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IMF预测今年世界经济平均增长3.3%

The International Monetary¹ Fund has cut its outlook for global economic growth, saying the recovery is likely to be uneven². The global lending organization predicts overall growth will average 3.3 percent this year - down from its earlier forecast of 3.5 percent. The revised outlook comes as member nations gather in Washington for the annual IMF-World Bank Meetings.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）对全球经济增长前景进行展望 ，称经济复苏的速度可能不均匀。国际货币基金组织预测，今年的世界经济平均增长率将为3.3％，低于其早先预测的3.5％。

The rise of emerging economies, a stagnant³ Europe and the plight⁴ of the world's poor takes center stage as international and financial policy leaders meet in Washington.

国际政策和金融政策领导人在华盛顿开会的重要议题是新兴经济体，一个金融停滞的欧洲，以及世界上穷人的困境。

While economic growth continues at a healthy pace in developing nations, advanced economies are facing a bumpy⁵ road to recovery, says IMF Chief Economist⁶ Olivier Blanchard.

IMF首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德说，尽管在发展中国家经济增长仍然迈着健康的步伐，但是发达经济体却正面临着坎坷的复苏之路。

"I think the main challenge is still very much, in Europe," said Blanchard. "The U.S. is doing better, emerging markets are doing fairly well, Europe is still the issue.

“我认为，主要的挑战仍然在欧洲。美国有进步，新兴市场都做得相当不错。但欧洲仍然是个问题。”

The IMF says ongoing⁷ debt problems in the region and the recent banking⁸ crisis in Cyprus are likely to keep the 17-nation eurozone in a mild recession until at least next year.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）说，在欧洲地区持续的债务问题和塞浦路斯最近的金融危机很有可能导致欧元17国的经济不景气，而这种情况至少会持续至明年。

In contrast, China is forecast to grow eight percent this year with developing economies following close behind. Blanchard says that doesn't mean emerging economies are immune, especially those that depend on exports.

相比之下，中国经济今年预计将增长8％，其他一些新兴经济体紧随其后。布兰查德说，这并不意味着新兴经济体将不会受到影响，尤其是那些依赖出口的国家。

"The main challenge for them is to deal with what's happening in advanced countries," he said. "And what this means is fluctuations⁹ in trade, capital markets - very volatile¹⁰, capital flows coming to them. They basically have to handle the capital flows, they have to maintain activity, avoid overheating.

“这些新兴经济体面临的主要挑战是对先进国家发生的事件作出应对。而这就意味着贸易和资本市场的波动 。当资本流向他们时，其波动是非常大的。基本上来说，他们需要处理资金的流向，维持资金活动，避免市场过热。”

For the world's largest economy, the outlook is for a slow but steady recovery.

美国作为世界上最大的经济体，其前景是缓慢而稳定的复苏。

Despite government spending cuts in the U.S. earlier this year, Blanchard says several factors should lead to stronger growth in 2014.

今年早些时候美国政府削减了开支，布兰查德说，仍有多个因素会引领美国经济在2014年的强劲增长。

"The first one is very strong monetary policy, which makes the [interest] rates very low," said Blanchard. "The second is a banking system which is not yet in perfect shape but is much stronger than it used to be. And then the third is this thing economists¹¹ call, pent-up demand.

“第一个因素是其非常强劲的货币政策，这使得利率非常低，第二个是其银行体系，虽仍不完美，但比之前已经好很多了。然后第三个是经济学家们所说的‘被压抑的需求’。”

Despite what he calls a three-speed global recovery, Blanchard says the world's economy is only as strong as its weakest link.

布兰查德说，尽管有全球经济“三速”复苏这一说法，但世界经济的强大只取决于其最薄弱的环节。

Later in the week - the World Bank addresses one of the biggest challenges to global growth - unemployment.

在本周晚些时候，世界银行将谈论全球经济增长面临的最大挑战之一，那就是失业。