货膨胀（除石油价格在增长）已维持在绝对的低水平。

The question is how persistent⁶ these developments will be. 问题是这些进展将会维持多久呢。

After an impressive showing in 2017, the euro zone's economy has weakened. Temporary factors bear some of the blame. 自2017年的那一次惊艳表现后，欧元区经济疲软。临时因素要承担部分责任。

Poor weather, strikes and a bad flu season marred⁷ the start of the year. 年初就遭遇了恶劣的天气、罢工以及糟糕的流感季。

Then in the third quarter of 2018 output was 0.2% higher than in the second, the slowest growth since 2014. 然后2018年第三季度的产出比第二季度高0.2%，这是自2014年以来最为缓慢的增长。

New emissions⁸ tests in September meant carmakers put production on hold while they rushed to certify⁹ their stock of vehicles. 9月新的尾气测试意味着在汽车制造商们急着证明自己的车辆库存时，他们的生产将被搁置。

As a result, in the third quarter the German economy— the bloc¹⁰'s powerhouse—contracted for the first time in nearly four years. 因此，在第三季度，德国经济—欧元区的强国—近四年来首次萎缩。

In 2017 trade provided a welcome boost to the euro zone. 2017年贸易为欧元区提供了喜人的增长。

This year demand for exports has moderated, dampening growth, most notably¹¹ in Germany and Italy. 今年对出口商品的需求缓和，增长受到抑制，这在德国和意大利尤为显著。

Domestic demand has picked up some of the slack, particularly in France and Spain. But it has not fully¹² offset¹³ the effects of the trade slowdown on the bloc. 国内需求有所恢复，尤其是在法国和西班牙。但是这不足以抵消欧元区内贸易放缓的影响。

 

1 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

4 stimulated   

a.刺激的

参考例句：

• The exhibition has stimulated interest in her work. 展览增进了人们对她作品的兴趣。
• The award has stimulated her into working still harder. 奖金促使她更加努力地工作。

5 resolutely   

adj.坚决地，果断地

参考例句：

• He resolutely adhered to what he had said at the meeting. 他坚持他在会上所说的话。
• He grumbles at his lot instead of resolutely facing his difficulties. 他不是果敢地去面对困难，而是抱怨自己运气不佳。

6 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

7 marred   

adj. 被损毁, 污损的

参考例句：

• The game was marred by the behaviour of drunken fans. 喝醉了的球迷行为不轨，把比赛给搅了。
• Bad diction marred the effectiveness of his speech. 措词不当影响了他演说的效果。

8 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

9 certify   

vt.证明，证实；发证书(或执照)给

参考例句：

• I can certify to his good character.我可以证明他品德好。
• This swimming certificate is to certify that I can swim one hundred meters.这张游泳证是用以证明我可以游100米远。

10 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

11 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

12 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

13 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。