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奥巴马重新思考对叙利亚内战的政策

The Obama administration appears to be rethinking options regarding the civil war in Syria following a deadlock¹ in peace talks, the rapidly growing death toll², and the expansion of the massive humanitarian³ crisis.

叙利亚和平会谈陷入僵局，死亡人数不断攀升、大规模人道灾难扩大，奥巴马政府看来正在重新思考对叙利亚内战的对策 。

The bombings in Syria continue.

叙利亚的战斗仍在继续。

The civil war is grinding into its third year.

内战已经进入第三年。阿萨德政府的温和派反对势力正在减弱。

The moderate opposition⁴ to the Assad government is weaker.

布鲁金斯学会的奥汉隆说，

“What has happened is that Assad and Hezbollah are winning and the al-Qaida affiliates⁵ are becoming stronger within the insurgency," said Michael O’Hanlon, who is with the Brookings Institution. "So our current policy is failing to prevent the very outcomes that we most fear.”

“现在阿萨德和真主党正在取胜，基地组织分支机构通过暴动变得强大。所以，我们现有的政策没能阻止我们最害怕的结果产生。”

Analysts⁷ say the strength of groups inspired by al-Qaida is actually helping⁸ Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who calls all the rebels terrorists.

分析人士说，受基地组织影响的集团的势力其实正在帮助叙利亚总统阿萨德，阿萨德将所有反抗者都称为恐怖分子。

“The narrative⁹ that is prevailing¹⁰ today is that this is a fight between the Assad regime and al-Qaida," said Mideast analyst⁶ David Schenker, a Middle East analyst at The Washington Institute.  "And therefore the United States, the Obama administration, has taken this ambivalent¹¹ position.”

申科尔是华盛顿研究所的一位中东问题分析员。他说：“现在盛行的说法是，这是阿萨德政权和基地组织之间的斗争。因此，美国和奥巴马政权采取了这个矛盾的立场。”

The conflict has killed more than 135,000 people and has driven more than nine million from their homes.

这场冲突已经造成至少13万5千平民死亡，使900多万人流离失所。

The U.S. hoped the peace talks in Geneva would bring a breakthrough, but the latest round ended in deadlock.

美国希望日内瓦和谈能够带来突破。但是最近一轮和谈以僵局告终。

"It is very clear that Bashar al-Assad is continuing to try to win this in the battlefield rather than to come to the negotiating table in good faith," said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

美国国务卿克里说：“很明显，阿萨德继续试图在战场上赢得这场战争，而不是带着诚意来到谈判桌前。”

Syrian military pilots are dropping barrel bombs on civilian¹² populations. This has so terrified people in recent weeks that a half-million have fled their neighborhoods.

叙利亚空军向贫民投下桶装炸弹。近几个星期来，人民因此惊恐万分，50万人逃离家园。

Analysts say the Obama administration could provide intelligence on the pilots to help the rebels stop the carnage.

分析人士说，奥巴马可以向反抗者提供飞行员的情报，以阻止大屠杀。

“We don’t see so many fixed¹³ wing aircraft flying around Syria anymore because most of the pilots have defected," said David Schenker. "We have got to work on this with the remaining helicopter pilots either by convincing them to leave or by helping the rebels to better target them.”

申科尔说：“我们在叙利亚再也看不到许多固定翼飞机了，因为大多数飞行员都叛逃了。我们应该在剩下的直升机飞行员这方面继续做工作——或者劝说他们离开，或者帮助反抗者更准确地瞄准直升机。”

Analysts also say the U.S. and its allies can still build the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA) into an effective force.

分析人士说，美国及其盟友仍然可以将温和的自由叙利亚军组建成一支有效的军队。

They say the FSA could be supplied with anti-tank weapons, better ammunition¹⁴ and cash to pay fighters.

他们说，自由叙利亚军应该配备反坦克武器，更好的弹药和雇佣士兵的现金。

The CIA could also expand its modest rebel training program in Jordan.

中央情报局也可以在约旦扩大它的温和反抗者训练项目。

However, officials say President Barack Obama remains¹⁵ skeptical¹⁶ about any step that could draw the U.S. into the war.

但是，官员说，奥巴马总统对任何可能将美国拖入战争的步骤持怀疑态度。

“History would suggest that Obama does not want to play any major role in this war," Michael O’Hanlon said. "And he prefers to ignore it for as long and as often and as much as he can.”

奥汉隆说： “以史为鉴，奥巴马不会想要在这场战争中扮演任何主要角色。而且他选择尽可能地忽视它。”

Short of military force, it's not clear how Washington can change the course of the war, in which Syria's government is supported by Iran and Russia.

叙利亚政府得到伊朗和俄罗斯支持；如果美国不使用军事力量，不清楚华盛顿将怎样改变这场战争的走向。