North Korean media says leader Kim Jong Il has toured the northeast province where Pyongyang says it plans to launch a satellite soon. South Korean leaders are deeply concerned about the looming launch.
北韩媒体说，北韩领导人金正日参观了东北一个省份，平壤说北韩计划不久将在那里发射一颗卫星。 韩国领导人对北韩似乎要发射一事感到十分关切。
The North's official Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday that leader Kim Jong Il has been touring the country's northeastern North Hamgyong province. It is the birthplace of his mother - and the site of an increasingly likely launch of a long-range rocket.
北韩的官方朝中社报道说，星期三北韩领导人金正日参观了处于东北部的咸镜北道，这里是他母亲的诞生地，也是越来越有可能发射一枚远程火箭的地点。
North Korea announced Tuesday it planned to launch a "communications satellite" from its most advanced facility, at Musudan-ri in North Hamkyong. South Korean and American defense officials suspect Pyongyang's rhetoric about space research is a cover for a test of a ballistic missile capable, in theory, of reaching U.S. territory.
北韩星期二宣布计划在具有其最先进设施的咸镜北道的舞水端里发射一颗通讯卫星。韩国和美国国防官员怀疑，北韩所说的太空探索是为了掩盖测试它弹道导弹的能力从理论上来讲是否可以达到美国领土。
Joseph Bermudez, a senior analyst for the Jane's Defence Group, is one of the world's top analysts on North Korea's ballistic missiles. He says satellite images have shown stepped up activity near the possible launch site. However, he says, so far, North Korea seems not yet to have erected the missile and the necessary support structure needed for a launch.
乔瑟夫·贝穆德斯是简氏防卫集团的资深分析家，他是世界上对北韩弹道导弹最有研究的分析家之一。他说，卫星图像已经显示在可能的发射场地附近出现了更多的活动。不过他说，到目前为止，北韩看来还没有竖立起导弹，也还没有搭建起导弹发射所需的支架。
"Once we see a system placed upon a launch pad... then we know that we can say it is imminent. Now, in this case 'imminent' could be anywhere up to 21 days, you know, three weeks," said Bermudez.
“一旦我们看到在发射场地搭建起设施，我们就能了解发射迫在眉睫了。目前说即将可能发射意味着大约21天，三个星期的时间。”
North Korea's last test of a long-range missile was in 2006, sparking United Nations sanctions and a resolution calling for no further missile launches.
上次北韩试射远程导弹是在2006年，导致联合国采取了制裁行动并在决议案中呼吁北韩不要再进行导弹发射。
South Korea has repeatedly warned the launch of a missile would violate that resolution and likely trigger even more sanctions. Bermudez says North Korea's description of the launch as an exercise in space research could complicate the international community's response.
韩国已经多次警告说，发射导弹可能会违反联合国决议案，并可能引发更严厉的制裁。贝穆德斯说，北韩说这次发射是太空探索，这可能会搞乱国际社会的反应。
"It would be difficult to say that one nation does not have the right to explore space, and that others do... Once you clear a certain altitude, you are not longer in international airspace. You're in space, which no one has rights over," he said.
“很难说一个国家不应该有探索太空的权利，而其它国家可以。一旦你达到了一定的高度以后，你就不再受国际空间的限制了，你进入了太空，那里是没有任何国家有管理权的。”
Bermudez says it will be difficult to know North Korea's intention until the launch.
贝穆德斯说，在北韩发射之前很难知道北韩的真正用心。
"Ballistic missiles and space-launch vehicles actually travel on different trajectories. So, you would know, relatively quickly after launch, watching it, whether it is a space launch or a ballistic-missile test launch," he added.
“弹道导弹和太空设备实际上在不同轨道上，因此你可以在发射后，加以观察，看它是属于太空发射还是弹道导弹的试射，进而比较快地了解到真相。”
Analysts say the launch is likely to draw a firmer response if the rocket's passes over Japanese territory, as a North Korean medium-range missile test did in 1998.
分析人士说，北韩的发射如果越过日本上空，就一定会引来日本强硬的反应，就像北韩1998年发射一颗中程导弹那次一样。 |