Recent economic data from Asia continue to show big declines in key indicators. But some economists say there are hints of a recovery.
从亚洲各国传来的经济数据显示，关键指数均有大幅下跌。但是一些经济学家说，出现了一些复苏迹象。
Every economist in Asia has probably been asked this question: is the worst over yet? The numbers across the region are conflicting.
亚洲的每一名经济学家可能都被问过这个问题，最糟糕的阶段过去了没有？整个亚洲地区的经济数据相互矛盾。
There is bad news: Japan's economy contracted an annualized 15 percent rate in the first three months ending in March from the same period last year - its deepest fall in more than 50 years. Exports - a key component in the economy - shrank 26 percent.
从日本传来的是怀消息。日本经济今年头三个月跟去年同比收缩了百分之15，这是日本经济50多年来最深重的下跌。日本经济的关键行业出口业则收缩了百分之26。
But there are what some describe as "green shoots" of recovery. Consumer confidence in the world's second largest economy reached a 10-month high in April. Exports increased in March from February.
不过也有一些被形容为是“萌芽”的复苏迹象。日本这个世界第二大经济体的消费者信心4月份上升到10个月以来的高点，3月份的出口比2月份有所增长。
Kaoru Yosano, Japan's finance minister, looks forward. He says it seems the January to March period was the worst and that the economy is turning up a bit.
日本财务大臣与谢野馨展望前景时说：“看起来一到三月份是最糟糕的阶段，经济开始有了一些上行迹象。”
Elsewhere, officials say things are looking up too. Indonesia's president says recovery is in sight by next year, while Hong Kong's financial secretary expects a slight rebound in exports by the end of the year. Taiwan's president proclaimed the worst is over, although the economy is still in recession.
亚洲其他国家的官员也表示局面开始好转。印度尼西亚总统说，明年将看到复苏，与此同时，香港财政司长预计年底将看到出口有些许反弹。
Singapore's president warned of a worse year, with the economy contracting by between six to nine percent. However, on Thursday, Singapore's Trade Ministry said the decline in the island's gross domestic product - a measure of overall economic activity - slowed in the first three months of the year, compared with the previous quarter.
新加坡总统警告，这是最糟糕的年景，经济将收缩百分之6到百分之9。不过新加坡贸易部长星期四表示，标志着整体经济活动的国内生产总值今年头三个月与前一季度相比，下降速度放缓。
There are mixed signals too from one of few economies in the region that is not in recession - China. Retail sales in April rose 15 percent from last year. Authorities see this as proof that China's $586 billion economic stimulus package is working.
中国是亚洲地区没有陷入经济衰退的不多几个经济体之一，那里同样传来了混杂的信息。零售跟去年同比上升了百分之15，当局将此看作是中国5千8百60亿美元的经济刺激方案在起作用的明证。
But exports continue to plummet, dropping nearly 23 percent in April from the same month last year. Industrial output, a measure of factory production, fell more than seven percent, a bigger-than-expected decline.
但是出口继续下滑，4月份出口跟去年同比下降近百分之23。工业产出下降了百分之7以上，这个标志着工厂生产活动的指标数据跌幅比预期要大。
Xu Lin is director-general of fiscal and financial affairs at China's National Development and Reform Commission. He says the economy has shown signs of a rebound since November, as seen in electricity consumption figures - an indicator for industrial activity. He says the government's main concern now is to maintain this momentum.
中国国家发改委财政金融司司长徐林说，自从11月份以来，可以从表现工业活动的指数--电器消费数据上看，经济出现了反弹迹象。他说，政府现在主要关注的是如何保住这个势头。
"The current indicators have shown that the economic recovery is moving in a "V" shape. But some indicators may not support that. But we cannot say by the indicators in April that we can prove that the "V" shaped recovery has been changed to a different direction," he said. "But if there will be more indicators to show that the recovery is changing the direction, then maybe we have to take additional measures to further consolidate the "V" shape."
徐林说：“目前的指数显示，经济正在以V字形复苏。但是，有些数据也许并不支持这一点。可是我们不能根据4月份的数据说，我们能够证实V字形的经济复苏已经改变了方向。但是如果出现更多数据显示，经济复苏改变了方向，我们也许需要采取进一步措施来巩固经济的V字形复苏。”
A "V" shaped recovery is the best anyone can hope for - the economy bottoms out quickly and sharply recovers. However, economists also talk about a "U" shaped recovery, where there is a longer slump before a gradual upturn. Worse is the "L" shaped recovery - which means a sharp drop and then no real growth for a long time, or a "W" shaped recovery - when the economy starts to recover, then quickly falls back into recession.
V字型的复苏是一种最好的状况，因为经济在短时间之内触底，然后随即复苏。然而，经济学家同时也在谈论U字型复苏，也就是在经济谷底时间较长，而复苏的速度则比较缓慢。最糟糕的是L字型复苏，那表示经济直坠落地，并且长时间之内没有真正的成长。W字型复苏也很糟糕，这是当经济开始复苏的时后，又很快掉回衰退。
Alan Oster, group chief economist of the National Australia Bank, says a "W" recovery will be unlikely because of the massive amounts of government money pumped into the world's economies over the past year.
澳大利亚银行的首席经济学家艾伦.奥斯特说，不太可能出现W字型复苏，因为在过去一年政府对世界经济注入了大笔资金。
"You push a lot of money into economies - through interest rates and fiscal policies - I think the machine works. To get to "W" you need something else - you need an interest rate followed by an oil price shock, which is what the '80s were," said Oster. "You need to say to me something else is going to come along and clobber us."
他说：“通过调整利率和恰当使用会计政策，你向经济投放很多资金，我想这有用。要出现W字型复苏需要不同的条件，你需要利率随着石油价格震荡，就如1980年时一样。你需要告诉我还有其他的事物将来冲击我们。”
Governments in the region have been spending their way out of the crisis - handing out cash to citizens, building new highways, funding new programs, to revive business activity. Some countries, such as China, have indicated that they will take additional measures if their first stimulus efforts are inadequate.
在亚洲地区各国政府花费许多钱来脱离这场危机，包括发放现金、兴建新的高速公路、资助新的计划，来恢复商业活动。有些国家，例如中国，已经表明如果第一批的刺激力度不够的话，他们将会采取额外的措施。
"For the central government, I think we have enough resources to support the economy to move to the "V" shaped recovery," said Xu.
徐林说：“对于中央政府来讲，我想我们拥有足够的资源来支撑经济走向V字型复苏。”
No matter the shape of the recovery, economists say one thing is certain: when Asia passes the worst of the crisis, the economic landscape will have already changed. Asia's export-driven economies will have started to seek a less vulnerable growth model. Xu says, in the aftermath of the slump, China's exporters will face different business conditions, and the economy will have to rely more on domestic demand for growth.
不管是哪一种字型的复苏，经济学家说有一件事是确定的，就是当亚洲渡过了危机最糟糕的时刻，经济版图已经改变。亚洲出口导向的经济必将开始寻找不那么脆弱的成长模式。徐林说，衰退的后果就是，中国的出口商将面临不同的商业局面，而经济成长将必须更加仰赖国内需求。 |