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战略考量影响希腊危机

When Greek and other European leaders came to the 17th hour of their all-night talks that culminated¹ in an agreement Monday morning, their immediate² concerns were economic. But experts say there were also serious strategic issues driving them toward the accord.

经过17小时的通宵谈判，希腊和其他欧洲领导人在星期一早上最终达成了一致。当前他们最关注的是经济问题。但有专家说，也有重要的战略考量在推动他们达成协定。

The leaders avoided the unprecedented³ removal of a country from the common euro currency, and possibly from the European Union — a result experts say would have had broader implications.

欧洲领导人避免了一个国家从欧元体系退出并可能从欧盟退出这一空前重大的事件发生。专家说假如这样的情况发生，将会有更深远的冲击。

“That would mean that the European Union is not only not an optimal⁴ currency union, something that economists⁵ have already stressed, but it’s also a very profoundly dysfunctional political project,” Aris Trantidis of the Department of Political Economy at London’s King’s College said.

国王学院政治经济学系的阿里斯·特兰提蒂斯说：“这将意味着欧盟不单单不是最佳的货币联盟，这是一些经济学家早已强调过的，而且它也是一个严重功能失调的政治项目。”

The accord will cause more hardship in Greece, but experts say an exit from the eurozone would have been worse - not only for the Greek people and Europe, but also in geopolitical terms, if Greece fell into economic depression and social unrest.

协定将会给希腊带来更多的苦日子，不过专家说，退出欧元区对希腊和欧洲来说更糟糕。如果希腊陷入经济萧条和社会动荡，在地缘政治方面也是一大灾难。

“What will happen within Greece, and also its geopolitical orientation⁶, if there is a catastrophic event of dramatic proportions that ‘Grexit’ might be?” asked Tranditis.

特兰提蒂斯说：“如果‘希腊退出’这场灾难性的大戏真的上演了，希腊内部将会发生什么？其地缘政治方向又将如何？”

Russia factor

Already, the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has made conciliatory moves toward Russia. And Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly tried to convince him to veto the renewal⁷ of European Union sanctions imposed on Russia for its involvement in Ukraine.

希腊新总理已经迈出与俄罗斯寻求和解的步子。据报道，俄罗斯总统试图说服希腊总理否决欧盟延长因干涉乌克兰而对俄的制裁。

The new Greek defense⁸ minister also participated in a Moscow conference with his counterparts from Iran and North Korea.

希腊新任国防部长甚至和来自伊朗和朝鲜的同行一道在莫斯科参加了一次会议。

There undoubtedly⁹ was great concern about this evolving relationship, Sarah Lain of the Royal United Services Institute says.

“It is absolutely causing alarm bells in Europe, but it’s more, I think, symbolic¹⁰ in nature rather than any further, sort of, strategic partnership¹¹, for now,” she said.

皇家联合军种研究所的萨拉·莱恩说：“它将绝对导致欧洲敲响警钟，但我认为，就目前而言，这些动作更多的是象征意义而不是某种战略伙伴关系。”

But analysts¹² like Lain, who spoke¹³ to VOA via Skype, point out that while a difficult deal with the EU can have a positive long-term impact, Greece can’t rely on Russia for much help, as it struggles with its own economic problems.

她还分析指出，同欧盟达成协议固然对希腊来说并不轻松，但长远而言，可能有积极作用，而俄罗斯还在为自己的经济问题焦头烂额，希腊不可能依靠俄罗斯的帮助。

Transditis says it would take a lot of upheaval¹⁴ for Greeks to look to the East for their future, rather than the West.

分析人士还说，如果希腊人为了未来向东方而不是西方的话，还会有很多动荡发生。

“Russia might be a profitable commercial partner, but it’s not the model that Greece should follow,” he said.

特兰提蒂斯说：“俄罗斯也许是一个有利可图的商业伙伴，可它的模式不是希腊应该效仿的。”

And experts say that broader concern led key non-eurozone Western powers, like the United States and Britain, to push for a settlement and avoid the possibility that a financial dispute could lead to a geopolitical shift.

专家们说，更为广泛的担忧致使美英等非欧元区西方大国推动希腊跟欧盟达成解决方案，并避免一场财务纠纷可能导致地缘政治转变。