The crisis in world financial and stock markets has not dramatically affected most African nations. But African economists say the continent could experience considerable repercussions as lending and investment abilities tighten in the industrialized world.
世界金融市场和股票市场面临的危机到目前为止并没有给非洲各国带来重大的冲击。不过，当地的经济学家们表示，随著工业化国家借贷和投资能力日益紧缩，非洲地区也会受到相当大的影响。
African economists note that African financial institutions have, so far, been spared the market-shaking collapses seen in the developed world.
非洲地区的经济学家们指出，到目前为止，震撼了发达国家的一系列崩溃现象，还没有特别影响到非洲的金融体制。
The head of Pan-African Capital Holdings in Johannesburg, Wiseman Nkuhlu, says this is because African banks have not engaged in high-risk lending as seen in the United States and Europe.
总部设在南非约翰内斯堡的泛非资本持有公司的负责人纳库鲁说， 这是因为非洲地区的银行没有像美国和欧洲地区的银行那样，从事各种高风险的借贷。
"The markets of African countries are not as sophisticated as the markets in the U.S. and Europe, especially when it comes to the securitization of mortgage bonds which is behind this crisis," said Nkuhlu.
他说：“非洲各国的市场机制没有美欧地区的市场那么纷繁复杂，特别是在直接造成这场危机的房屋贷款领域。”
The failure of mortgage bonds, or housing loans, due to rising interest rates in Western nations sparked the crisis.
引发西方国家金融危机的根本原因是利率上涨导致借贷者无法偿还房屋贷款。
Mortgage bonds are not common in most African nations. But Nkuhlu says the disruption they have caused may affect Africa's economic growth rate of five percent or more in many countries.
但是，房贷在大多数非洲国家并不普遍。不过，纳库鲁说，西方国家的金融危机可能影响到非洲许多国家保持的5%和更多的经济成长。
"This crisis is of great concern because it may result in increased risk averseness on the part of banks and reduced [investment] flows to the region. The flows that have been responsible for the high levels of growth may actually decline if the crisis continues," he said.
“这场危机很令人担忧，因为它可能带来的后果就是银行方面忌讳风险从而减少对这个地区的投资。推动这个地区高速发展的资金会随著危机的继续而下降。”
The director of Ghana's Development Policy Institute, Nii Moi Thompson, agrees, saying the effects of the global crisis on Africa are likely to be indirect.
加纳开发政策研究所主任尼-莫伊-汤姆逊也持有相同观点，认为全球危机对非洲的影响可能是间接的。
"One of the more likely indirect effects is the decline in remittances to African countries as unemployment rises in North America, Europe and other places. Those Africans who live there and regularly send monies home are less likely to be in a position to send home these monies," he said.
“更有可能出现的间接影响是，在北美、欧洲和其他地区失业率上升的时候，寄到非洲国家的汇款会下滑。居住在那些地区并且经常寄钱回家的人就不大有能力再往家里汇款了。”
In addition, he says as Western governments try to pay for their billion-dollar rescue packages they might reduce foreign aid programs. Private humanitarian groups, facing a drop in donations, might have to do the same.
汤姆逊另外补充说，当西方政府试图偿付数千亿美元的救市计划的同时，它们也可能会减少对外援助计划。而正面临捐款减少的民间人道组织，也可能采用相同的做法。
Some experts worry that the crisis could delay large-scale agriculture and infrastructure projects and could even threaten social programs to improve health, education and sanitation.
有些专家担忧金融危机可能拖延大规模的农业以及基础建设计划，并甚至可能威胁到改善健康、教育以及卫生的社会计划。
Nevertheless, the experts say there could be some positive effects. Thompson says interest rates will probably decline.
不过，专家说这也可能有正面的影响。汤姆逊说利率可能会下降。
"As part of the effort to survive the crisis, these Western governments will have to keep interest rates down. So if that leads to lower debt servicing then that will be better for us," he said.
“作为渡过金融危机的一部分努力，西方政府将必须保持低利率。所以如果这导致了较低的债务，则将对我们有利。”
Another benefit could be lower prices for petroleum, food and other basic goods due to a decline in demand.
另一项利益可能是由于需求减少，导致石油、粮食以及其他基本商品的价格降低。
South African economist Nkuhlu says he is optimistic that developed nations will remain committed to improving the quality of life in Africa.
南非经济学家纳库鲁说，他对于发达国家将保持改善非洲人民生活品质的承诺，感到乐观。
"The commitments and the relationship between the developed world and Africa in particular has matured, reached a point where the commitments are likely to be sustained even while under these difficult circumstances, possibly at slightly reduced levels," he said.
纳库鲁说：“发达国家与非洲之间的承诺与关系，实质上已经成熟，并且已经达到即使在困难的情况之下，也只会有稍微减少的程度。”
Thompson says other benefits from the crisis are the lessons to be learned, especially from the structural adjustment programs that sought to reduce government's role in the economy and encourage free market reforms.
汤姆逊说，金融危机带来的其他利益还有人们从当中学到的教训，尤其是在为了减少政府在经济中扮演的角色、以及鼓励自由市场改革所做的结构性调整计划方面。
"The lessons are clear, that market forces can in fact be evil forces and it takes effective, responsive and competent institutions to contain them," he said.
他说：“这个教训很明显的是，市场力量事实上可能是邪恶的，并且需要有一个有效的、负责任的、并且有能力的机构来规范它们。”
But he cautions against excessive moves to reassert government involvement in the economy.
但他也反对政府过多介入经济。
"We have been there before. But the problem was that we moved from one extreme to the other," he said. "There needs to be some sense of balance, some sense of moderation as to how far the markets should be allowed to go and how far the government can maintain some degree of oversight over the markets to ensure that they are productive without necessarily being destructive."
汤姆逊说：“我们以前经历过这些。但问题是我们从一个极端转到另一个极端。在面对市场应该有多大的自由程度，以及政府应当对市场保持何种程度的监督方面，的确需要有一些平衡感、一些协调感，来保证市场是有生产力的，而不一定具有毁灭性。”
But the president of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, concluded that the crisis means little to the average African.
但塞内加尔总统阿卜杜拉耶·瓦德，却得出金融危机对于一般非洲人并没有什么意义的结论。
"Who cares if the bourgeois can no longer travel or live in comfort. The greatest menace to most Africans is hunger," he said. "The amount of investment needed to feed people and create jobs in Africa is a fraction of the money being spent on the global financial crisis."
瓦德说：“谁在乎资产阶级再也不能舒适的旅行或居住。非洲人民最大的威胁是饥饿。”瓦德还说，能够在非洲喂饱人民并且创造工作机会的投资，跟拿来拯救全球金融危机的金钱相比，不过是九牛一毛。 |