美国国家公共电台 NPR Is This The Right Time For a Big Tax Cut?

 

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

Republicans are smoothing out the details of their tax overhaul¹ legislation. They're hoping for final passage this month. They say the changes will lead to more jobs, more investment. Most economists², though, are questioning the timing³. They say the U.S. economy is already at near-full employment, and pushing for faster growth in 2018 could backfire. NPR's Jim Zarroli reports.

JIM ZARROLI, BYLINE⁴: It sounds like an admirable goal. Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Surely no one could object to that. But in the opinion of some economists, a tax cut is the last thing the U.S. needs right now. For one thing, the economy has been growing steadily⁵ for years. Growth last quarter was a healthy 3.3 percent. Unemployment is down to 4.1 percent. Jared Bernstein of the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (ph) says this isn't the time to be thinking about a tax cut. For one thing, there's the impact it will have on federal borrowing.

JARED BERNSTEIN: I think the timing of this tax cut from the perspective of the deficit⁶ is completely upside down.

ZARROLI: Bernstein says he no deficit hawk⁷, but he says when the economy is growing, common sense says you should be paying off some of your debt.

BERNSTEIN: It's that simple, you know? What are you supposed to do with your roof when the sun shines? Fix it, not put a hole in it.

ZARROLI: Instead, according to Congress's Joint⁸ Committee on Taxation⁹, the tax overhaul could add a trillion dollars to the debt over the next decade even after taking extra growth into consideration. That means the government won't have as much money as it needs when the next recession comes around. On ABC "This Week" yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dismissed deficit concerns.

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MITCH MCCONNELL: So I'm confident this is not only revenue-neutral to the government but actually is very likely to be a revenue producer.

ZARROLI: McConnell says the tax cuts will lead to faster growth, which will mean more revenue for the government, and that should keep the deficit in check. But there's another macroeconomic problem with cutting taxes right now. Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner says if a tax cut is designed well, it can be a good thing. It can mean companies have more money to spend on new factories and equipment.

RANDY KROSZNER: To the extent that the tax reform focuses on trying to increase the incentives¹⁰ for investment, increase productivity growth in the economy, that's always a plus.

ZARROLI: Kroszner says the tax bill being considered by Congress appears to have some good features in it, but he says there's always a risk cutting taxes will lead to higher inflation. And if it looks like that's happening, the Federal Reserve will step in to cool down the economy.

KROSZNER: If it's seen as something that's just short-term, the Fed is likely to offset¹¹ that to make sure the economy doesn't overheat, and that is, inflation doesn't get too high.

ZARROLI: The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to do so again this month. Former Fed Vice¹² President Alan Blinder says there's already a consensus¹³ on the Fed that the economy is at or near full employment. Increasing demand by cutting taxes could amount to more stimulus¹⁴ than the economy needs.

ALAN BLINDER: I think they would say, we already have pretty much a fully¹⁵ employed economy. A boost to aggregate¹⁶ demand is not exactly what the doctor ordered.

ZARROLI: So this is a strange situation. When the Great Recession began a decade ago, both Congress and the Fed tried to do whatever they could to bolster¹⁷ the economy, but now they're beginning to pull in opposite directions. Last weekend, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, William Dudley, seemed to question the need for a tax cut. He told the Wall Street Journal it's probably not the best time to be trying to stimulate¹⁸ the economy. So while Republicans say they want to make the economy grow faster, Fed policymakers could actually undercut that effort by raising interest rates. Jim Zarroli, NPR News, New York.

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1 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 hawk   

n.鹰，骗子；鹰派成员

参考例句：

• The hawk swooped down on the rabbit and killed it.鹰猛地朝兔子扑下来,并把它杀死。
• The hawk snatched the chicken and flew away.老鹰叼了小鸡就飞走了。

8 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

9 taxation   

n.征税，税收，税金

参考例句：

• He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。

10 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

11 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

12 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

13 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

14 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

15 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

16 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

17 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

18 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。