This week marks the sixth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that deposed Saddam Hussein and established a fledgling democracy, but also unleashed political, ethnic and sectarian tensions that caused years of devastating violence. As the anniversary passes, Iraq seems to be emerging from the worst of the bloodshed, and U.S. troops are preparing to leave, but some experts caution against declaring victory just yet.
这个星期标志着美国为首的联军进攻伊拉克六周年，美军在当地推翻独裁者萨达姆·候赛因，建立新生的民主制度，但也引发政治、族群以及教派间的紧张，导致六年来暴力攻击不断发生。随着六周年的到来，伊拉克似乎已经从最严重的流血冲突中走出来，美国军队也准备撤离，但专家警告目前宣告战争胜利还言之过早。
These days, nearly all the headlines coming out of Iraq are positive, military, police and civilian casualties all down, the economy improving, preparations for another round of elections proceeding well, and U.S. troops preparing to scale back their role and fully withdraw within three years.
最近以来，从伊拉克传来的消息几乎都是正面的，军队、警察以及民众的伤亡都在减少，经济改善了，新一轮选举的准备工作也进展顺利，美国军队准备缩减规模，在三年内完全撤离伊拉克。
"We are close to sustainable security, but we're not there yet," said Lieutenant General Lloyd Austin, the number two U.S. commander in Iraq. He says U.S. troops will continue to train Iraqi forces, and provide them with air support and other capabilities they don't have. But the emphasis now is on long-term security provided by the Iraqis themselves.
美国驻伊拉克第二号指挥官奥斯汀中将说：“我们已经接近可持续安全，但还没有完全达到那个地步。”奥斯汀中将说，美国军队将继续培训伊拉克军队，提供空中援助和其他伊拉克军队仍不具备的能力。但现在的重点是，伊拉克军队必须能维护自身长期的安全。
"I think sustainable security looks a lot like the Iraqi security forces having the capability and the capacity to do this for themselves in the future. We will be here to mentor them, to provide them enablers where required, and so yes, I am confident that we can get the job done," he said.
他说，“我认为长久安全就是伊拉克安全部队有能力在未来保护自己的安全，我们会在这里协助他们，提供需要的辅助人员，我有信心我们可以完成这项任务。”
In fact, that is what President Obama ordered last month when he announced that U.S. combat troops will leave Iraq by August of next year, to be followed by a full U.S. withdrawal by the end of the following year. The president said by then, U.S. goals in Iraq should have been achieved.
事实上，这也是上个月美国总统奥巴马宣布美国作战部队将在明年八月离开伊拉克、所有美国军队在2011年全面撤离时所下的命令。奥巴马总统说，到那个时候，美国应该实现所有在伊拉克的目标。
"This strategy is grounded in a clear and achievable goal shared by the Iraqi people and the American people: an Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and self-reliant," he said.
奥巴马总统说，“这个策略是建立在伊拉克与美国共享的一个明确而且能够实现的目标之上，那就是一个自主稳定、能够自立的伊拉克。”
There has been a lot of progress in Iraq during the last two years, due mainly to the surge of U.S. forces, a new counterinsurgency approach and improvements in Iraq's government and security forces. But some analysts, including former State Department official Wayne White, now of the Middle East Institute, say it is too soon to declare victory, and the road out of Iraq may be as difficult as the war's early years were.
过去两年来伊拉克取得了许多进展。主要归功于美军的强力打击，新的打击叛军战略以及伊拉克政府和安全部队的进步。但是包括前国务院官员、现任中东研究所研究员怀特在内的一些分析人士说，现在宣布伊拉克战争胜利还为时过早。怀特说，撤离伊拉克的道路也许和战争初期一样艰难。
"There are a tremendous amount of unknowns," he said. "And too many people are simply acting as if it's over or we won or are successful, when we've got a lot of bridges to cross. I see trouble. In question is to what degree will we see trouble. Will we see violence that is so significant that it can not be contained by national police and Iraqi army forces, and requires U.S. intervention?"
他说，“伊拉克还存在许多不确定性，许多人觉得战争已经结束，或者我们已经取得胜利，但实际上我们还有许多艰难的路要走。我看到还有麻烦，问题是麻烦究竟有多大，我们是否会看到暴力攻击太过猖獗，让伊拉克部队无法压制，必须依赖美国的干预?”
White is not confident that Iraq's security forces will be ready to take full responsibility for their country's security in the coming years.
怀特对伊拉克部队在未来接手自己国家的安全任务并没有太多信心。
"The mistake that people should not make is putting too much emphasis on the proficiency of Iraqi security forces. We did that, you know, back in '05, '06 and it got us nowhere," he said.
他说，“我们不该犯一种错误，就是过于强调伊拉克安全部队的能力，我们在2005，2006年时这么做，结果什么也没有达成。”
But another analyst believes the president's plan has a good chance of working.
但是，另一位分析人士认为，奥巴马总统的计划成功的机会很大。
"The good news is that the war is coming to an end. The kind of grassroots, bottom-up violence that we saw throughout '03, '04, '05, '06, '07, really has largely ended," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.
布鲁金斯研究所的欧汉伦说：“好消息是战争已经进入尾声，我们在2003年到2007年间看到的那种到处蔓延、自下而上的暴力攻击，已经基本结束了。”
O'Hanlon cautions against being too optimistic. But he also says another year-and-a-half of help from U.S. combat forces, and a further year-and-a-half with U.S. trainers and support troops, should give the Iraqis enough time to solve their remaining problems, including the growing Arab-Kurd dispute in the north and ongoing attacks by militant groups.
欧汉伦也警告不要太过乐观。但是他说，美国作战部队继续提供一年半的帮助，再加上美国支援部队和培训人员一年半的协助，应该能给伊拉克人足够时间解决他们现有的问题，包括北部地区阿拉伯和库尔德人的争议以及武装组织的持续攻击。
"I think there's a good chance, although I would want to keep, first of all, an open mind about a couple of things, starting with the fact that I'm very glad that after 18 more months we will still have 50,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and the concept of a gradual withdrawal will continue to be our guiding philosophy," he said.
他说，“我认为很有可能，首先，尽管我希望对某些事保持开放态度，我很高兴我们在18个月后仍然有五万名部队驻守伊拉克，而逐步撤军将继续是我们的指导方针。”
Pentagon officials are quick to say the progress in Iraq is still "fragile," although less fragile than a year ago. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says there are still problems to solve, and the "roots of democracy" in Iraq are still "relatively shallow." But he said Wednesday that after what he called six "difficult and painful" years, Iraqis can look forward to a better future.
五角大楼官员表示，伊拉克取得的进展比一年前要好，但还是非常脆弱。美国国防部长盖茨说，还有一些问题有待解决，而伊拉克民主扎根的工作，依据他的说法，仍然不够深厚。但是他星期三表示，在他所说的艰难困苦的六年后，伊拉克人终于可以展望更美好的未来。
"I believe that the Iraqi people today, with all that pain in the past, have a future that they have probably never had before. The prospects seem to get better every day that the Iraqis will solve these problems politically and not with guns. And that's a much different kind of life," Gates said.
盖茨说，“我相信今天的伊拉克人在经历了所有的痛苦后，终于拥有一个从来没有的未来，每一天的情势都在好转，伊拉克人将以政治，而不是以武力来解决这些问题。那是一种完全不同的生活。”
Secretary Gates says Iraqis elect their own government, their leaders respect the law, and the country has a chance for strong economic growth. As Iraq enters its seventh year of war, he predicted the country will emerge much better off by the time U.S. troops finish their scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2011, nearly nine years after they arrived.
盖茨部长表示，伊拉克人选举自己的政府，他们的领导人尊重法律，伊拉克有机会取得强有力的经济增长。在伊拉克进入战争第七年，他预计这个国家在2011年美军完全撤离时，也是美军进入伊拉克9年之后，将取得长足的进展。 |