经济学人301:房产问题 为何怨声载道?

 　　China

　　亚洲中国

　　Housing

　　房产

　　Why grumble¹?

　　为何怨声载道？

　　silver lining² to the housing cloud

　　房产疑云的一线希望

　　JUST how bad is China's housing bubble? One important measure—the most important for those trying to get a foot on the property ladder—is affordability³. Many believe that Chinese housing prices have soared well beyond the reach of ordinary people. There is some truth to that. But a closer look at the data reveals a more complex picture. The Economist⁴ Intelligence Unit, our sister company, created a city-level index to track the relation between housing prices and incomes across China. Two points stand out.

　　中国房地产泡沫有多严重？要衡量这个问题，经济可承受性是一重要指标，它是人们试图在购买住宅的重中之重。许多人相信，中国的房屋价格飙升到了一个常人难以企及的地步。这大约是正确的。不过对数据的进一步观察揭示了一个更为复杂的局面。我们的兄弟公司，经济学人智库开发了一个基于城市层面的指数，它可以追踪中国房价与收入的关系。有两点十分引人注目。

　　房价问题.jpg

　　First, the country's biggest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations of more than 10m, are in a class of their own in terms of unaffordability (see chart; for full results go to our website). Homes are markedly cheaper in almost all slightly smaller cities, even though they have millions of residents. The price of a 100-square-metre house is on average 14-fold higher than annual household incomes in mega-cities. For cities with populations of less than 10m, the price to income ratio is eight. It thus makes sense for China's cities to tailor their housing policies to their own needs; some must focus on building more subsidised homes, while others need to attract new residents to occupy their many homes now standing⁵ empty.

　　首先，中国诸如北京、上海此类的大城市拥有超过1千万的人口，他们处于无法负担房价的那个层次（如表所示；去我们的网站可以看到完整版）。几乎所有的较小城市中，即使拥有几百万人口，房价也要明显地便宜。在大城市里，一处100平方米的住宅价格平均超过了家庭年收入的14倍。那些人口少于1000万的城市，房价与收入的比率是8。因此，中国的城市为了迎合他们自身的需求而调整房屋政策是一件有意义的事情；一些城市必须注重经济适用房的建设，同时其他城市需要吸引新居民去消费大量空房。

　　Second, regardless of city size, housing has become more affordable⁶ over the past four years throughout China. At the peak, in April 2010, house prices on average were nearly 12 times household incomes; that has dropped to less than nine times today. Prices are higher than in many developing countries, but they are not wildly divergent.

　　第二，不考虑城市的规模的情况下，纵观全国，过去四年中人们更加能负担得起住宅费用。2010年4月达到最顶峰，此时住宅售价是家庭年收入近12倍；这个比率已经降到如今的不足9倍。发展中国家的房价比较高，但是中国的房价比之其他发展中国家也高不了多少。

　　The apparent improvement in affordability does not tally⁷ with the perception of many Chinese. But the official price data used in constructing this index show that people are adjusting to high inner-city prices by buying homes that are ever farther from urban centres. That may not be especially painful: suburbs are increasingly well-connected by roads and railways.

　　经济可承受性的明显改善与中国人的感知并不完全相符。但是，我们的指标用上了官方的数据，这些数据显示人们通过购买远离市中心的住房来适应高昂的中心城区房价。这也许不会特别痛苦，因为市郊正越来越多地与大路和铁路紧密相连。

　　The bigger concern, especially in smaller cities, is that China suffers from an oversupply⁸ of housing. So many homes have been built that prices in such cities are now declining quickly relative to incomes. That is desirable. But a big, sudden rise in affordability could pose considerable risks to the financial system, which is heavily exposed to loans made to the property sector⁹. So far, at least, China has yet to experience the pain of a property-market crash.

　　另外有一个大问题，中国面临着住宅供大于求的糟糕局面，特别是在较小的城市中。这么多的住房竣工落成，而这些城市里的房价正相对于收入迅速下跌。这本让人高兴不已。但是经济可承受性短时间内大幅度的升高会对金融系统造成相当大的风险，特别是那些投放在房地产市场的贷款。到目前为止，至少还没有历经房地产崩溃的痛苦。

　　1.look at 评判；审视；接受

　　例句:Mari tilted¹⁰ her head back so that she could look at him.

　　玛丽把头向后仰，以便能看到他。

　　2.go to 转到，定位

　　例句:We'll go to a meeting in Birmingham and come straight back.

　　我们将去伯明翰参加会议，然后马上回来。

　　3.even though 即使，纵然；即若

　　例句:I still love you even though I'd like to wring¹¹ your neck.

　　虽然我想掐死你，但我还是爱你的。

　　4.focus on 致力于；使聚焦于

　　例句:Their talks are expected to focus on arms control.

　　他们的会谈预计会集中讨论军备控制问题。

1 grumble   

vi.抱怨；咕哝；n.抱怨，牢骚；咕哝，隆隆声

参考例句：

• I don't want to hear another grumble from you.我不愿再听到你的抱怨。
• He could do nothing but grumble over the situation.他除了埋怨局势之外别无他法。

2 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

3 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

6 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

7 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。

8 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

9 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

10 tilted   

v. 倾斜的

参考例句：

• Suddenly the boat tilted to one side. 小船突然倾向一侧。
• She tilted her chin at him defiantly. 她向他翘起下巴表示挑衅。

11 wring   

n.扭绞；v.拧，绞出，扭

参考例句：

• My socks were so wet that I had to wring them.我的袜子很湿，我不得不拧干它们。
• I'll wring your neck if you don't behave!你要是不规矩，我就拧断你的脖子。