PBS高端访谈:关于伊拉克油田的战斗激起了全球对天然气价格的担忧

 　　GWEN IFILL: As Iraq continues to fracture, there are new concerns about the security of its considerable oil production facilities. Only last month, the country's crude oil production reached 3.6 million barrels a day, the most since Saddam Hussein took over in 1979. That made Iraq the seventh largest producer in the world.

　　Fighting at Iraq's biggest oil refinery¹ has raged for a week, with the government army battling fighters from ISIL, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Both sides have claimed to have the upper hand at Baiji, located about 130 miles north of Baghdad.

　　An Iraqi military spokesman yesterday:

　　MAN (through interpreter): The refinery is under the control of our valiant² armed forces. ISIL militants³ could not impose control over a meter. Actually, the fighting has been under way for seven days now, and the result is 92 dead bodies of ISIL militants scattered⁴ in the vicinity of the refinery.

　　GWEN IFILL: The clashes have stopped oil production at the Baiji complex, which had been able to refine up to 300,000 barrels a day. Today, yet another site came under attack. ISIL fighters assaulted the town of Mansouriyat al-Jabal, home to four currently inactive natural gas fields.

　　But amid the growing chaos⁵, the price of crude exports has risen by only $2.35 a barrel, closing at just under $106 a barrel today. Fuel supplies within Iraq are also under strain. In the northern city of Irbil, lines for gasoline stretched more than a mile on Sunday.

　　MAM WALI, Irbil Resident (through interpreter): The current situation affects the people's life and their work. People have business to do. I had to leave my shop and queue here to supply my car with fuel.

　　GWEN IFILL: The turmoil⁶ comes just four months after Iraqi oil production had reached its highest levels in more than 30 years.

　　Joining us for some analysis of what this fresh upheaval⁷ in Iraq means for the energy markets is Greg Priddy, director of the global energy and natural resources at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. And Gianna Bern, the president and founder⁸ of Brookshire Advisory⁹ and Research.

　　As you watch this, Greg Priddy, how nervous does this upheaval make you about what happens with oil prices and with gas prices?

　　GREG PRIDDY, Eurasia Group: Well, I think the market has initially¹⁰ probably overestimated¹¹ the impact of this a little bit, in the sense that most of Iraq's oil production is in a relatively¹² small geographic¹³ area around Basra. That is in…

　　GWEN IFILL: In the southern part.

　　GREG PRIDDY: In the southern part, which is overwhelmingly Shia population.

　　So the militants doing fighting in the north would have very little local support there, and there's really nowhere for them to hide or operate.

　　In the north, you have had the Kirkuk volumes that go out to Turkey to the Mediterranean¹⁴. It's about 230,000 barrels a day. And that's been offline since early March. So that loss has already happened.

　　GWEN IFILL: Gianna Bern, how much of this oil production is intended for internal use, domestic use in Iraq, and how much of it is intended for export?

　　GIANNA BERN, Brookshire Advisory and Research: Well, the vast majority of Iraq's production is intended for export.

　　As you just mentioned in your — just a minute earlier, Iraq's production has reached about 3.3 million barrels per day, and it's come a long way from where its production was several years ago. So the vast majority of it is meant, I would say a good 3.3 million barrels, for export, most of which is coming out of the southern parts of the country.

　　GWEN IFILL: OK. So where is that going? Let me stay with you for a moment. Where is that going? It's coming from the southern part and going to — not to the U.S. Where's it going?

　　GIANNA BERN: Asian — Asian markets are big — big importers, so China, Japan, Korea. Your Asian markets are very significant. European markets are likely to be impacted should this spread further.

　　I think the important thing to mention right now is that where it's at and where crude oil prices are at today, the market has really contained this impact. So the market has absorbed all of this information, all of this activity, and really the market hasn't reacted the way we might have thought several years ago, and — which is a good thing, so — but it's important to note that here the activity and the fighting has not reached some critical areas.

　　So, for now, it's wait and see. And the market has digested all of this information pretty nicely in fact. Crude oil prices — and I think the important one to keep in mind here is the Brent. Brent prices closed about $113 per barrel today. So WTI closed at about $106 per barrel today. So Brent is much more likely to be impacted by any activity in Iraq.

　　GWEN IFILL: Greg Priddy, how different is this than what we saw last time? We're going to through a lot of deja vu here watching what's happening in Iraq militarily and internally.

　　But is there any deja vu, any lessons to be learned from what we saw happen before?

　　GREG PRIDDY: Well, with the previous crises in Iraq, with the invasion, it went offline for quite a while. But that was in an era when the market also was rising for other reasons, because there wasn't a lot of new production coming online and spare capacity was thinned out by that.

　　What we have had now in the last couple of years is a situation where U.S. production's been rising very strongly, as well as the number of other countries around the world, including Iraq, and those — and the Southern Iraq production — and that has kind of offset¹⁵ the losses that we have had from politically driven events in — with Iran sanctions, with the losses from Libya, and now with the losses from Northern Iraq.

　　It's essentially¹⁶ balanced it. And crude prices have been relatively stable over the last couple of years.

　　GWEN IFILL: When you say U.S. production has been on the rise, you're talking about shale¹⁷ production, fracking production?

　　GREG PRIDDY: Yes, that's been most of the increase, with a little bit of offshore¹⁸.

　　GWEN IFILL: And has that offset our reliance, therefore?

　　GREG PRIDDY: Well, it's really one world market. So the price is set globally. It doesn't matter — it's fungible. So it doesn't matter very much who imports from where. Even if the U.S. wasn't buying that much from Iraq — and it does buy a little bit — you know, an outage in Iraq would still have a big impact if it happened.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about one area in the north, Gianna Bern, about the Kurdish area and the area around Kirkuk, which is oil-rich, and which the Kurds now say they want to control.

　　If they maintain control over these areas, over these oil fields, and don't give them back to the central government in Baghdad, does that change the face of the market?

　　GIANNA BERN: Well, it all depends on how this plays out. I mean, right now, this is all hypothetical, but, I mean, the important thing to note here is that Iraq is now the second largest producer in the OPEC organization.

　　So that places them in really a very unique spot when you think about where they have been and how they have progressed over the last several years. There was a time when Iraq was producing as much as Kuwait, which is about two million barrels per day. And with some very significant foreign investment, they have really grown their position. They have grown their production, and now here we have them at the second largest producer in OPEC.

　　And that's a remarkable¹⁹ story for them by itself. So, as they move into the north and as the fighting and the insurgence²⁰ begins to spread, it remains²¹ to be seen how much will go offline. But, for right now, they're holding steady, and it looks — it appears as though the government is being able to contain any significant production from being able to go offline.

　　GWEN IFILL: Well, Greg Priddy, let me ask you this question about the Kurdish regions. If they maintain control over those areas and do not devote — they had a deal with Baghdad about how they would share this and they would be able to get some sort of payment for it. Now they're saying that deal is off. Does that affect the production line at all?

　　GREG PRIDDY: Well, I think the Kurds are potentially the big political winners here, because this increases their leverage²² with Baghdad a lot. The fact that they have control over security at the main Kirkuk oil fields now, and they're probably going to keep that, that means that given that the pipeline²³ out to Turkey that exists right now is not going to come back up, because it's in ISIL-held areas, building an alternative from Kurdistan could eventually get that volume back online.

　　And that definitely adds to their negotiating leverage in dealing²⁴ with Baghdad on their own exports. So there's no guarantees there, but that makes it more likely that you would see some sort of a deal, because Baghdad needs them at this point.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let me ask you both one final question about the future.

　　Gianna Bern, is — does the trajectory²⁵ that you see here, with the upheaval, with the disruptions, does it change the path that Iraq was on to greater — even greater oil production? There were high hopes and high numbers attached to the potential for the future.

　　GIANNA BERN: I think, for the moment, it definitely brings that back into question, as to how much they can really increase, given the current — the current dynamics²⁶ in the country and the instability.

　　So, yes, I think it will we all have to ask, where do they go from here? And are they able to increase production, hold it steady? And I think, if they were able to hold it steady, it would actually be — that may be as good as we could hope for the moment.

　　GWEN IFILL: Greg Priddy, is there a long-term concern, in addition to this short-term upheaval?

　　GREG PRIDDY: Well, I think there's definitely kind of a little bit of a chilling impact on the willingness of companies to go into Southern Iraq, but the security situation there, we don't think it's going to be prohibitive.

　　Not only do we think that the oil is not going to go offline immediately as a disruption event, but there's still going to be ongoing²⁷ activity there. So, LUKoil, for example, is bringing on a lot of new production at West Qurna-2 in the south this year.

　　And I think production, if there's not a big disruption event, production actually could end the year up, and you could see a little bit of growth in the next few years, at least not anywhere as close what the government of Iraq is projecting.

　　GWEN IFILL: So, we will watching this on several different fronts.

　　Greg Priddy of Eurasia Group and Gianna Bern of the Brookshire Advisory and Research, thank you both very much.

　　GREG PRIDDY: Thank you.

1 refinery   

n.精炼厂，提炼厂

参考例句：

• They built a sugar refinery.他们建起了一座榨糖厂。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

2 valiant   

adj.勇敢的，英勇的；n.勇士，勇敢的人

参考例句：

• He had the fame of being very valiant.他的勇敢是出名的。
• Despite valiant efforts by the finance minister,inflation rose to 36%.尽管财政部部长采取了一系列果决措施，通货膨胀率还是涨到了36%。

3 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

4 scattered   

adj.分散的，稀疏的；散步的；疏疏落落的

参考例句：

• Gathering up his scattered papers,he pushed them into his case.他把散乱的文件收拾起来，塞进文件夹里。

5 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

6 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

7 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

8 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

9 advisory   

adj.劝告的，忠告的，顾问的，提供咨询

参考例句：

• I have worked in an advisory capacity with many hospitals.我曾在多家医院做过顾问工作。
• He was appointed to the advisory committee last month.他上个月获任命为顾问委员会委员。

10 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

11 overestimated   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They overestimated his ability when they promoted him. 他们提拔他的时候高估了他的能力。
• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。

12 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

13 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

14 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

15 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

16 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

17 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

18 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。

19 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

20 insurgence   

n.起义；造反；暴动；叛乱

参考例句：

• US troops moved into the Afghan mountains in an offensive to stop Taliban insurgence. 美军日前进军阿富汗山区阻止塔利班组织的一次暴动。 来自互联网

21 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

22 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

23 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

24 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

25 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

26 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

27 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。