[00:00.00]Lesson 28 Political Polls
[00:12.20]政治民意调意
[00:24.40]I. Text
[00:27.77]Many people closely follow the political polls
[00:34.43]during the final weeks preceding an important election.
[00:37.81]有许多人密切关注着此次重要选举前最后几周进行的民意调查。
[00:41.20]But how do these polls ac-tually work?
[00:44.02]但民意调查到底是怎么一回事呢？
[00:46.84]Polls are surveys of a relatively small number of peo-ple
[00:54.31]compared to the actual number who will vote.
[00:57.29]它是为了在最后投票前确定谁可能在选举中获胜
[01:00.26]They are an at-tempt to determine who may actually win an election
[01:08.21]in advance of the final vote.
[01:10.43]对与真正会参加投票的人相对而言的少数人进行的调查。
[01:12.65]Let's say 100 million people are expected to vote in the general election.
[01:17.13]比如说，预计有100万人会参加大选。
[01:21.61]If 100 people are asked for their opinions,
[01:27.98]each respondent represents a million voters.
[01:31.15]如果调查对象是100人的话，那么每个问卷回答者就代表一万选民。
[01:34.33]Obviously, the results of such a poll are not very reliable.
[01:38.46]显然这样的调查结果不会十分可靠。
[01:42.58]The more people are surveyed, the more meaningful are the results.
[01:46.55]参与调查的人越多，结果就越有意义。
[01:50.52]Pollsters have various ways of making their polls more accurate.
[01:54.31]民意测验专家用各种手段来提高测验结果的准确性。
[01:58.10]They try to find a representative variety of people to question.
[02:02.33]他们尽可能地寻找有代表性的人群测验。
[02:06.56]For example, they look for people with similar backgrounds
[02:13.83]and from similar regions to those fo all the voters.
[02:17.16]例如，参加测验的人与选民来自同一地区，有着相同的背景。
[02:20.49]Pollsters also ask questions that help determine how many people
[02:28.53]will actually vote for the candidate they support.
[02:31.47]测验专家还试图确定支持各个候选人的选民到底有多少会真正去投票。
[02:34.41]If a candidate has a higher percentage
[02:40.29]of enthusiastic supporters than his opponent's,
[02:46.53]he has a better chance of winning the election than they.
[02:50.02]如果一个候选人的热情支持者的百分比高于他的对手，他获胜的几率就比其他人要高。
[02:53.51]Pollsters may count only those whom they consider to be "likely voters".
[02:57.68]测验专家们也许只计算那些他们认为“有希望的选民”。
[03:01.86]If we look at polls that are conducted over time, we can often detect a trend.
[03:06.54]如果我们看一看一个时期以来的测验结果，我们常常可以发现一种趋势。
[03:11.22]We can tell if a candidate is gaining
[03:14.04]通过比较最新测验和较早测验的结果，
[03:16.86]or losing support when we compare the most recent poll to earlier ones.
[03:20.88]我们可以知道候选人是赢得了更多的支持，还是失去了原有的支持
[03:24.90]Polls often ask potential(those who could be) voters what they like
[03:34.86]or dislike about each candidate.
[03:37.27]测验中常常询问潜在的（可能成为）选民他们对每个候选人的好恶。
[03:39.69]The campaign organizers then use those results
[03:46.64]to help them decide which issues to stress or which positions to clarify.
[03:50.73]竞选组织者利用这样的结果来决定强调的重点和需要澄清的立场。
[03:54.81]They can also determine which voters to target with their messages.
[03:58.59]他们还可以确定把哪些选民作为目标群体。
[04:02.36]Because no two people are alike,
[04:08.03]polls can never be perfect predictors of the real vote.
[04:11.86]由于人都有个性，民意测验永远也不可能万无一失地预测真正的投票结果。
[04:15.69]But they can give important clues as to where things may be heading.
[04:19.72]但是它们可以为局势的走向提供重要的结索。
[04:23.76]At the very least, if you like politics, polls can be great entertainment.
[04:28.13]如果你喜欢政治的话，民意测验至少也是很好的娱乐方式。
[04:32.51]A Good President
[04:34.80]不错的总统
[04:37.08]The results of the poll show Bill Clinton's approval rating
[04:44.03]has gone up in his second term.
[04:46.56]民意调查的结果显示比尔.克林顿的工作支持率在他的第二任期内提高了。
[04:49.10]Do you find that interest-ing?
[04:51.28]你觉得有意思吗？
[04:53.46]Well, I think Clinton deserves high marks for doing his job generally,
[04:57.48]我觉得克林顿应对工作的总体能力是应该获得高分的，
[05:01.51]but he may get low marks for his honesty and personal image.
[05:05.24]但是他在诚实和个人形象方面可能会得到较低的分数。
[05:08.98]That is exactly what the poll shows.
[05:11.55]民意调查的结果正是如此。
[05:14.12]Although the tating of Clinton as a person
[05:19.69]has gone down in the last two years of his term,
[05:25.62]his approval rating is as high as 66 percent.
[05:29.34]虽然在任期的最后两年中他的个人支持率下降了，他的工作支持率却上升到了66%。
[05:33.06]I don't find this surprising.
[05:35.14]我觉得这不奇怪。
[05:37.21]The poll data sound quite righth.
[05:39.49]调查数据听起来很有道理。
[05:41.76]He is a good president.
[05:43.75]他是个不错的总统。
[05:45.73]But the poll says only 15 percent say
[05:51.37]he will be remem-bered as an outstanding president.
[05:54.95]但是根据民意显示，只有15%的人认为人们会把他作为一位杰出的总统铭记在心。
[05:58.53]A Good President
[06:03.06]不错的总统
[06:07.60]The results of the poll show Bill Clinton's approval rating
[06:14.67]has gone up in his second term.
[06:17.10]民意调查的结果显示比尔.克林顿的工作支持率在他的第二任期内提高了。
[06:19.53]Do you find that interest-ing?
[06:21.75]你觉得有意思吗？
[06:23.97]Well, I think Clinton deserves high marks for doing his job generally,
[06:28.01]我觉得克林顿应对工作的总体能力是应该获得高分的，
[06:32.05]but he may get low marks for his honesty and personal image.
[06:35.77]但是他在诚实和个人形象方面可能会得到较低的分数。
[06:39.49]That is exactly what the poll shows.
[06:42.17]民意调查的结果正是如此。
[06:44.85]Although the tating of Clinton as a person
[06:50.41]has gone down in the last two years of his term,
[06:56.37]his approval rating is as high as 66 percent.
[07:00.05]虽然在任期的最后两年中他的个人支持率下降了，他的工作支持率却上升到了66%。
[07:03.73]I don't find this surprising.
[07:05.86]我觉得这不奇怪。
[07:07.99]The poll data sound quite righth.
[07:10.33]调查数据听起来很有道理。
[07:12.67]He is a good president.
[07:14.55]他是个不错的总统。
[07:16.43]But the poll says only 15 percent say
[07:22.07]he will be remem-bered as an outstanding president.
[07:34.00]但是根据民意显示，只有15%的人认为人们会把他作为一位杰出的总统铭记在心。 |