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发展中国家肉类消费量猛增

As the world population rises, the demand for meat, eggs and airy products is soaring in developing countries. The Worldwatch Institute warns that without safeguards the demand could strain the environment and pose public health risks.

随着世界人口的增长，发展中国家对肉类、蛋以及奶制品的需求激增。世界观察研究所警告说，没有安全保障，这种需求将会妨碍发展，并带来公共健康危机。

Worldwatch says both production and consumption of animal products are increasingly concentrated in developing countries. In fact, it says, the demand in those countries has increased at what it calls a staggering rate in recent decades.

世界观察说，发展中国家的肉类需求最近几十年来迅猛增加。

“Over the last 30 years, the number of farm animals – and that includes both four-footed livestock¹ like cattle and pigs and goats and sheep, as well as poultry² – has increased about 23 percent since 1980. So now we have about 20 billion farm animals worldwide and again that includes chickens and pigs and cattle, sheep and goats,” said Danielle Nierenberg, director of the institute’s Nourishing the Planet project and co-author of the report on farm animal populations.

世界观察研究所营养地球项目的主任涅伦伯格说：“在最近这30年中，家畜的数量，包括猪狗牛羊等大型家畜和鸡鸭等禽类的需求自1980年以来增长了大约23%。”

She said there are two main reasons for the increase.

她说家畜的增加有两个原因：

“Urbanization and rising incomes particularly in developing and emerging countries. China, Brazil, India – they’ve all seen their middle class or consumer class rise over the last 30 years. And what tends to happen when people have a little bit more money to spend is they spend it on higher quality food. They tend to buy more milk or cheese or meat,” she said.

“发展中国家的城市化和收入的增加，以及世界新兴经济体中国、巴西、印度等，都在过去30年中涌现出越来越多的中产阶级或称消费阶层。一般来说，人们有了更多的钱，首先就是花在更高质量的食品上面。人们就开始购买更多的牛奶、奶酪或肉类制品。”

Large-scale production

Farm animal production, she said, provides a “safety net” for millions of vulnerable people. However, she says that production often takes place on factory farms, or CAFOs, concentrated animal feed operations.

不过她说，这些肉类产品往往来自机械化养殖场，或称为动物集中饲养场。

“The demand is being met by industrial animal operations or factory farming. This is a style of farming that really originated in Europe and the United States in the 1950s and 60s, where thousands or even tens of thousands of the animals are confined in huge barns or sheds,” she said.

她说：“这种需求由家畜集中饲养场来满足。这种方式在上个世纪五、六十年代的欧洲和美国得到了真正有组织的发展，数以千计甚至数以万计的家畜集中在大型农场。”

She said this type of mass animal production can need a lot of resources or inputs³ to operate.

她说这种大型家畜饲养和生产可能会消耗大量资源：

“They require a lot of fossil fuel energy for heating and cooling. They require tremendous amounts of soy and corn for animal feed. They depend on antibiotics⁴ to keep these animals healthy because again they’re in really confined, crowded, often dirty conditions and so animals tend to get sick when they’re altogether without fresh air like that,” Nierenberg said.

“这种饲养方式需要很多化石燃料能源，需要大量的土地来生产玉米做饲料。这种饲养方式依赖抗菌素来保证家畜家禽不生病，因为这些家畜和禽类真的很集中，限制在养殖车间，有些情况下环境还十分肮脏，因此这些食用动物在拥挤又得不到新鲜空气的情况下，很容易生病。”

The Worldwatch Institute report says factory farms produce huge amounts of waste, which can contaminate ground water. And it says farm animal production accounts for about 18 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions⁵, especially methane⁶ and nitrous oxide⁷.

世界观察研究所的报告说，机械化养殖会产生大量废物，会导致地下水受到污染。报告说，家畜家禽制品占世界温室气体排放的18%，特别是甲烷和一氧化二氮的生成方面。

Health concerns

There’s also concern that such farming practices will lead to the extinction⁸ of indigenous⁹ cattle breeds, as production centers on just a few breeds like the Holstein and Jersey¹⁰. But the indigenous breeds may be more tolerant of heat and drought and less susceptible¹¹ to climate change.

还有人担心这种养殖行为将导致原生态牲畜的消失，因为饲养场仅饲养个别品种的牲畜，而原生态中的牲畜有些更能忍受酷热和干旱，不容易受到气候变化带来的影响。

Nierenberg said the increase in meat consumption in developing countries is understandable.

涅伦伯格说，发展中国家肉类消费不断增长是可以理解的。

“In the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, meat can be a tremendous boost to people’s diets. It can provide important nutrients¹² that they weren’t getting before, especially for malnourished populations; and it can really help people, especially children, develop better. But what we’re seeing not just in the industrial world but also in developing countries is over-consumption of meat. Because it’s cheaper than it’s ever been more and more people can consume it,” she said.

她说：“在发展中国家，特别是撒哈拉以南的非洲国家，肉类食品在人们的饮食中急剧增加。肉类食品可以提供他们以前得不到的重要营养，特别是对营养不良的人口更是如此，肉类食品还可以帮助人们，特别是儿童良好发育、健康成长。但是我们所看到的情况是，不仅工业化国家，而且发展中国家也都过量食用肉类。因为肉类价格比从前便宜，越来越多的人消费得起了。”

People in developed nations continue to eat the most animal products. But the report says the “appetite for animal products is stagnating¹³ or declining in many industrial countries.” It attributes that to a growing awareness¹⁴ that diets high in animal fat and meat may contribute to obesity¹⁵, diabetes¹⁶, cardiovascular disease and some types of cancer. For example a recent study in the Archives of Internal Medicine, concluded that red meat consumption is associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The study said other healthy protein sources are associated with a lower mortality risk.

发达国家的人们仍然是消费肉类食品最多的，但是这篇报告说，工业化国家的人口对动物制品的需求趋于平缓或正在下降，这种趋势的形成是因为人们越来越清楚地认识到，食物中过高的动物脂肪和肉类可能会导致肥胖症、糖尿病、心血管病以及某种癌症。例如最近《内科档案》就得出结论说，红肉的消费和心血管病、癌症风险的增加是有关的。这项研究表明，其他健康的蛋白质来源和较低的致死风险相关。

Some critics of the study say the growing health problems in developed nations have less to do with meat and more to do with a large consumption of sugar.

对这一报告持批评态度的人士说，发达国家中越来越多的健康问题和吃肉没有太大关系，主要是大量吃糖带来的后果。

The co-author of the Worldwatch Institute report has called for a rethinking of meat consumption. That is, eating it just a few times week instead of several times a day; and making meat a part of the meal, not always the main course.

世界观察研究所的报告的联合撰写人涅伦伯格呼吁重新思考肉类食品的消费，也就是说，每周只吃几次肉食，而不是每天吃几次。让肉食成为饮食的一部分，并不一定总是要让肉类成为主菜。

“Agriculture is not just about increasing meals. It’s about creating a system that nourishes both people and the planet. That helps communities earn enough incomes so that they can both grow food and buy food. It’s a system of agriculture that doesn’t depend on industrial inputs or harming animals. It’s a system of agriculture that’s really more holistic,” she said.

她说：“发展农业不仅仅是增加食品，而是应该创造一个能够滋补人类和地球的系统。这样才能帮助周围的人们得到足够的收入，以便他们可以生产食品并购买食品。这个农业体系不依赖工业，不依赖家畜，而是建立一个真正的、更加完全的农业体系。”

Investments in agriculture have increased since the food crisis of 2007/2008. The world population is expected to rise from the current seven billion to nine billion by 2050.

在农业方面的投资自从2007和2008年的食品危机以来有所增加。预计到2050年，世界人口会从目前的70亿增长到90亿。