PBS高端访谈:敦促商界注意气候的变化

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Finally tonight: new estimates on the cost of climate change and the attention it's drawing about the potential economic effect in the U.S.

　　For years, reports on climate change have largely been the province of scientists. But a new group of business and political leaders is now trying to focus on the costs.

　　Called the Risky¹ Business Project, the nonpartisan effort is led by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, former Treasury² Secretary Henry Paulson, a Republican, and billionaire financier and Democratic donor³ Tom Steyer. The group warned Tuesday that if carbon dioxide levels continue rising at their current pace, between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of U.S. coastal⁴ property will likely be below sea level by 2050, days with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees may triple, and farm production could drop 14 percent.

　　In a video statement, Bloomberg says it's time to change course.

　　FMR. MAYOR MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, I, New York City: If you invest in real estate, commodities, municipal or corporate⁵ bonds, these risks matter to you. Unless we get serious about managing the risk of climate change, we're likely to see more severe losses in the future.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: The group calls for a comprehensive response, but makes no specific recommendations.

　　Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson joins me now. Thank you for being with us.

　　HENRY PAULSON, Former Secretary of the Treasury: Judy, it's good to be here.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, this is an effort to focus on the economic impact of climate change, rather than the effect on human health. Why?

　　HENRY PAULSON: Well, absolutely.

　　There's been a lot of work that's been done in the past on the environment and the huge risks that climate pose to the way of life as we lead it here on this planet and so on.

　　But this is the first serious look on an industry-sector-by-industry-sector basis, region-by-region basis to try to quantify the economic impacts, because those are every bit as real as the environmental impacts.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So we just heard about some of the data that you — that's in this report. But let's try to get a clearer understanding. I mean, when it comes to the coastal areas of the United States, when it comes to temperature change in the center of the country, what are you finding?

　　HENRY PAULSON: Well, Judy, first of all, we look at the most likely cases. We look at best cases. We look at worst cases, because this is about insurance and taking out an insurance policy, so this is about understanding the risks and managing the risks.

　　Now, what we see in some ways shouldn't be surprising, because areas that are hardest-hit are the coastal areas. Let's start with the coastal areas. You know, you look out even, you know, to just mid-century, you will have somewhere between $75 billion and $120 billion of infrastructure⁶ underwater.

　　You know, so there's serious damage there. I grew up on a farm in Illinois. And if you look at what we call the I-states, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, you know, they get hit pretty hard in terms of agriculture as the — as time moves on.

　　If you look out, you know, 15, 25 years, agricultural production goes down 10 percent. If you go out farther, it goes dramatically down as these states which benefited from being a temperate⁷ zone become arid⁸ states and farming goes farther — farther north or to Canada.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And your concern is that these economic impacts have not really been focused on before now?

　　HENRY PAULSON: Yes, it's — that's absolutely right, and because what you are going to increasingly see, and what we're seeing right now, is that when Mother Nature acts, and you have these natural disasters, whether they're tornadoes⁹ or hurricanes like Sandy or floods or forest fires, that what happens is, the government comes in.

　　That's the role of government. People expect to government to come in. We all pay. These are big economic costs that go along with these. And what you find is, if you look at it carefully, if there was spending today, relatively¹⁰ small amounts of spending, to harden infrastructure, be smart about where you build plants, that we could avoid a fair amount of these costs.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, let's talk about that. I mean, one of the things you specifically have said you think should be done is a tax on carbon, a tax on companies that emit carbon dioxide.

　　You have already acknowledged that members of your own Republican Party aren't going to like this idea, so how do you persuade them that it's the right thing to do?

　　HENRY PAULSON: Judy, just to step back for one minute and make a huge point about this study, this study is bipartisan, Republicans, Democrats…JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

　　HENRY PAULSON: … Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Bob Rubin, et cetera.

　　So what we do is, we don't focus on solutions in the study. I will get to me and the carbon tax in a minute. But — but we're starting in the middle here. We're — what we want to do is just understand the risks, use business-type methodologies, start a fact-based discussion on the science and on the economics. And I think that there are — I know many, many Republicans, CEOs of companies, political leaders that are ready for a fact-based discussion.

　　Now, in terms of the carbon tax, which is a fee on — you know, that companies pay that emit carbon, this is, I think, the most efficient way to change the behaviors and creates incentives¹¹ for new clean energy technologies.

　　But the reason I am suggesting that is because, as you look at these risks, you see that some of the risks — you know, some of the costs are already baked in.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: But in terms of the carbon tax, there's already pushback from conservatives. You're not surprised to hear that. They are saying, first of all, they don't believe the climate change threat is as serious as you say it is. And, secondarily, they say a tax is the last thing Americans need, another levy¹² on business owners.

　　HENRY PAULSON: Right.

　　And that was why the tax proposal was one I made in an op-ed I wrote. In terms of this study, the study is going to be one that's a lot harder to attack. And I think that people are going to welcome it, because it's very rigorous. We look at best cases. We look at worst cases. We use very standard business risk analysis methodology.

　　And, so, one of the things we're calling on — and we're focused on business here. And there's three things that I think businesses need to do. And, first, when they make investments, they need to, I think, be very conscious of the climate risks, in terms of the kinds of facilities they build, where they build them, and because these are long-term investments and it makes a — it makes a big difference.

　　Secondly¹³, I think investors¹⁴ need to call on businesses. And businesses, in my judgment¹⁵, need to start making disclosures of the CO2 emissions¹⁶, of where they're — you know, possibly stranded¹⁷ assets, so that investors can look at these risks, and I would like to see the SEC do something there. And, then, thirdly…JUDY WOODRUFF: Securities and Exchange Commission.

　　HENRY PAULSON: Yes.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: That's the government proposal again.

　　HENRY PAULSON: Yes, in terms of requiring that, because that, again, would really start a very serious discussion about this.

　　And then, thirdly, working on policies that will help us avoid these really adverse¹⁸ risks. So, when I say to people, and they say, well, we don't — why should we do something so dramatically? We want more facts. And I'm saying that's radical¹⁹ risk-taking, taking this cautious approach, because if you wait until you have all the facts, it will be too late.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: But my question is that if a group like this that believes that climate change is coming and is very serious can't come together on a group — a set of solutions, how do you expect policy-makers and others to come together on solutions?

　　HENRY PAULSON: Well, we didn't try to come together on solutions. That wasn't even a thought. The idea was, let's come together and really put facts out there.

　　I bet you would find everybody in this group, although we may differ to a degree, everyone would like to see strong action. I'm not saying this is going to bring everybody to the table or that this is going to solve the issue. But business executives play a significant role. And if you get leadership from them, and they're talking seriously about it, and they're taking the kinds of steps they need to take, this will be — this will advance the discussion, and I think make it easier for, you know, federal government to do some of the things they need to do, and harder not to.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, getting the debate started, thank you very much.

　　HENRY PAULSON: Thank you.

1 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

2 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

3 donor   

n.捐献者；赠送人；(组织、器官等的)供体

参考例句：

• In these cases,the recipient usually takes care of the donor afterwards.在这类情况下，接受捐献者以后通常会照顾捐赠者。
• The Doctor transplanted the donor's heart to Mike's chest cavity.医生将捐赠者的心脏移植进麦克的胸腔。

4 coastal   

adj.海岸的，沿海的，沿岸的

参考例句：

• The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。

5 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

6 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

7 temperate   

adj.温和的，温带的，自我克制的，不过分的

参考例句：

• Asia extends across the frigid,temperate and tropical zones.亚洲地跨寒、温、热三带。
• Great Britain has a temperate climate.英国气候温和。

8 arid   

adj.干旱的；(土地)贫瘠的

参考例句：

• These trees will shield off arid winds and protect the fields.这些树能挡住旱风,保护农田。
• There are serious problems of land degradation in some arid zones.在一些干旱地带存在严重的土地退化问题。

9 tornadoes   

n.龙卷风，旋风( tornado的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Tornadoes, severe earthquakes, and plagues create wide spread havoc. 龙卷风、大地震和瘟疫成普遍的毁坏。 来自互联网
• Meteorologists are at odds over the working of tornadoes. 气象学者对龙卷风的运动方式看法不一。 来自互联网

10 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

11 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

12 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

13 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

16 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

17 stranded   

a.搁浅的，进退两难的

参考例句：

• He was stranded in a strange city without money. 他流落在一个陌生的城市里， 身无分文，一筹莫展。
• I was stranded in the strange town without money or friends. 我困在那陌生的城市，既没有钱，又没有朋友。

18 adverse   

adj.不利的；有害的；敌对的，不友好的

参考例句：

• He is adverse to going abroad.他反对出国。
• The improper use of medicine could lead to severe adverse reactions.用药不当会产生严重的不良反应。

19 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。