密歇根新闻广播 特朗普票选榜首对密歇根民主党有好处吗?

Donald Trump¹ is now the presumptive GOP presidential nominee² so, what does that portend³ for Republicans further down the ballot⁴?

For Donald Trump to win the presidency⁵, he'll have to change the Electoral College map to win states Republicans don't usually win. And, based on Trump's apparent appeal to blue collar voters in old Rust⁶ Belt states, Michigan is high on that list.

Michigan Republican Congresswoman Candice Miller⁷ endorsed⁸ Trump last week.

"In this case, with Donald Trump, I think Michigan is very much in play. I think the entire electoral map is going to be changing as evidenced by the recent poll that showed that he was neck and neck in three critical states, uh, literally⁹, a dead-heat in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and if that is happening in Pennsylvania, I believe it is going to be happening in Michigan, as well. And, certainly in Macomb County, home of the Reagan Democrats¹⁰," Miller said last week.

But, at the same time, Democrats are hoping a lightning rod candidate like Trump will hand them opportunities.

In Michigan, we're specifically talking about some congressional seats and control of the state House of Representatives.

That's a big deal when you consider it's been six years since Democrats controlled the state House. Control would put Dems at the table for the final two years of Governor Rick Snyder's administration and it would break the complete GOP hegemony in Lansing.

So, the question is: what is the net effect of Donald Trump at the top of the ballot? The definitive¹¹ answer is: we don't know.

This election year has been a wild, unpredictable ride and there's no reason to believe that's going to change. But, that won't keep us from sorting through the possibilities.

First off, Bernie Sanders won the Michigan Democratic primary, at least partially¹², because of opposition¹³ to free trade deals that he says have outsourced U.S. jobs overseas. Well, Donald Trump won Michigan's Republican primary also slamming trade deals. Might there be some crossover appeal?

Meantime, this election, of course, won't be decided¹⁴ just by who turns out, but by who doesn't. And that means something in 2016 when both top candidates—Trump and Clinton—have high negative ratings in most polls.

Trump's got the bigger problem in the aggregate¹⁵, but Republicans say in most of the state House and congressional districts they're competing in, Clinton's got the higher negatives. Democrats say they expect the Trump effect will mostly turn in their favor. 

So will voter distrust of either or both candidates suppress turnout? And, if so, which side loses more?

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

3 portend   

v.预兆，预示；给…以警告

参考例句：

• Black clouds portend a storm.乌云为暴风雨的前兆。
• What do these strange events portend?这些奇怪的事件预示着什么？

4 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

5 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

6 rust   

n.锈；v.生锈；(脑子)衰退

参考例句：

• She scraped the rust off the kitchen knife.她擦掉了菜刀上的锈。
• The rain will rust the iron roof.雨水会使铁皮屋顶生锈。

7 miller   

n.磨坊主

参考例句：

• Every miller draws water to his own mill.磨坊主都往自己磨里注水。
• The skilful miller killed millions of lions with his ski.技术娴熟的磨坊主用雪橇杀死了上百万头狮子。

8 endorsed   

vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品

参考例句：

• The committee endorsed an initiative by the chairman to enter discussion about a possible merger. 委员会通过了主席提出的新方案，开始就可能进行的并购进行讨论。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The government has broadly endorsed a research paper proposing new educational targets for 14-year-olds. 政府基本上支持建议对14 岁少年实行新教育目标的研究报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

10 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

12 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

15 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。