Stocks in Hong Kong and Japan fell and the U.S. dollar rose a day after China raised interest rates for the first time since December 2007. Economists interpret the move as a sign that authorities are taking a more aggressive stance against inflation and bank lending.
中国在星期三提高利率,这是2007年12月以来头一次,受其影响,香港和日本股市下挫,美元上涨。经济学家将此举解读为中国当局正在采取更加积极的姿态以遏制通货膨胀和银行借贷过度的信号。
Chinese borrowers will now have to pay at least 0.25 percentage points more interest on their loans. China's central bank increased the cost of borrowing late Tuesday, ahead of releasing inflation figures for September.
中国的借贷人现在开始将不得不为他们的贷款再多支付至少0.25个百分点的利息。星期二晚些时候,中国央行在9月份通胀数据即将发布前,宣布增加借贷成本。
Higher inflation rate
Market analysts expect the inflation rate to be higher than the 3.5 percent recorded in August – already the fastest pace in nearly two years. They think China hopes higher rates will cool price increases.
市场分析人士预期,9月份的通货膨胀率将高于8月份的3.5%,这已经是近两年来的最高通胀率。分析师认为,中国希望高利率能够缓和物价上涨的趋势。
Jan Lambregts, global head of financial markets research at Rabobank, says the central bank is also trying to slow lending.
荷兰合作银行金融市场研究部全球总监林伯仁说,中国央行也在试图减缓借贷。
"Chinese policy makers are very unhappy about bank lending and they want to curb that more…. It's really a warning shot, to those banks – 'curb your bank lending, we're serious,'" Lambregts said.
林伯仁说:“中国的决策者对银行借贷感到非常不满。他们希望在这方面加强限制。他们这次的举措对那些银行来说确是一次警告,告诉他们:‘控制你们的银行贷款,我们是认真的。’”
Credit boom
For the first nine months of the year, bank lending reached $948 billion – just 19 percent shy of the government's target for the year. The credit boom has sparked a surge in property prices nationwide.
今年1月至9月,中国的银行借贷达到9千4百80亿美元,已经是政府全年贷款目标的81%。信贷扩张造成全国房地产价格暴涨。
Last week, the central bank asked six major banks to raise the ratio of deposits they hold as reserves, which reduces the amount available for lending.
上个星期,中国央行要求六大银行提高存款准备金率,减少了它们用于发放贷款的资金。
With the increase, the one-year lending rate now stands at 5.56 percent, while the deposit rate climbs to 2.5 percent. China had not moved its interest rates in nearly three years.
利率上调之后,目前的一年期贷款利率为5.56%,存款利率上升到2.5%。中国已经有将近三年没有调整利率了。
On Wednesday, stock prices in Hong Kong declined just under 1 percent, led by property companies. Japan's Nikkei index fell by 1.6 percent. But Shanghai managed to claw back losses earlier in the day. And in Seoul and Taipei, main stock indexes closed higher.
星期三,香港股市在房地产板块领跌下,下挫幅度略过1%。日经指数下滑1.6%。但沪市在低开后一路震荡上攻,顽强收回大部分失地。首尔和台北的主要股指收高。
Investment money
A flow of investment money from developed economies seeking higher returns could complicate China's efforts to slow its economy. The problem could worsen if the U.S. Federal Reserve increases the amount of money in circulation in the coming weeks to stimulate the American economy.
尽管中国努力为经济降温,但是来自发达经济体的投资不断流入中国,寻求高收益回报,使得中国减缓经济增速的努力变得更加复杂。如果美联储在接下来的几个星期增加货币流通量以刺激美国经济,中国面临的局势将更加艰难。
Strong foreign investment flows may boost China's currency. A stronger yuan would make imported commodities cheaper, helping manage inflation. Lambregts says expectations of more rate increases could have an influence on the exchange rate.
不过,强劲的外国投资可能导致人民币升值。人民币走强将使进口商品价格更加低廉,有利于控制通货膨胀。林伯仁说,市场对中国可能进一步加息的预期会给汇率带来影响。
"I think we should take a broader view, that in terms of hot money inflow, any prospect of further tightening on the monetary front only increases the feeling that you should be in China," he added.
林伯仁说:“我觉得我们应该将眼光放得更开阔一些,在热钱流入的问题上,任何在货币方面进一步紧缩的前景都只会让人觉得更应该待在中国。”
The yuan's exchange rate is tightly managed by the central bank, although it has risen 2.5 percent against the dollar since June. But on Wednesday, the dollar recorded its biggest gain against the yuan since June, after the Chinese central bank sharply lowered the reference rate for yuan movements.
尽管人民币兑美元汇率自6月份以来已经上涨2.5个百分点,但这一汇率仍受到中国央行的严格监管。星期三,在央行大幅降低人民币参考汇率之后,美元兑人民币汇率达到6月以来的最高点。 |