PBS高端访谈:人类生存于数字时代

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Hari Sreenivasan looks at the promise and perils¹ of Silicon²'s Valley push into a realm once dominated by government contractors³.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: The race for the next big thing is already under way in the private sector⁴. Companies like Google call them moon shots, from the driverless cars, to computer that you can wear as glasses, to these very advanced robots.

　　Amazon founder⁵ and CEO Jeff Bezos fueled the buzz last month when he announced that his company is working on using drones to deliver packages to your door.

　　To help us move beyond the gee⁶ whiz of all this and think about some of the changes to society that these projects might usher⁷ in, I'm joined now by Jaron Lanier. He's a pioneer in the field of virtual reality. And he's a computer scientist. He is the author of several books, including "Who Owns The Future?" a look at how network technologies affect our culture and economy. And Andrew McAfee, he's associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the Sloan School of Management at MIT and co-author of "The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies."

　　So, Andrew, I want to start with you.

　　How different is this moment? Is the pace of change and technological⁸ change accelerating?

　　It sure feels that way to me and my co-author, Erik Brynjolfsson.

　　And the reason we're calling our book "The Second Machine Age" is it feels to us like we are at an inflection point, the early stages of one where we're starting to see digital gear do stuff that it could never, ever do before. Hemingway has a great quote about how a man goes broke. He said it's gradually and then suddenly.

　　And that reminds me of the kinds of progress that we're seeing in robotics and artificial intelligence and augmented⁹ reality and a lot of these different fields, where we had really gradual, uninspiring progress for a long time, and now they're becoming everyday reality. I got a ride in the Google Car last summer. It was an amazing experience and I walked away without a scratch.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Jaron Lanier, is technology facilitating change to our humanity faster than it used to?

　　JARON LANIER, Author, "Who Owns the Future?": You know, it's a little hard to say. If you look at the early part of the 20th century, the waves of change from, you know, automobiles¹⁰, and telephones, television, all these things, were really amazingly dramatic. And they happened, in a way, more rapidly than change comes to us today.

　　So I'm a little hesitant to make these comparisons. But whatever the comparison might properly be, we can say that there are huge changes going on that could really change how people live and work and could completely change our economic and social roles. And that's the thing wehave to focus on.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Andrew, is the technology primarily about increasing productivity or the economy of consumption?

　　ANDREW MCAFEE: Sure, yes, I think that is what's going on, but I want to put it in slightly different terms.

　　What we want are society's economic engine to do is turn out more goods and services. And when you say it that way, it's easy to make it sound trivial, like we're just talking about cheap plastic gear and empty calories. But that's the wrong way to think about it. When I say more goods and services, I mean things like more education, better health care, better entertainment options, all of these kinds of things.

　　What we want our economic engine to do is turn out lots of goods and services, more over time, higher quality over time and lower prices all the time. That's the miracle of the capitalist systems that we have set up.

　　When I look at what the technology-producing sector is doing these days, I think it's doing by far the best job of accelerating that economic engine, and I think it's fundamentally great news.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Jaron?

　　JARON LANIER: You know, I think there's something kind of tricky¹¹ going on, which is that we're creating more services and we're lowering the prices of those services, which is wonderful. But we're doing so in a way that we pretend that a lot of people aren't contributing economically, when they really are.

　　A great example is the automatic translation between languages. And the truth is that to translate from English to Spanish automatically requires taking as examples a constant influx¹² of real translations done by people. And yet professional translators are seeing their job prospects¹³ decline, just like musicians and journalists.

　　And so there's something funny going on. We're using human labor¹⁴ in a way that we erase¹⁵ the value of the people. So, I mean, we want to have a productive economy. But if it's one that also negates¹⁶ human roles, it's all for naught¹⁷.

　　I mean, we have to also preserve great roles for people, or the society will suffer.

　　ANDREW MCAFEE: I'm with Jaron. There are some really interesting new wrinkles going on in how we create these goods and services, and how we take into account the contributions of different people.

　　I want to return to this concept of an economic engine, and the role of an economic engine is not to insure full employment for everybody. That would be very easy to do if, for example, we suddenly mandated¹⁸ that you have to plant and harvest all the crops in America by hand.

　　We would immediately have full employment. A lot of those jobs would be miserable¹⁹ and the prices we pay for food would go up. So it's really the wrong thing to focus on.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Jaron, you outline some of this in your book about who owns the future. What are these destabilizing forces that technology brings with it?

　　JARON LANIER: Well, you know, you can go to two extremes. You can either say let's make work for everybody, like a Maoist regime. And I think we all know that that is a road to ruin. No one advocates that.

　　But we're doing something in a way that is stupid in the other direction, where we're pretending that people aren't contributing economically, when they are. We're pretending that just making things cheaper is enough to create economic viability²⁰. And you can't do that.

　　I mean, you have to -- people have to be valued for what they actually do. The economy has to be honest. And so what I am concerned about is that by getting everybody to input²¹ all their productivity for free to these Silicon Valley companies, including the one that funds my lab, by the way, so I'm a beneficiary of what I'm criticizing -- but in order to pretend that all this stuff, you know, it comes in for free, and what we give people in exchange is access to services, we're taking them out of the economic cycle.

　　We're putting them into an informal economy, which is an unbalanced way to grow a society. And that's also a road to ruin. I'm not asking for artificial make-work projects. I'm asking for honesty, where we acknowledge when people generate value, and make them first-class economic citizens.

　　And then I think that all of these amazing schemes of automation, the self-driving cars, the 3-D printers, these will lead to a world of happy, meaningful lives, as well as great economic growth. You know, that's the ticket, is honesty.

　　ANDREW MCAFEE: Yes, I have some trouble putting those ideas into practice.

　　So, for example, Jaron, would you charge my brother to upload pictures of his daughters to Facebook, or would you charge me to look at my nieces?

　　JARON LANIER: You know, given what I have been seeing on Facebook lately, I think anything that sort of decreases people's tendency to upload everything might actually be a good thing. So I think we should economically incentivize less uploading. So I would say let's charge you both. How about that?

　　ANDREW MCAFEE: I think that is absolutely a terrible idea. It takes us in exactly the opposite direction that we want from our economic engine.

　　Facebook is doing this amazing feat²² where they are delivering a service that is valued by on the order of a billion people around the world. And they're not charging them hard, cold cash for using that service, and yet they're a very profitable company. Now, it's not a deep secret how they do that. It's called advertising²³.

　　And I don't think many of Facebook's users are unaware²⁴ of how that works, just like I wasn't unaware when I sat around as a kid andwatched network television about what was funding that business model. So I don't think there's anything either opaque²⁵ or deeply sinister²⁶ about what is going on. These are just some nice economic models whereby these technology companies can put things in front of us that we value, that we use, and charge us no money for them. I don't see that as bad news.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Jaron Lanier and Andrew McAfee, thanks so much for your time.

1 perils   

极大危险( peril的名词复数 )； 危险的事（或环境）

参考例句：

• The commander bade his men be undaunted in the face of perils. 指挥员命令他的战士要临危不惧。
• With how many more perils and disasters would he load himself? 他还要再冒多少风险和遭受多少灾难？

2 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

3 contractors   

n.（建筑、监造中的）承包人( contractor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• We got estimates from three different contractors before accepting the lowest. 我们得到3个承包商的报价后，接受了最低的报价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Contractors winning construction jobs had to kick back 2 per cent of the contract price to the mafia. 赢得建筑工作的承包商得抽出合同价格的百分之二的回扣给黑手党。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

5 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

6 gee   

n.马；int.向右！前进！，惊讶时所发声音；v.向右转

参考例句：

• Their success last week will gee the team up.上星期的胜利将激励这支队伍继续前进。
• Gee,We're going to make a lot of money.哇！我们会赚好多钱啦！

7 usher   

n.带位员，招待员；vt.引导，护送；vi.做招待，担任引座员

参考例句：

• The usher seated us in the front row.引座员让我们在前排就座。
• They were quickly ushered away.他们被迅速领开。

8 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

9 Augmented   

adj.增音的 动词augment的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• 'scientists won't be replaced," he claims, "but they will be augmented." 他宣称：“科学家不会被取代；相反，他们会被拓展。” 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• The impact of the report was augmented by its timing. 由于发表的时间选得好，这篇报导的影响更大了。

10 automobiles   

n.汽车( automobile的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• When automobiles become popular,the use of the horse and buggy passed away. 汽车普及后，就不再使用马和马车了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Automobiles speed in an endless stream along the boulevard. 宽阔的林荫道上，汽车川流不息。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

12 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

13 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

14 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

15 erase   

v.擦掉；消除某事物的痕迹

参考例句：

• He tried to erase the idea from his mind.他试图从头脑中抹掉这个想法。
• Please erase my name from the list.请把我的名字从名单上擦去。

16 negates   

v.取消( negate的第三人称单数 )；使无效；否定；否认

参考例句：

• Alcohol negates the effects of the drug. 酒精能使药物失效。
• The lack of deep hardening in these alloys negates their use. 这些合金缺乏深层硬化能力使它们无法利用。 来自辞典例句

17 naught   

n.无，零 [=nought]

参考例句：

• He sets at naught every convention of society.他轻视所有的社会习俗。
• I hope that all your efforts won't go for naught.我希望你的努力不会毫无结果。

18 mandated   

adj. 委托统治的

参考例句：

• Mandated desegregation of public schools. 命令解除公立学校中的种族隔离
• Britain was mandated to govern the former colony of German East Africa. 英国受权代管德国在东非的前殖民地。

19 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

20 viability   

n.存活(能力)

参考例句：

• What is required to achieve or maintain such viability? 要达到或维持这种生存能力需要什么？
• Scientists are experimenting to find ways to ensure the viability of seeds for even longer periods of time. 正如我们所说，科学家正在试验努力寻找让种子的生命力更加延长的方法。

21 input   

n.输入(物)；投入；vt.把(数据等)输入计算机

参考例句：

• I will forever be grateful for his considerable input.我将永远感激他的大量投入。
• All this information had to be input onto the computer.所有这些信息都必须输入计算机。

22 feat   

n.功绩；武艺，技艺；adj.灵巧的，漂亮的，合适的

参考例句：

• Man's first landing on the moon was a feat of great daring.人类首次登月是一个勇敢的壮举。
• He received a medal for his heroic feat.他因其英雄业绩而获得一枚勋章。

23 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

24 unaware   

a.不知道的，未意识到的

参考例句：

• They were unaware that war was near. 他们不知道战争即将爆发。
• I was unaware of the man's presence. 我没有察觉到那人在场。

25 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

26 sinister   

adj.不吉利的，凶恶的，左边的

参考例句：

• There is something sinister at the back of that series of crimes.在这一系列罪行背后有险恶的阴谋。
• Their proposals are all worthless and designed out of sinister motives.他们的建议不仅一钱不值，而且包藏祸心。