经济学人56:扑朔迷离的未来

 　　Books and Arts; Book Review;Pakistan's future；Resilient mess；

　　文艺；书评；巴基斯坦未来；扑朔迷离的未来；

　　The Future of Pakistan. By Stephen Cohen and others.

　　《巴基斯坦的未来》，斯蒂芬·柯恩著。

　　It seems optimistic to write a book called “The Future of Pakistan”; it assumes the country has one. Tot up the assorted² threats and its survival may look dubious³: Islamists, separatists, potentially stray nuclear weapons, the war in Afghanistan, economic and natural disasters, a booming and restless young population, unfathomably venal⁴ leaders, rotting institutions and violent megacities. Any of these could yet spell the country's demise⁵ (see our special report this week).

　　作者似乎以乐观的态度写《巴基斯坦的未来》这本书；书中倒是希望巴基斯坦的未来会让人乐观。综合各种威胁，巴基斯坦的犹存似乎让人疑虑重重：伊斯兰教徒和独立主义者盛行，潜在的核武器事端，阿富汗战争，经济和自然灾难，迅速增加的颓废的年轻人，国家领导人卷入受贿深渊，机构腐败，大城市暴力事件不断。上面的任何一个事件可能招致这个国家的灭亡。

　　Individually, none of the 17 expert contributors to this frank and detailed⁶ volume is quite so apocalyptic⁷. But their collective mood is grim. In pondering scenarios⁸ for the coming years, these various specialists have produced a flood of gloomy details and prognoses.

　　不同的是，在这本平实而详细的书中，17位撰稿人没有任何一位作出预言般的警告。但是这些专家都感觉前景的黯淡。当思考未来愿景时，这些来自各个行业的专家都传达大量令人沮丧的事实和预测。

　　Stephen Cohen, a well-respected observer of Pakistani politics at the Brookings Institution, sets the tone by observing how Pakistanis lack even a shared idea of their nation. They are increasingly divided between the urban and rural, the educated and illiterate⁹, and by competing religious strands¹⁰. “The new normal is abnormal,” he observes.

　　巴基斯坦布鲁金斯研究所的备受尊崇的政治家斯蒂芬柯恩，通过观察巴基斯坦人如何缺少意见交流，以此定下本书基调。城市和乡村，高等学历者和文盲之间的分化日益严重，宗教团体竞争日益激烈。“正常之中有些反常” 斯蒂芬柯恩说。

　　The country is threatened by various long-term trends. Of Pakistan's 185m people, two-thirds are younger than 30 years old. Only the population of Yemen—hardly a model of stability—is more youthful. One poll taken among such youngsters and cited in the book suggests that three-quarters might emigrate if given the chance. Also many of the young hold extreme religious views, unleashed¹¹ by the zealous¹² regime of Zia ul Haq in the 1980s.

　　这个国家正收到各种长期流行趋势的威胁。巴基斯坦的18.5亿人口，2/3的人口都未满30岁。只有也门的人口，因其流动性小，人口年轻化更严重。通过对年轻人的民意调查，显示3/4的年轻人如果给予机会就会搬迁。本书也引用这次调查结果。也有很多热衷于穆罕默德·齐亚·哈克政权持的年轻人被释放，他们持有极端宗教主义观念。

　　Rapid urbanisation brings more problems. Over a third of Pakistanis now live in towns and cities, where tribal¹³ and rural rivalries¹⁴ are morphing into violent, urban warlordism. Town-dwelling Pakistanis are “historically more religious and conservative than rural populations,” writes Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council. They also have smaller families, and the youngsters are often left to fend¹⁵ for themselves. Thus it is in towns that both extremists and the armed forces increasingly find recruits, which bodes¹⁶ ill for preserving moderate views inside the army. Oddly, little space is given to the bloody¹⁷ turmoil¹⁸ in Karachi, perhaps the world's most violent metropolis¹⁹.

　　城市化的快速发展也带来不少问题。超过1/3的巴基斯坦人居住在城镇和城市中，部落和农村日益蜕变成暴力和城市的傀儡。来自大西洋理事会的舒贾·纳瓦兹说，居住在城镇的人“历史性的变得比农村人更虔诚更保守”。他们的家庭人员很少，最小的孩子不得不照料自己。在城镇中极端分子和武装力量成员日益壮大，军队的中立态度预示着好的征兆。奇怪的是，血腥的暴力事件频繁发生于卡拉奇，它恐怕是世界上最残忍的大都市。

　　The army's destructive habit of meddling²⁰ in Pakistani politics continues unabated. Roughly every decade this switches from explicit²¹ power grabs to unsubtle efforts to manipulate civilian²² leaders. For now Pakistan is in the latter phase. Though this book went to press before the most recent civilian-military clash, known as Memogate, the authors may well prove largely right in predicting lots of scheming but no new coup²³ for some years yet.

　　军队并没有改掉总是插手于巴基斯坦政治这个破坏性的恶习。似乎每个十年都发生从攫取政权到试图操控平民领导人的转变。现在巴基斯坦处于后者的掌控中。虽然此书在军民冲突（备忘录门）前已经出版，但其在预测大量阴谋方面的观点都正确，但是几年来没有产生新政权的更替。

　　Within the gloom there are glimmers²⁴ of hope. Most of the authors expect Pakistan to hobble forward more or less in its current state. The lives of some will improve. Literacy rates are rising fast (79% of men under 24 can now read, says the World Bank), families are shrinking (even in rural areas the norm is now to have four children, down from as many as ten two generations ago) and the press, generally, is more open than before. One sharp contributor, Aqil Shah, reckons that Pakistan will become “neither Sweden nor Somalia”, as the army's strong grip will prevent disintegration²⁵ but also block growth of strong civilian institutions. Even an optimist¹ would not describe Pakistan's glass as half full—keeping it unbroken may be the best one could hope for.

　　在阴霾之中还有一丝希望。面临这样的状况，大部分专家希望巴基斯坦人能或多或少在蹒跚中摸索前行。一些人的生活会得到改善。教育普及率迅速增加（据世界银行说24岁以下的人中79%的人能阅读 ），家庭人员减少（在农村普遍是四个孩子，比两代前的很多孩子相比下降）。Aqil Shah认为巴基斯坦不会步瑞士和索马里后尘，军队紧握政权使其免于风崩离新的可能，但也阻遏了平民机构的强劲增长。甚至乐观主义者也不会将巴基斯坦描绘为半满的玻璃杯——而保持这个玻璃杯的完整可能是人们最希望的。

1 optimist   

n.乐观的人，乐观主义者

参考例句：

• We are optimist and realist.我们是乐观主义者，又是现实主义者。
• Peter,ever the optimist,said things were bound to improve.一向乐观的皮特说，事情必定是会好转的。

2 assorted   

adj.各种各样的，各色俱备的

参考例句：

• There's a bag of assorted sweets on the table.桌子上有一袋什锦糖果。
• He has always assorted with men of his age.他总是与和他年令相仿的人交往。

3 dubious   

adj.怀疑的，无把握的；有问题的，靠不住的

参考例句：

• What he said yesterday was dubious.他昨天说的话很含糊。
• He uses some dubious shifts to get money.他用一些可疑的手段去赚钱。

4 venal   

adj.唯利是图的，贪脏枉法的

参考例句：

• Ian Trimmer is corrupt and thoroughly venal.伊恩·特里默贪污受贿，是个彻头彻尾的贪官。
• Venal judges are a disgrace to a country.贪污腐败的法官是国家的耻辱。

5 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

6 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

7 apocalyptic   

adj.预示灾祸的，启示的

参考例句：

• The air is chill and stagnant,the language apocalyptic.空气寒冷而污浊，语言则是《启示录》式的。
• Parts of the ocean there look just absolutely apocalyptic.海洋的很多区域看上去完全像是世界末日。

8 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

9 illiterate   

adj.文盲的；无知的；n.文盲

参考例句：

• There are still many illiterate people in our country.在我国还有许多文盲。
• I was an illiterate in the old society,but now I can read.我这个旧社会的文盲，今天也认字了。

10 strands   

n.（线、绳、金属线、毛发等的）股( strand的名词复数 )；缕；海洋、湖或河的)岸；（观点、计划、故事等的）部份v.使滞留，使搁浅( strand的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Twist a length of rope from strands of hemp. 用几股麻搓成了一段绳子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She laced strands into a braid. 她把几股线编织成一根穗带。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 zealous   

adj.狂热的，热心的

参考例句：

• She made zealous efforts to clean up the classroom.她非常热心地努力清扫教室。
• She is a zealous supporter of our cause.她是我们事业的热心支持者。

13 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。

14 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

15 fend   

v.照料（自己），（自己）谋生，挡开，避开

参考例句：

• I've had to fend for myself since I was 14.我从十四岁时起就不得不照料自己。
• He raised his arm up to fend branches from his eyes.他举手将树枝从他眼前挡开。

16 bodes   

v.预示，预告，预言( bode的第三人称单数 )；等待，停留( bide的过去分词 )；居住；（过去式用bided）等待

参考例句：

• This bodes ill for the failure of the programme. 这是那项计划有凶兆。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• This bodes him no good. 这对他是不祥之兆。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

17 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

18 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

19 metropolis   

n.首府；大城市

参考例句：

• Shanghai is a metropolis in China.上海是中国的大都市。
• He was dazzled by the gaiety and splendour of the metropolis.大都市的花花世界使他感到眼花缭乱。

20 meddling   

v.干涉，干预（他人事务）( meddle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He denounced all "meddling" attempts to promote a negotiation. 他斥责了一切“干预”促成谈判的企图。 来自辞典例句
• They liked this field because it was never visited by meddling strangers. 她们喜欢这块田野，因为好事的陌生人从来不到那里去。 来自辞典例句

21 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

22 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

23 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

24 glimmers   

n.微光，闪光( glimmer的名词复数 )v.发闪光，发微光( glimmer的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• A faint lamp glimmers at the end of the passage. 一盏昏暗的灯在走廊尽头发出微弱的光线。 来自互联网
• The first glimmers of an export-led revival are apparent. 拉动出库复苏的第一缕曙光正出现。 来自互联网

25 disintegration   

n.分散，解体

参考例句：

• This defeat led to the disintegration of the empire.这次战败道致了帝国的瓦解。
• The incident has hastened the disintegration of the club.这一事件加速了该俱乐部的解体。