A new report predicts developing Asia's economic growth will slow by almost half this year, but the Asian Development Bank forecasts that the region will rebound in 2010.
亚洲开发银行一个新的报告预计，亚洲发展中国家的经济增长速度今年将降低将近一半。但是亚银预测，亚洲地区经济将在2010年复兴。
Developing Asian economies are likely to grow by an average of 3.4 percent in 2009, a steep drop from last year's growth of 6.3 percent. The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday issued the revised outlook for the region, just a few months after it predicted average growth of more than five percent.
亚洲开发银行说，亚洲发展中国家的经济在2009年可能会以百分之3.4的平均速度增长。这比去年百分之6.3的增长率大为下降。亚银星期二发表对亚洲经济发展的修正后的报告。几个月之前，亚银曾预测亚洲增长率为百分之5以上。
Jong-Wha Lee is the ADB's acting chief economist. He says this year the region's economies will grow at the most sluggish pace since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. But, he says, now developing Asia is in a much better position to cope with tough times.
李钟和是亚银代理首席经济师。他说，今年亚洲各国的增长速度会很慢，将是10年前的亚洲金融风暴以来最低的。但是他说，现在发展中的亚洲面对艰难局势的能力比过去好很多。
Lee says large foreign currency reserves and steadily declining inflation rates help the region be more resilient. But, he says, Asia's current account surpluses have contributed to the world's economic woes.
李钟和说，庞大的外汇储备和通货膨胀稳步下降，有助于该地区的经济活力。但是他说，亚洲目前经常性账目的盈余是全世界经济陷入困境的一个原因。
"So it's Asia's excess savings and the current account surpluses in a way helped allow the United States to maintain excessive household consumption and huge current account deficits," he said.
他说：“因此，从某种意义上讲，亚洲过多的储蓄和经常性账目盈余，导致美国长期维持过高的家庭消费和巨额经常性账目赤字。”
Lee says Asia should use its own savings more efficiently and productively, rather than sending the surplus to U.S. markets. The large foreign currency reserves provide Asian governments with funds to boost their flagging economies.
李钟和说，亚洲应当更有效率、更有价值地利用自己的储蓄，而不是把自己的盈余送到美国市场去。巨额外汇储备为亚洲政府提供了资金，以振兴萎靡不振的经济。
Government stimulus measures are expected to help China's economy grow by seven percent this year, although that is well below the 10 percent growth seen in recent years. India's economy is expected to grow at five percent in 2009, also well down from the past few years.
预计，中国政府的刺激经济措施有助于中国经济今年增长百分之7，虽然这会远低于近年来保持的百分之10的增长率。印度经济2009年的增长率预计为百分之5，同样也远低于过去几年。
The ADB, a non-profit development lender, says Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to contract this year, as demand for exports dwindles.
Southeast Asia is expected to grow by less than one percent in 2009. The drop in exports particularly will hurt Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
预计，东南亚的经济增长率今年不到百分之1，出口下降特别会给马来西亚、新加坡和泰国造成伤害。
Central Asia may grow by about four percent in 2009 as oil prices remain more than 60 percent below last year's peak.
石油价格去年攀升至高点，但是由于目前油价比去年最高点下跌了百分之60以上，所以中亚今年的增长有可能在百分之4左右。
Lee says it is important for Asian countries to strengthen and increase domestic demand, in response to weakening external demand. "This is not really only for the short-term measures to help the Asian countries coming out of this current economic slowdown," said Lee, "but also it helps Asian countries build up its own strengths to make them more resilient to large, external shocks."
李钟和说，对亚洲国家来说，为了对付外需的下降，加强和提高国内需求至关重要。他说：“这不仅仅有助于亚洲国家走出目前经济放缓的短期措施，也能推动亚洲国家增强自身实力，使它们能够更坚强地回应大规模外界冲击。”
Lee says the short-term outlook is bleak as severe recession in industrialized economies hurts developing nations. But, if the global economy recovers slightly next year, developing Asia should see average growth of six percent in 2010.
李钟和说，由于发达经济体严重的衰退伤害了发展中国家，短期前景看来是严峻的。但是，如果全球经济明年能够出现一些复苏，亚洲发展中国家2010年的平均增长率就会达到百分之6。 |