Step by Step 3000 第1册 Unit11:Visions of the Future(3)

 　　Part 3. Predictions on tomorrow.

　　A. Keywords. responsibility, computers, brain activity.

　　Vocabulary. impose, diagnosis¹, scalp.

　　You are going to hear some predictions on the future.

　　Listen carefully and supply the missing words.

　　1. Your 21th century future.

　　The future will not determine itself, the future is determined² by the actions of the present day.

　　Edward Cornish, the editor of the Futurist magazine, published by the World Future Society, says:

　　"The responsibility we have for the future begins when we recognize that we are ourselves create the future.

　　That the future is not something imposed upon us by fate or other forces beyond our control."

　　2. Your 21st century doctor

　　More and more doctors will use computers for medical diagnosis and treatment.

　　You will visit your doctor and find that he uses a computer screen and vision information about your condition instead of his textbooks.

　　Computers in your home will enable you to answer interactive³ questions about your health and show the alternative results which will affect you if you act in a certain way.

　　3. Your 21st century brain

　　Your brainwaves maybe used to check out whether you're busy, tired or doing your work properly.

　　Psychologist Arthur F.Kramer, at the university of Illinois, tested volunteers working on arithmetic problems.

　　He found that he could predict their performance from the strength of the brain's electrical activity.

　　This is measured through the scalp.

　　The future? Bosses could measure brain activity through the scalp and tell whether a worker is performing well, working hard, or too tired to do the job properly.

　　Ongoing⁴ computer analysis could tell whether a worker such as an air traffic controller is seeing all the activity they have to monitor clearly enough.

　　B. Keywords. tourism, forecast, tourist arrivals.

　　Vocabulary. long-haul, World Tourism Organization (WTO).

　　You are going to hear some information about world tourism.

　　And complete the following information according to what you hear on the tape.

　　WTO, long-term forecast tourism 2020 vision.

　　Tourism 2020 vision is the World Tourism Organization's long-term forecast and assessment⁵ of the development of tourism up to the first 20 years of the new millennium⁶.

　　WTO's tourism 2020 vision forecast the international arrivals are expected to reach over 1.56 billion by the year 2020.

　　Of these worldwide arrivals in 2020, 1.18 billion will be intraregional, and 0.38 billion will be long-haul travellers.

　　The total tourist arrivals by region shows by 2020, the top three receiving regions will be Europe (717 million tourists), East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) and the Americas (282 million).

　　Followed by Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

　　East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecasted to record growth at a rate of over 5% per year, compared to the world average of 4.1%.

　　Europe will maintain the highest percentage of world arrivals, although there will be a decline from 60% in 1995 to 46% in 2020.

　　By 2010, the Americas will lose its NO.2 position to the East Asia and the Pacific region which will receive 25% of world arrivals in 2020 with the Americas decreasing from 19% in 1995 to 18 percent in 2020.

1 diagnosis   

n.诊断，诊断结果，调查分析，判断

参考例句：

• His symptoms gave no obvious pointer to a possible diagnosis.他的症状无法作出明确的诊断。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做一次彻底的调查分析。

2 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

3 interactive   

adj.相互作用的，互相影响的，（电脑）交互的

参考例句：

• The psychotherapy is carried out in small interactive groups.这种心理治疗是在互动的小组之间进行的。
• This will make videogames more interactive than ever.这将使电子游戏的互动性更胜以往。

4 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

5 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

6 millennium   

n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世

参考例句：

• The whole world was counting down to the new millennium.全世界都在倒计时迎接新千年的到来。
• We waited as the clock ticked away the last few seconds of the old millennium.我们静候着时钟滴答走过千年的最后几秒钟。