美国国家公共电台 NPR Why You Shouldn't Count On The Promised $4,000 'Raise' From GOP Tax Plan

 

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

There's not yet a bill for the Republican plan to overhaul¹ the tax code. But the White House already has one of its main talking points. This week, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders tweeted that American households would get what she called a $4,000 raise from the plan. NPR political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben has been digging into this number, what it means and how realistic it is. And she's here with us in the studio to tell us about what she's learned. Hi, Danielle.

DANIELLE KURTZLEBEN, BYLINE²: Hey, Ari.

SHAPIRO: So an extra $4,000 would be a big deal for a lot of American families. You report, though, that households should not count on this kind of a raise. Why not?

KURTZLEBEN: Right. So we can't exactly fact-check a prediction. But here's what I can tell you. There are several reasons to doubt this figure. And this is tax policy. And that means it's complicated.

SHAPIRO: Well, lay it out for us.

KURTZLEBEN: All right. So in a recent report, the White House's Council of Economic Advisers³ said this - if we cut the corporate⁴ tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent - that it will help workers. The basic idea here is that when a company pays taxes, some of that burden gets passed on to workers, resulting in lower wages. So a higher tax bill ends up resulting in lower wages. Likewise, a lower tax bill would result in higher wages for workers. But here's the important thing. Economists⁵ disagree widely on how much of a business's corporate tax burden is eventually passed on to workers.

SHAPIRO: So how'd the White House get this specific number, $4,000?

KURTZLEBEN: Right. So to reach that $4,000 figure, the White House looked at a range of estimates but then relied on one particular one to do the math. And that ended up showing that the average household in one year would end up getting more than $4,000 in income. Incidentally, not only that, but the White House says that that $4,000 is a conservative estimate. They also said the actual figure could go as high as $9,000 per household.

But there are other economists with other estimates. And, in fact, until very recently, the Treasury⁶ Department's website included a paper saying the corporations really don't pass all that much of their tax bills onto their workers, at least not as much as this White House says they do. And, incidentally, that paper recently disappeared from the Treasury Department's website.

SHAPIRO: Well, can a corporate tax cut end up helping⁷ average workers?

KURTZLEBEN: Yes, absolutely. That's not a stretch. But the question is how much. I mean, look, even some right-leaning economists would argue that the White House is being overly optimistic in its math here. One critique they have is about fiscal⁸ discipline - that a tax cut that grows the deficit⁹ in a big way, as this plan very well might, could eventually hurt overall economic growth.

And, of course, there's some criticism from the left. Some economists there say, you know, look, if you really want to give working-class people more money, just give them a tax cut instead of hoping and assuming that corporations will pass, you know, more money on to workers. And, by the way, we don't know exactly yet who would pay what rate under a new GOP plan.

But the important thing to remember here is this - we're only talking right now about the corporate part of the tax overhaul. That's what this $4,000 figure refers to. Whatever Congress ends up doing is going to be broader than that. It's going to be about individual rates, deductions¹⁰ - that sort of thing.

SHAPIRO: And it seems like even when we do have a specific plan from Congress, the answer to this question - will the $4,000 raise be real? - won't be known until the bill ultimately passes, if it passes.

KURTZLEBEN: Absolutely. And it will take some time. It's not going to happen immediately. These things take time to work into the system.

SHAPIRO: That's NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben. Thanks a lot, Danielle.

KURTZLEBEN: Yes, thank you.

1 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

4 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

10 deductions   

扣除( deduction的名词复数 )； 结论； 扣除的量； 推演

参考例句：

• Many of the older officers trusted agents sightings more than cryptanalysts'deductions. 许多年纪比较大的军官往往相信特务的发现，而不怎么相信密码分析员的推断。
• You know how you rush at things,jump to conclusions without proper deductions. 你知道你处理问题是多么仓促，毫无合适的演绎就仓促下结论。