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The Paris-based Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) published a grim assessment¹ Thursday of the United States economy, saying it was close to recession. However, the OECD suggested European economies will likely fare better this year.

设在巴黎的经济发展与合作组织星期四对美国经济发表了一份悲观的评估报告，认为美国经济濒临衰退的边缘。但是该组织估计今年欧洲国家的经济状况很可能有所改善。

The OECD downgraded its estimates for U.S. growth to just 0.1 percent for the first quarter of this year. Overall, the organization predicted the American economy would grow just 1.4 percent in 2008, far below its previous estimate in December of a two percent growth.

经济发展与合作组织估计，美国经济今年第一季度的增长率仅为0.1%。该组织预计，2008年美国经济的全年增长率为1.4%，大大低于去年12月作出的2%的预测。

The OECD is an international economic research organization based in Paris.

经济发展与合作组织是设在巴黎的国际经济研究机构。

OECD chief economist² Jorgen Elmeskov says it might be premature³ to declare a recession in the United States. But at a press conference in Paris, Elmeskov said the U.S. economy would be extremely weak for at least the first half of this year, hampered⁴ by a credit crunch⁵ and the collapse⁶ of the U.S. housing market.

该组织首席经济学家埃尔姆斯克夫说，现在就认为美国进入经济衰退还为时过早，但是他在巴黎举行的一次记者会上说，美国经济在信贷紧缩和住房市场崩溃的影响下，至少在今年上半年将极其衰弱。

"It's hard to say how far advanced we are in the U.S. housing construction adjustments," he explained. "The share of GDP housing construction is probably down now to around somewhere like 3.8 percent of GDP. Which correspondents to the average level in previous slumps⁸. But it is clear that this slump⁷ has got further to go. There are no signs from any indicator⁹ of construction activity that things are about to change."

埃尔姆斯克夫说：“还很难说美国住房建设调整究竟取得了多少进展。住房建设在美国国内生产总值中所占比例现在可能下降到3.8%左右，这和以前几次房市暴跌的平均水平相符。但是显然这次暴跌还有进一步向下的趋势，任何有关住房建设的指数都没有显示有出现转机的迹象。”

The OECD said the so-called euro-zone economies - those European Union economies using the euro as their currency - have brighter prospects¹⁰, and kept the prediction of 1.5 percent growth unchanged.

经济发展与合作组织表示，所谓欧元区经济体，也就是那些使用欧元的欧盟成员经济体的经济前景却比较光明，这些经济体的增长率仍然保持在原先做出的1.5%的水平。

While a strong euro makes European exports more expensive, it also makes the price of oil cheaper. Still, the organization has raised alarm about possible inflation for the euro-area.

虽然欧元强劲使得欧洲出口商品的价格更加昂贵，但是同时也导致石油价格变得低廉，但是经济发展与合作组织依然对欧元区可能发生的通货膨胀做出警告。

The OECD also issued a somewhat downbeat prognosis for Japan, predicting only a 1.5 percent growth rate for 2008, down from its earlier prediction of 1.6 percent growth.

该组织还对日本的经济前景发表了比较悲观的预测，认为日本2008年的经济增长率仅为1.5%，低于先前预测的1.6%。