PBS高端访谈:对话诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒

 　　GWEN IFILL: Finally tonight, a conversation with one of the winners of this year's Nobel Prize for Economics.

　　The prizes were handed out yesterday in Stockholm. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller was one of three Americans honored for research on how financial markets work and how assets, like stocks, are priced.

　　Our economics correspondent, Paul Solman, recently talked with Professor Shiller about the award.

　　It's part of Paul's ongoing¹ reporting Making Sense of financial news.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: How surprised were you at getting the Nobel Prize?

　　(LAUGHTER)

　　ROBERT SHILLER, Yale University: Well, there were people telling me I would get it.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Really?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: But they're my friends, right?

　　In fact, I asked other professors, do you have friends telling you that you're going get the Nobel Prize? And they said, yes. So I thought every professor has friends telling them that.

　　(LAUGHTER)

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Can you say in a sentence or two what you got the Nobel Prize for?

　　(LAUGHTER)

　　ROBERT SHILLER: I don't know.

　　There is a long scientific background paper on the Nobel Web site and it talks about the three of us, GeneFama, Lars Hansen, and me, as contributors to the same body of literature, which seems a little hard, because Gene² Fama especially. It takes a different summary view of it all.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Exactly the opposite in some sense, right?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Right.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: He says the market at any given time reveals what the underlying³ stocks are really worth.

　　ROBERT SHILLER: The whole idea that the stock market reflects fundamentals, I think, is wrong. It reallyreflects psychology⁴. The aggregate⁵ stock market, it reflects psychology more than fundamentals.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Are we experiencing, to use your phrase from 1996, I think, irrational⁶ exuberance⁷ in the stock market again?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Well, some people are.

　　It has bubble elements to it, because people see the market going up, and they're regretting the fact thatthey didn't buy in several years ago. And they're tempted⁸ back into it. But it isn't the really strong bubble that we saw before, because there are so many clouds and there are so many issues on people's minds that it doesn't look like the chance of a lifetime now.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: I know you don't like to make predictions and think they're foolish in some sense.

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Yes.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But I'm not doing my job if I don't ask the Shiller of Case-Shiller...

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Yes. Yes.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: ... what about the housing market at the moment?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: It's a very interesting phenomenon, to me, that there are bubbles in so many different countries around the world, like Brazil.

　　I was just down there a few months ago. And they're going through a huge boom in housing. They have adopted kind of the mentality⁹ that we had eight years ago. It's uncanny. When I was in Brazil and talking to people, I felt like I was in the United States of 2005.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Well, did you start to warn them, the way you warned us then?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Well, I did, although the Brazilian home price boom is interpreted by most Brazilians asa sign of the country emerging.

　　Brazil is joining the advanced countries of the world. And, of course, if you want to buy a condo in Sao Paulo, you have to expect to pay New York prices. That's where it's going, right? And if I say no, then it just feels bad to say that.

　　And I can do it because I'm leaving Brazil. In an hour, in a couple of hours, so I am out of here.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But, I mean, you're a Nobel laureate who won the prize based in large measure on your skepticism about irrational markets, right?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Yes.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: I mean, so you would think the Brazilians would go, oh, my goodness, Bob Shiller is calling a housing bubble?

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Yes, some of them -- some of them did. But I'm sure it stays as a fringe opinion. It's just the forces to -- the patriotic¹⁰ forces. It just doesn't feel good, this alternative view.

　　And, by the way, we have professional economists¹¹ who could defend any viewpoint with statistics. And they -- they do that.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Everywhere in the world.

　　ROBERT SHILLER: Everywhere in the world.

　　Economics is not an exact science. I wanted to be a scientist when I was a child.

　　And I am lamenting¹² ever since that I go into a field where I just can't be exact. And I don't think anybody can. What is the economy going to do next? We just went through the biggest housing bubble in U.S. history. It's off the charts. And now it is starting to go up again. What to make of that? Are we going back into another bubble economy? I don't know. And I don't see how anybody knows that.

1 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

2 gene   

n.遗传因子，基因

参考例句：

• A single gene may have many effects.单一基因可能具有很多种效应。
• The targeting of gene therapy has been paid close attention.其中基因治疗的靶向性是值得密切关注的问题之一。

3 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

4 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

5 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

6 irrational   

adj.无理性的，失去理性的

参考例句：

• After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。
• There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

7 exuberance   

n.丰富；繁荣

参考例句：

• Her burst of exuberance and her brightness overwhelmed me.她勃发的热情和阳光的性格征服了我。
• The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。

8 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

9 mentality   

n.心理，思想，脑力

参考例句：

• He has many years'experience of the criminal mentality.他研究犯罪心理有多年经验。
• Running a business requires a very different mentality from being a salaried employee.经营企业所要求具备的心态和上班族的心态截然不同。

10 patriotic   

adj.爱国的，有爱国心的

参考例句：

• His speech was full of patriotic sentiments.他的演说充满了爱国之情。
• The old man is a patriotic overseas Chinese.这位老人是一位爱国华侨。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 lamenting   

adj.悲伤的，悲哀的v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Katydids were lamenting fall's approach. 蝈蝈儿正为秋天临近而哀鸣。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lamenting because the papers hadn't been destroyed and the money kept. 她正在吃后悔药呢，后悔自己没有毁了那张字条，把钱昧下来！ 来自英汉文学 - 败坏赫德莱堡