经济学人13:气象学家史蒂夫·施奈德

 　　Obituary;Steve Schneider;

　　讣闻;史蒂夫·施奈德;

　　Stephen Schneider, climate scientist, died on July 19th, aged¹ 65.

　　气象学家史蒂夫·施奈德，于2010年7月19日去世，享年65岁。

　　“Mark twain had it backwards,” Steve Schneider joked, in a lecture he gave to the American Association for the Advancement² of Science (AAAS) in 1972. “Nowadays, everyone is doing something about the weather, but nobody is talking about it.” The lecture was on the topic that Mr Schneider, then 27, had been working on for two years and would work on for another 38: what were humans doing to the climate?

　　1972年，史蒂夫施奈德在美国科学促进会（AAAS）演讲时开玩笑地说“马克吐温把话说反了！”“而今，每个人时时都影响着气候，但没有人时时都把气候挂在嘴边”发表此演讲时，施奈德先生仅27岁，已经工作了两年并将余下的38年为这一话题而探索：人类正对气候造成了什么影响？

　　The 1960s had brought a new way of talking about the weather—a way of representing it in punched cards that could be fed into a computer. These models, limited though they were, let their creators ask questions no simply tabulated³ data could answer, and see processes that the details of the real world obscured.

　　20世纪六十年代，一种新兴的研究气候的方式产生了：用一种可以插入计算机的穿孔卡片来演示气候变化。这些新的模型，尽管有其局限性，但是这使得模型设计者不仅可以提出总汇表中数据能回答的问题，而且可以通过模型看到现实世界中模糊细节的演变过程。

　　As a young physical scientist on the lookout⁴ for a new field that posed big questions, a former student politician who wanted to make a difference to the world and an inveterate⁵ show-off susceptible⁶ to the charms of a high profile, these models offered Mr Schneider what he needed. But in giving him a way to play with the world and its processes they gave him something he loved, too.

　　作为一位年轻物理学家，施奈德在其关注的新领域提出了重大问题。先前他的一位从政学生想改变这个世界和因高姿态影响带来的炫耀癖，这些原型提供给了施奈德先生所想要的研究方法。然而施奈德在得到地球研究方法的馈赠的同时，他也找到了自己所喜欢的（学术方向）。

　　As a boy growing up on Long Island he had greeted news of hurricanes by going up to the attic⁷ to sit with an anemometer, and built his own telescope in order to gasp⁸ at the planets it revealed. When computer models gave him the power to spin up winds on planets of the mind, his first big topic was a study of the net effects of smoggy pollutants⁹ in the atmosphere, which cool the planet down, and the carbon dioxide which warms it up. Other work focused on the warming and cooling effects of clouds and the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gases.

　　作为一位年轻物理学家，施奈德在其关注的新领域提出了重大问题。先前他的一位从政学生想改变这个世界和因高姿态影响带来的炫耀癖，这些原型提供给了施奈德先生所想要的研究方法。然而施奈德在得到地球研究方法的馈赠的同时，他也找到了自己所喜欢的（学术方向）。

　　Public interest in his work outstripped¹¹ its acceptance by the academic meteorologists Mr Schneider was working with at the beginning of his career. They found computer modelling of the climate suspicious enough in itself, and Mr Schneider's insistence¹² that it should lead to interdisciplinary interactions with biologists interested in ecosystems—and even social scientists interested in human responses—made things worse. When he returned to his office after the AAAS talk, he found a New York Times article that quoted his Twain gag pinned up on a noticeboard with “Bullshit” stamped across it. His subsequent appearances on “The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson” probably did little to improve his reputation with conservative colleagues. Nor did his fairly rapid dismissal of his early belief that cooling caused by pollution might outstrip¹⁰ warming due to carbon dioxide. In later years, when he and his colleagues had pushed climate change, and in particular greenhouse warming, on to the agenda, people keen to ensure a lack of action made much of his about-face over cooling, preferring to accuse him of modish¹³ inconsistency than to see him as someone who had worked to improve his models, and as a result had changed his mind.

　　公众对他的研究很感兴趣，但施奈德先生刚参加工作时曾同为同事的气象学家们却不大认同他的工作，因为这些气象学家认为计算机模拟气候本身就值得怀疑。施奈德先生还坚持认为这将和生物学家感兴趣的生态系统跨学科互动，其后果可能使生态系统变得更糟糕；同时产生跨学科互动还有社会学家所关心的人体反应。一在美国科学促进会演讲完后他就回到了办公室，他发现纽约时报的一篇文章中以公告栏的形式引用了他当年戏谑马克吐温的话，同时在文字上方印有“一派胡言”等字。接下来他在一个名为“今晚翰尼?卡森与你相约”的节目中亮相，可是在保守的同事面前他的个人名声状况基本上也没有多大改观。虽然有前期的挫折，但是这些并没有使他放弃先前的想法：即大气中污染物带来的冷却效应要超过二氧化碳带来的温室效应。在接下来的几年里，施奈德先生和他的同事将气候变化，尤其是温室效应，推上了大会议程。由于他在冷却效应上态度的急转，人们急于制定一系列的法令，结果很多人控告他的个人思想过于固执，结果导致大家并没有将其视为致力于改进模型的气象学家，最终这令他改变了自己的初衷。

　　Mr Schneider's high profile as a proponent¹⁴ of action on climate change—he was the editor of an important journal, Climatic Change, and an influential¹⁵ member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) more or less from its inception—would have made him a favourite target for such antagonists¹⁶ anyway, but he came in for particular scorn because of his willingness to discuss the inevitable¹⁷ tensions between advocacy and academic integrity. Critics of Mr Schneider, including this newspaper, portrayed¹⁸ him as giving in to this tension, and being willing to tell “necessary lies” when it suited his purposes. He countered such attacks vehemently¹⁹, saying such a conclusion rested on a slanted²⁰ reading of what he had said on the subject. He had no time for advocacy without truth.

　　施奈德曾是一本重要杂志“气候变化”的主编，同时自联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会成立以来，他就是该小组中具有影响力的一员。施奈德先生对造成气候变化的行为持赞成态度的高调姿态使他成为了收到攻击最多的对象。因为他意志坚强，所以面对这些极端的嘲弄，他迎难而上，探讨学术宣传和学术诚信不可避免的紧张关系。在一份报纸中这样描述对施奈德先生的批评：他会在紧张的情况下会做出让步，同时声称施奈德先生在达到自身目的的前提下愿意捏造“必要的谎言”。但施奈德先生对这种学术攻击进行了猛烈地抨击，声称这是由于其他人对他在此主题上的言论偏见理解造成的。一旦没有了真理，学术宣传就是在浪费时间。

　　Far from being a voice of orthodoxy, Mr Schneider encouraged debate, and doubts, on subjects that some of his colleagues thought beyond the pale. He convened²¹ meetings on the Gaia hypothesis and its notion of a self-regulating Earth; he provided space for discussions of geoengineering schemes for cooling the planet. When his friend Carl Sagan (who had recommended him to Johnny Carson) led the charge on the climatic effects of nuclear war as a case for disarmament, Mr Schneider, whose politics were close to Sagan's, damaged their friendship by saying publicly that the models he worked with were considerably²² less prone²³ than Sagan's to the creation of “nuclear winters”.

　　和先前大众普遍认同的观点相同，施奈德先生敢于在学术方面进行驳论、质疑，尽管有些领域他的同事们认为是越界。他召集会议讨论盖亚假说和盖亚假说中地球是具有自我调节整功能的论点。他为地球降温的抵制工程计划提供了提供了广阔的研究空间。施奈德先生的朋友卡尔?萨根(后将其称为约翰尼?卡森)是负责研究核裁军带来的气候效应，施奈德先生的政治观点与卡森的基本相同，但由于施奈德先生公开声称他所研究的模型比起卡森的研究更不容易造成“核战争”，这破坏了两人间的友谊。

　　At the IPCC, Mr Schneider's deepest commitment was to candour about uncertainties²⁴ and the role played by subjective²⁵ expert judgment²⁶. He loved models for the patterns and ideas they revealed much more than he trusted them as detailed²⁷ guides to action. He was more likely to criticise²⁸ a piece of science for underestimating its own level of uncertainty²⁹ than for coming to a conclusion he disagreed with.

　　在联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会中，施奈德先生的最大的特点就是直言那些不确定因素和专家的主观臆断所起的作用。他喜欢这种方式的模型，并且他认可这些模型，可以将它们作为自己详细的行为指南。比起那些他不赞成的观点，他认为低估了不确定性科学的观点更应该受到批评。点。

　　In his mid-50s he found his ideas about how to make weighty decisions in uncertainty tested in a more personal way. He was diagnosed with a rare lymphoma. With his wife as advocate and his doctor as expert, he tried to understand the processes involved and decide on actions accordingly. His choice of aggressive treatments helped him survive until a heart attack claimed him on an aircraft ferrying him from one climate meeting to the next.

　　在他50岁的时候，他发现可以利用不确定因素做出更具有个性化的重大抉择。但随后施奈德先生被诊断出患有罕见的淋巴癌。在妻子的支持和医生的建议下，他试着了解那些不确定性因素的过程并按其过程行事行事。他自己选择了大胆的治疗，结果活了下来，但在参加下一个会议的途中，他因心脏病飞机上逝世。

1 aged   

adj.年老的，陈年的

参考例句：

• He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了，也老点了。
• He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老，然而记忆力还好。

2 advancement   

n.前进，促进，提升

参考例句：

• His new contribution to the advancement of physiology was well appreciated.他对生理学发展的新贡献获得高度赞赏。
• The aim of a university should be the advancement of learning.大学的目标应是促进学术。

3 tabulated   

把（数字、事实）列成表( tabulate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Results for the test program haven't been tabulated. 试验的结果还没有制成表格。
• A large number of substances were investigated and the relevant properties tabulated. 已经研究了多种物质，并将有关性质列成了表。

4 lookout   

n.注意，前途，瞭望台

参考例句：

• You can see everything around from the lookout.从了望台上你可以看清周围的一切。
• It's a bad lookout for the company if interest rates don't come down.如果利率降不下来，公司的前景可就不妙了。

5 inveterate   

adj.积习已深的，根深蒂固的

参考例句：

• Hitler was not only an avid reader but also an inveterate underliner.希特勒不仅酷爱读书，还有写写划划的习惯。
• It is hard for an inveterate smoker to give up tobacco.要一位有多年烟瘾的烟民戒烟是困难的。

6 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。

7 attic   

n.顶楼，屋顶室

参考例句：

• Leakiness in the roof caused a damp attic.屋漏使顶楼潮湿。
• What's to be done with all this stuff in the attic?顶楼上的材料怎么处理？

8 gasp   

n.喘息，气喘；v.喘息；气吁吁他说

参考例句：

• She gave a gasp of surprise.她吃惊得大口喘气。
• The enemy are at their last gasp.敌人在做垂死的挣扎。

9 pollutants   

污染物质（尤指工业废物）( pollutant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pollutants are constantly being released into the atmosphere. 污染物质正在不断地被排放到大气中去。
• The 1987 Amendments limit 301(g) discharges to a few well-studied nonconventional pollutants. 1987年的修正案把第301条（g）的普通排放限制施加在一些认真研究过的几种非常规污染物上。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

10 outstrip   

v.超过，跑过

参考例句：

• He can outstrip his friend both in sports and in studies.他能在体育和学习方面胜过他的朋友。
• It is possible for us to outstrip the advanced countries in the world.我们能超过世界上先进的国家。

11 outstripped   

v.做得比…更好，（在赛跑等中）超过( outstrip的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• That manufacturer outstripped all his competitors in sales last year. 那个制造商家去年的销售量超过了所有竞争对手。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The imagination of her mother and herself had outstripped the truth. 母亲和她自己的想象力远远超过了事实。 来自辞典例句

12 insistence   

n.坚持；强调；坚决主张

参考例句：

• They were united in their insistence that she should go to college.他们一致坚持她应上大学。
• His insistence upon strict obedience is correct.他坚持绝对服从是对的。

13 modish   

adj.流行的，时髦的

参考例句：

• She is always crazy at modish things.她疯狂热爱流行物品。
• Rhoda's willowy figure,modish straw hat,and fuchsia gloves and shoes surprised Janice.罗达的苗条身材，时髦的草帽，紫红色的手套和鞋使杰妮丝有些惊讶。

14 proponent   

n.建议者；支持者；adj.建议的

参考例句：

• Stapp became a strong early proponent of automobile seat belts.斯塔普是力主在汽车上采用座椅安全带的早期倡导者。
• Halsey was identified as a leading proponent of the values of progressive education.哈尔西被认为是进步教育价值观的主要支持者。

15 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

16 antagonists   

对立[对抗] 者，对手，敌手( antagonist的名词复数 )； 对抗肌； 对抗药

参考例句：

• The cavalier defeated all the antagonists. 那位骑士打败了所有的敌手。
• The result was the entire reconstruction of the navies of both the antagonists. 双方的海军就从这场斗争里获得了根本的改造。

17 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

18 portrayed   

v.画像( portray的过去式和过去分词 )；描述；描绘；描画

参考例句：

• Throughout the trial, he portrayed himself as the victim. 在审讯过程中，他始终把自己说成是受害者。
• The author portrayed his father as a vicious drunkard. 作者把他父亲描绘成一个可恶的酒鬼。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

19 vehemently   

adv. 热烈地

参考例句：

• He argued with his wife so vehemently that he talked himself hoarse. 他和妻子争论得很激烈，以致讲话的声音都嘶哑了。
• Both women vehemently deny the charges against them. 两名妇女都激烈地否认了对她们的指控。

20 slanted   

有偏见的； 倾斜的

参考例句：

• The sun slanted through the window. 太阳斜照进窗户。
• She had slanted brown eyes. 她有一双棕色的丹凤眼。

21 convened   

召开( convene的过去式 )； 召集； （为正式会议而）聚集； 集合

参考例句：

• The chairman convened the committee to put the issue to a vote. 主席召集委员们开会对这个问题进行表决。
• The governor convened his troops to put down the revolt. 总督召集他的部队去镇压叛乱。

22 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

23 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

24 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

25 subjective   

a.主观(上)的，个人的

参考例句：

• The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
• A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。

26 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

27 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

28 criticise   

v.批评，评论；非难

参考例句：

• Right and left have much cause to criticise government.左翼和右翼有很多理由批评政府。
• It is not your place to criticise or suggest improvements!提出批评或给予改进建议并不是你的责任！

29 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。