英伦广角 2009-06-14 英经济衰退近尾声？（在线收听）

No. You are not dreaming. Industry is looking better. House prices are on the up. And we are spending more on our high streets. The recession may be far from over, but it is the economic tone changing. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research say it is. Our economy has been shrinking for the last 18 months. They say it started to grow again.

"The reason for the recovery in April and in May may be simply that firms have stopped reducing stock levels. If consumption and investment are still falling, then we may see some stabilization followed by a further fall."

If those academics have got their sums right, GDP hit its lowest point in March this year, but increased by 0.2% in April and by a further 0.1% in May. These are tiny increases based on projected figures in unprecedented conditions. But when the economy is this fragile, even the smallest signal could be telling. These figures won’t be firmed up until the end of July, but they could have a significant political impact.

"The risk is clearly the double U-shape, the double-dip recession, which is exactly what we saw in the stocks of the 1980s, the last time we saw such a sharp fallback in manufacturing output."

Alistair Darling’s budget was lambasted as being wildly optimistic when it came to forecasting how our economy will grow. But according to this latest school of thought, the Chancellor’s numbers may yet add up.

Ursula Errington, Sky News.