美国国家公共电台 NPR Will Iran Deal Meet The Same Fate As A Past U.S.-North Korean Arms Deal?

Will Iran Deal Meet The Same Fate As A Past U.S.-North Korean Arms Deal?

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Now, one of the promises Donald Trump² made on the campaign trail is that he would dismantle³ or renegotiate the deal with Iran that limits its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. This wouldn't be the first time a Republican administration walked away from an arms deal negotiated by Democrats⁴. NPR's Michele Kelemen takes a look at the last time this happened over North Korea.

MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE⁵: In 1994, the Clinton administration struck a deal with North Korea that would essentially⁶ freeze the North Korean nuclear program in exchange for aid. The so-called Agreed Framework was highly controversial in Congress. It eventually collapsed⁷ in 2002 when the Bush administration confronted North Korea with evidence that Pyongyang was cheating. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security is predicting something similar when a Trump administration gets into office and decides how to proceed with Iran.

DAVID ALBRIGHT: I think they will probably throw the deal aside. I witnessed how the Bush administration killed the Agreed Framework, which was a deal we were supporting pretty heavily in the 1990s despite some misgivings⁸. They'll set it up so Iran will leave the deal.

KELEMEN: Albright says a lot depends on Trump's still unnamed foreign policy team. In the North Korean example, the then secretary of state pursued a different approach from the hardliners.

ALBRIGHT: In the Bush administration, Colin Powell put the brakes on a quick dropping of the Agreed Framework. And then once it was dropped, he also started a process to try to create a negotiating process to kind of get back to a better outcome.

KELEMEN: Neither the Bush administration, nor the Obama administration ever got to a better outcome with North Korea though. And that worries other experts including Melissa Hanham, who's with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California.

MELISSA HANHAM: And today we're looking at a country that's had five nuclear weapons tests and the worst relationship between the U.S. and North Korea since, you know, the start of the Korean War.

KELEMEN: She's hoping that President-elect Trump will bring in advisers⁹ who will think twice before scrapping¹⁰ the Iran nuclear deal, which at least buys the U.S. some time.

HANHAM: It is much more difficult to take nuclear weapons away from a country once they already have them. And with North Korea, while there is a spectrum¹¹ of opinion, I fall on the side where the Agreed Framework was our last best opportunity. And the windows have shrunk and shrunk and shrunk since then.

KELEMEN: Hanham says there is a lot of pessimism¹² in the arms control business these days.

HANHAM: The giant asterisk¹³ with Trump is that no one can predict what he's going to do. And unfortunately, that goes true for North Korea, too.

KELEMEN: When it comes to Iran, another arms control expert, Lacey Healy of the Stimson Center, says it could be difficult for Trump to renegotiate the deal because other countries are parties to it.

LACEY HEALY: This is going to be an interesting one, given his emphasis on the relationship with Russia. Russia is not going to want us to simply rip up this deal. They are one of our negotiating partners. And this deal is important to them.

KELEMEN: So if we see - in her words - the deal-maker Trump rather than the bombastic¹⁴ one, he will have to consider those relationships with Russia and with Europe. All eyes are on who he picks for secretary of state and other key foreign policy positions. Michele Kelemen, NPR News, Washington.

1 browser   

n.浏览者

参考例句：

• View edits in a web browser.在浏览器中看编辑的效果。
• I think my browser has a list of shareware links.我想在浏览器中会有一系列的共享软件链接。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

4 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

7 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

8 misgivings   

n.疑虑，担忧，害怕；疑虑，担心，恐惧( misgiving的名词复数 )；疑惧

参考例句：

• I had grave misgivings about making the trip. 对于这次旅行我有过极大的顾虑。
• Don't be overtaken by misgivings and fear. Just go full stream ahead! 不要瞻前顾后， 畏首畏尾。甩开膀子干吧！ 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

10 scrapping   

刮，切除坯体余泥

参考例句：

• He was always scrapping at school. 他在学校总打架。
• These two dogs are always scrapping. 这两条狗总是打架。

11 spectrum   

n.谱，光谱，频谱；范围，幅度，系列

参考例句：

• This is a kind of atomic spectrum.这是一种原子光谱。
• We have known much of the constitution of the solar spectrum.关于太阳光谱的构成，我们已了解不少。

12 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

13 asterisk   

n.星号，星标

参考例句：

• The asterisk refers the reader to a footnote.星号是让读者参看脚注。
• He added an asterisk to the first page.他在第一页上加了个星号。

14 bombastic   

adj.夸夸其谈的，言过其实的

参考例句：

• The candidate spoke in a bombastic way of all that he would do if elected.候选人大肆吹嘘，一旦他当选将要如何如何。
• The orator spoke in a bombastic manner.这位演说家的讲话言过其实。