美国国家公共电台 NPR Are The U.S. And China Headed For A Cold War?

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Three decades after the Cold War ended between the U.S. and the Soviet¹ Union, some American intelligence officials are wondering out loud if there is a new Cold War brewing², this one between the U.S. and China. The Defense³ Intelligence Agency has released its first unclassified report on China's military. Here's NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE⁴: The head of analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency, Neil Wiley, has a top-floor office suited for deep reflection. He looks out over the Potomac River and across the water toward the top brass⁵ at the Pentagon.

NEIL WILEY: It's actually a pretty spectacular view. I'll take...

MYRE: Which helps him contemplate⁶ big ideas, like challenges the U.S. faces with China, now routinely described as America's main rival. For the first time, the DIA has put out an unclassified report on China's military, similar to those it issued on the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

WILEY: Chinese military has undergone a substantial program of modernization⁷, to the point now where they are a near-peer military.

MYRE: The report doesn't use the term cold war, but it catalogues China's military rise - a budget second only to the U.S., aggressive moves on disputed islands in the South China Sea, joint⁸ military exercises with Russia. Historian Walter Russell Mead⁹ recently wrote a Wall Street Journal column under the headline "Americans Aren't Ready For Cold War II." The U.S. has failed to build a consensus¹⁰ on dealing¹¹ with China, he says, in contrast to the unified¹² American front against the Soviets¹³. He doesn't think the U.S. and China are doomed¹⁴ to a military showdown, but he's quick to add...

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: This has almost always been the case through human history - that when people rationally sum up the costs and benefits of war, it's very often the smarter thing not to go to war. And yet wars still happen.

MYRE: The U.S. and the Soviets waged a political and military rivalry¹⁵. The U.S.-China relationship is far more complex. There's a half trillion dollars in annual trade, 350,000 Chinese students at U.S. colleges, tourists jetting back and forth¹⁶ daily. For these reasons, Susan Thornton, a senior U.S. diplomat¹⁷ for Asian affairs until her retirement¹⁸ a year ago, thinks the Cold War analogy is overblown. And yet...

SUSAN THORNTON: I do fear that we are headed into an era of unceasing kind of confrontation¹⁹, where the U.S. is seeking to challenge China on every front from military to economic to technological²⁰.

MYRE: She feels the current U.S. approach, including the trade war, is raising tensions. Roy Kamphausen is a retired²¹ Army officer who heads the nonpartisan National Bureau of Asian Research. He says China has adopted an increasingly negative view of the U.S.

ROY KAMPHAUSEN: The Chinese leadership judged that the United States was - is a wasting great power by virtue²² of our mismanagement of our financial system, which led to the great financial crisis.

MYRE: And on the military front...

KAMPHAUSEN: They see our entanglements²³ in wars as diminishing our power for very little strategic gain. And so they sense an opportunity. They sense that their time is now.

MYRE: The Chinese government recently issued its own military assessment²⁴. It says the U.S. has, quote, "provoked and intensified²⁵ competition" among major countries, adding complexity²⁶ to regional security in Asia. So where's all this heading? Analysts²⁷ cite three important areas to watch. The first one is Taiwan. Neil Wiley says there's...

WILEY: The clear and consistent desire on the part of China to have a military option for the reunification of Taiwan.

MYRE: Roy Kamphausen adds a caveat²⁸, noting that China hasn't fought a war in 40 years.

KAMPHAUSEN: That's a military that's terribly risk averse²⁹. The Chinese want to intimidate³⁰, coerce³¹, influence Taiwan in directions that support their own objectives, you know, below the threshold of getting the U.S. involved militarily.

MYRE: A second big issue, says Walter Russell Mead, is China's vulnerability at sea.

MEAD: The strongest tool America has is its ability to stop ocean commerce going in and out of China.

MYRE: China depends on global trade. That includes crucial imports like oil and gas and its exports to the world. If the U.S. ever imposed a naval³² blockade...

MEAD: You'd have a massive economic seize-up inside China.

MYRE: A third big concern is the ongoing³³ cyberbattle. The U.S. accuses China of waging nonstop cyberattacks on government, military and commercial targets. There's a high risk of escalation³⁴.

MEAD: We don't know what China's cybercapacities are. They don't know what ours are. And in any case, both countries' capacities and the field of engagement is dramatically changing from year to year.

MYRE: Add all this up, and you get two countries locked in constant competition. The challenge is to keep competition from turning into confrontation.

Greg Myre, NPR News, Washington.

1 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

2 brewing   

n. 酿造, 一次酿造的量 动词brew的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• It was obvious that a big storm was brewing up. 很显然，一场暴风雨正在酝酿中。
• She set about brewing some herb tea. 她动手泡一些药茶。

3 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 brass   

n.黄铜；黄铜器，铜管乐器

参考例句：

• Many of the workers play in the factory's brass band.许多工人都在工厂铜管乐队中演奏。
• Brass is formed by the fusion of copper and zinc.黄铜是通过铜和锌的熔合而成的。

6 contemplate   

vt.盘算，计议；周密考虑；注视，凝视

参考例句：

• The possibility of war is too horrifying to contemplate.战争的可能性太可怕了，真不堪细想。
• The consequences would be too ghastly to contemplate.后果不堪设想。

7 modernization   

n.现代化，现代化的事物

参考例句：

• This will help us achieve modernization.这有助于我们实现现代化。
• The Chinese people are sure to realize the modernization of their country.中国人民必将实现国家现代化。

8 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

9 mead   

n.蜂蜜酒

参考例句：

• He gave me a cup of mead.他给我倒了杯蜂蜜酒。
• He drank some mead at supper.晚饭时他喝了一些蜂蜜酒。

10 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

11 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

12 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

13 soviets   

苏维埃（Soviet的复数形式）

参考例句：

• A public challenge could provoke the Soviets to dig in. 公开挑战会促使苏联人一意孤行。
• The Soviets proposed the withdrawal of American ballistic-missile submarines from forward bases. 苏联人建议把美国的弹道导弹潜艇从前沿基地撤走。

14 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

15 rivalry   

n.竞争，竞赛，对抗

参考例句：

• The quarrel originated in rivalry between the two families.这次争吵是两家不和引起的。
• He had a lot of rivalry with his brothers and sisters.他和兄弟姐妹间经常较劲。

16 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

17 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

18 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

19 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

20 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

21 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

22 virtue   

n.德行，美德；贞操；优点；功效，效力

参考例句：

• He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
• You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。

23 entanglements   

n.瓜葛( entanglement的名词复数 )；牵连；纠缠；缠住

参考例句：

• Mr. White threaded his way through the legal entanglements. 怀特先生成功地解决了这些法律纠纷。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At dawn we broke through the barbed wire entanglements under the city wall. 拂晓我们突破了城墙的铁丝网。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

25 intensified   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Violence intensified during the night. 在夜间暴力活动加剧了。
• The drought has intensified. 旱情加剧了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

27 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

28 caveat   

n.警告； 防止误解的说明

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling.为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。
• As I have written before,that's quite a caveat.正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。

29 averse   

adj.厌恶的；反对的，不乐意的

参考例句：

• I don't smoke cigarettes,but I'm not averse to the occasional cigar.我不吸烟，但我不反对偶尔抽一支雪茄。
• We are averse to such noisy surroundings.我们不喜欢这么吵闹的环境。

30 intimidate   

vt.恐吓，威胁

参考例句：

• You think you can intimidate people into doing what you want?你以为你可以威胁别人做任何事？
• The first strike capacity is intended mainly to intimidate adversary.第一次攻击的武力主要是用来吓阻敌方的。

31 coerce   

v.强迫，压制

参考例句：

• You can't coerce her into obedience.你不能强制她服从。
• Do you think there is any way that we can coerce them otherwise?你认为我们有什么办法强迫他们不那样吗？

32 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

33 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

34 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句